Economy
Fitch Affirms Nigeria’s Rating at B-, Says Inflation May Remain High
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default outlook at ‘B-‘ with a stable outlook, listing the country’s major strengths as a large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves.
In its report released over the weekend, Fitch stated that the rating was constrained by weak governance, structurally low non-oil revenue, high hydrocarbon dependence, security challenges, high inflation, low net foreign exchange (FX) reserves, and ongoing weakness in the exchange-rate framework.
It acknowledged that the government had taken important steps to reduce fuel subsidies and reform the exchange rate framework much more quickly than it anticipated and had ambitions to substantially raise revenue.
“However, there has recently been some backtracking on reforms, notably a lower degree of price discovery in the FX market than in late June, raising doubt about the strength of this positive momentum,” Fitch said.
“In addition, new data on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) suggests its net foreign-exchange position is substantially weaker than we previously understood. These factors are reflected in the stable outlook,” the rating agency stated.
While there has been faster reform progress, constraints remain, Fitch noted, highlighting President Bola Tinubu’s government’s removal of fuel subsidies, which cost nearly two per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022.
“It also unified the multiple exchange rate windows, and the official investors and exporter rate was allowed to depreciate by close to 40 per cent, with renewed volatility around end-October,” it stated.
Fitch also explained that it viewed the cabinet, particularly the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, and the new CBN governor, Mr Yemi Cardoso, as supportive of reforms.
However, it said there were still sizeable socio-political challenges to implementation, including an acceleration in inflation, which could account for the recent backtracking of some reforms.
On the challenging exchange rate liberalisation, the agency noted that FX shortages continued to weigh on economic activity and further FX liberalisation and deter foreign capital.
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was another outstanding performance for the Nigerian Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, March 17, as it further appreciated against the US Dollar by N8.46 or 0.62 per cent to trade at N1,344.04/$1, in contrast to Monday’s closing rate of N1,357.77/$1.
It also gained N6.85 against the Euro in the official FX market during the session to sell at N1,551.46/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,558.31/€1, but weakened against the Pound Sterling by N6.33 to close at N1,795.87/£1 versus Monday’s value of N1,789.54/£1.
At the GTBank forex counter, the Naira improved its value against the Dollar yesterday by N20 to settle at N1,365/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,385/$1, and in the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1.
With over $50 billion in foreign reserves, analysts assert that the outlook for the Naira is positive, powered by expectations of increased forex receipts from Nigeria’s hydrocarbon sales, as potential disruptions to global oil supply have increased volatility in energy markets.
The pressure that has piled on the local currency appeared to ease, buoyed by higher oil prices that have continued to bolster market sentiment.
Call for allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz was ignored, prompting traders to speculate that a continued closure is likely, which means oil prices will remain higher.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was in green ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. There are no expectations that the US central bank will move rates at its Wednesday meeting, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s tone regarding the inflation outlook could prove a catalyst.
Analysts noted that a hawkish tone alongside hot February Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data could weigh on equities and crypto, but Mr Powell’s signal that the Federal Reserve is treating rising oil prices as a temporary shock could extend the crypto rally.
Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 2.6 per cent to $0.2905, TRON (TRX) grew by 2.3 per cent to $0.3033, Ripple (XRP) jumped 1.2 per cent to $1.52, Ethereum (ETH) rose 0.9 per cent to $2,320.83, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased by 0.8 per cent to $0.1005, Solana (SOL) gained 0.6 per cent to sell at $94.11, and Bitcoin (BTC) went up by 0.3 per cent to $74,073.07.
However, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 0.3 per cent to close at $672.27, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil was up more than 3 per cent on Tuesday as renewed Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) heightened concerns about the worsening outlook for global supply.
Brent crude futures appreciated by $3.21 or 3.2 per cent to $103.42 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.71 or 2.9 per cent to trade at $96.21 per barrel.
Prices had fallen previously after some vessels sailed through the critical Strait of Hormuz, a vital gateway for about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade
The Iran war shows no signs of abating as it renewed attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Tuesday, causing oil loading at the port of Fujairah to be at least partly halted after the third attack in four days ignited a fire at the export terminal.
Fujairah, located on the Gulf of Oman just outside the Strait of Hormuz, is a critical exit point for oil volumes equivalent to roughly 1 per cent of global demand.
The attacks on oil installations by Iran and the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have traders worried for long-term impairment to supply that could keep prices elevated.
The effective closure of the strait has forced the UAE, which is the third-largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to reduce its output by more than half.
Several allies of the US rebuffed President Donald Trump’s call on Monday to send warships to escort shipping through the strait.
On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said France would never take part in operations to unblock the strait, and would only participate in a coalition that could provide freedom of navigation once hostilities ended.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration reiterated its position that they see the Iran conflict lasting weeks, not months.
The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mr Fatih Birol, has suggested member countries could release more oil, in addition to the 400 million barrels they have already agreed to draw from strategic reserves.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 10 per cent equity stake has been acquired by Odu’a Investment Company Limited in a subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc, FCMB Pensions Limited.
The move is aimed at strengthening its presence in Nigeria’s growing pension industry.
The company disclosed that the transaction was completed after receiving all required regulatory approvals from the National Pension Commission (PenCom) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also been duly notified.
Odu’a Investment said the acquisition represents a strategic investment in a resilient and steadily expanding segment of Nigeria’s financial services sector.
The company added that the deal also reinforces FCMB Pensions’ shareholder base through the entry of a long-term institutional investor.
Chairman of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Mr Bimbo Ashiru, said the investment aligns with the organisation’s strategy of partnering with strong institutions operating in sectors critical to Nigeria’s long-term economic stability.
“This investment reflects Odu’a’s strategy of partnering with strong institutions operating in sectors that are central to Nigeria’s long-term economic stability and growth,” he said in a statement.
“The pension industry plays a critical role in mobilising long-term savings and strengthening the financial system. FCMB Pensions has built a solid platform serving contributors across Nigeria, and we see a significant opportunity to support its continued growth and impact,” he added.
Also commenting on the transaction, the Managing Director of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Mr Abdulrahman Yinusa, described the deal as a vote of confidence in FCMB Pensions’ leadership and long-term prospects.
“Our partnership with FCMB Group Plc reflects confidence in FCMB Pensions’ strategy, leadership, and long-term potential. Together, we will work to expand its reach, support its strategic objectives, and deliver sustained value to contributors and other stakeholders,” Mr Yinusa said.
The investment brings together two established institutions with complementary strengths and a shared focus on long-term value creation. According to the company, the partnership positions FCMB Pensions to deepen market penetration and enhance service delivery within Nigeria’s contributory pension scheme.
Odu’a Investment Company Limited is an investment holding company jointly owned by the governments of the six South-West states of Nigeria.
The firm manages a diversified portfolio spanning real estate, financial services, hospitality, agriculture, and industrial investments, with a mandate to generate sustainable economic value and support regional development.
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