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Economy

Nigeria’s GDP Grows 0.27% in Q4 2018 to 2.38%

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GDP Nigeria growth

By Dipo Olowookere

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, February 12, 2019 released Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the fourth quarter of 2018.

In the figures released on its website this morning, the stats office said the GDP appreciated by 0.27 percent to settle at 2.38 percent, compared with 2.11 percent posted in the corresponding period of 2017.

The stats office disclosed that Q4 2018 growth indicated a rise of 0.55 percent when compared with the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018, while on a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 5.31 percent.

The fourth quarter growth performance implies that real GDP grew at an annual growth rate of 1.93 percent in 2018, compared with 0.82 percent recorded in 2017, an increase of 1.09 percent.

During the quarter, aggregate nominal GDP stood at N35.231 trillion, which is higher than N31.275 trillion recorded in Q4 2017, a nominal growth rate of 12.65 percent.

For 2018, nominal GDP was therefore recorded at N127.763 trillion representing a nominal growth rate of 12.36 percent when compared with N113.712 trillion recorded in 2017.

According to the NBS, in the fourth quarter of 2018, average daily oil production stood at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the 1.95 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017, and 1.94mbpd in Q3 2018.

The oil sector recorded a real GDP growth rate of –1.62 percent (year-on-year) in Q4 2018, indicating a decline of –12.81 percent relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017. However, when compared with Q3 2018, growth increased by 1.29 percent and on an annual basis, real GDP growth for the oil sector stood at 1.14 percent as against 4.69 percent recorded in 2017.

The stats office said the oil sector contributed 7.06 percent to real GDP in Q4 2018, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2017 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.35 percent and 9.38 percent respectively.

For 2018, the contribution of the oil sector to aggregate real GDP was 8.60 percent, slightly lower when compared with 8.67 percent in 2017.

On its part, the non-oil sector grew by 2.70 percent in real terms during the fourth quarter of 2018, which is 1.25 percent higher than the growth rate recorded in Q4 2017, and 0.38 percent higher than the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018. On an annual basis, the non-oil sector recorded a growth rate of 2.00 percent in 2018, performing considerably better than 0.47 percent seen in 2017.

It was gathered that the key performing activities during the quarter were information and communication, transportation & storage, arts & entertainment, agriculture and manufacturing.

The non-oil sector contributed 92.94 percent to real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018, slightly higher than the 92.65 percent seen in Q4 2017. For 2018, annual contribution was recorded at 91.40 percent against 91.33 percent in year 2017.

Key performing activities on an annual basis include transport, information & communication, electricity, water, as well as arts & entertainment.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Cadbury Nigeria, Others Shrink Equity Market by 1.41%

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Cadbury Nigeria

By Dipo Olowookere

The refusal of the bears to give the bulls a chance further depleted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited by 1.41 per cent on Thursday.

Persistent selling pressure left the equity market depressed at the close of business yesterday, with profit-taking still witnessed in the financial services sector.

The All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 3,397.80 points to 237,404.92 points from 240,802.72 points, and the market capitalisation shrank by N2.179 trillion to N152.266 trillion from N154.445 trillion.

Africa Prudential dropped 10.00 per cent to trade at N11.70, Cadbury Nigeria lost 10.00 per cent to finish at N62.10, Tripple Gee crashed by 10.00 per cent to N3.60, John Holt depreciated by 9.93 per cent to N12.25, and McNichols stumbled by 9.33 per cent to N6.80.

On the other side, Legend Internet grew by 9.52 per cent to N5.75, NPF Microfinance Bank gained 9.18 per cent to settle at N5.35, Transcorp advanced by 7.32 per cent to N44.00, Neimeth improved by 7.03 per cent to N9.90, and DAAR Communications added 5.29 per cent to trade at N1.79.

Analysis of the price movement log indicated that the mood remained bearish, as Customs Street ended with 15 price gainers and 39 price losers, representing a negative market breadth index.

The activity level went up yesterday after investors bought and sold 691.6 million stocks worth N116.9 billion in 50,025 deals, in contrast to the 663.0 million stocks valued at N40.0 billion transacted in 51,143 deals on Wednesday. This showed that the trading volume increased by 4.31 per cent, the trading value surged by 192.25 per cent, and the number of deals decreased by 2.19 per cent.

 First Holdco was the busiest equity during the trading day, with a turnover of 115.8 million units valued at N7.1 billion. Access Holdings traded 109.7 million units for N2.5 billion, Dangote Cement exchanged 71.5 million units for N83.4 billion, Japaul transacted 26.0 million units worth N83.6 million, and FCMB sold 25.9 million units valued at N285.9 million.

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Economy

Brent Nears $80 on Fresh Doubt About US-Iran Ceasefire

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Brent crude futures

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices ​rose on Thursday after American Vice President JD Vance warned Israel against further attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, raising ‌doubts about the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

Brent crude futures settled at $79.85 a barrel after chalking up 30 cents or ​0.38 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 19 cents or 0.25 per cent to finish at $76.60 a barrel.

US Vice President JD Vance on Thursday issued an extraordinary rebuke to Israeli critics of the Iran deal, warning them not to alienate their “only powerful ally” left in the world.

The deal gives negotiators 60 days to reach an agreement on the status of Iran’s nuclear ​programme and set up a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran and other financial incentives.

Mr Vance told members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet to “wake up and smell the reality,” amid growing tensions between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.

Market analysts noted that the statements about Israel may have put things back on edge, as the two countries jointly launched the war on Iran on February 28.

Ultimately, oil markets will be focused on what happens in the Strait ​of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flowed before the start of the war.

Analysts expect a gradual recovery in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while industry experts have cautioned that prices may not plummet as demand recovers and inventories are refilled.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Gulf exports to normalise to pre-war levels by the end of July, with crude production recovering by October. The bank estimates ​that a normalisation in exports to ​pre-war levels might be achieved ⁠with a 13 million barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels to around 70 per cent of pre-war levels.

Markets will be watching closely in the coming week to see exactly how much oil begins to flow, especially Iranian oil, which will no longer be sanctioned thanks to the latest ceasefire agreement.

China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, is forecast to consume 753 million metric tons of petrol in 2026, down 4.9 per cent from 2025 amid a pivot to new energy and high oil prices.

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Economy

FG Releases Transition Guidelines for Tax Acts 2025

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Tax Acts 2025

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The transition guidelines on the Tax Acts 2025 to provide direction to taxpayers, tax practitioners, revenue authorities and other stakeholders on how to address various issues arising from the old regime to the new framework have been released by the federal government.

The framework was issued on Thursday via a statement signed by the Director of Press Relations in the Federal Ministry of Finance, Efe Ovuakporie.

The guidelines set out the process for transition from the repealed tax laws to the new tax framework effective January 1, 2026.

Under the guidelines, the Tax Acts 2025, comprising the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, apply from the respective commencement dates as enacted in each law. In particular, January 1, 2026, for the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025.

Tax liabilities, assessments, audits, investigations, disputes and enforcement actions relating to periods before that date will be treated under the repealed tax laws, the notice stated.

Tax returns relating to accounting periods ending before January 1, 2026, will be filed under the previous tax laws, while returns relating to accounting periods ending from January 1, 2026, onward will be administered under the new tax framework.

The document also covers the treatment of income taxes, transaction taxes, development levies, tax incentives, exemptions, record-keeping obligations and transactions that span both the old and new tax regimes.

Existing tax incentives and exemptions granted under the repealed laws will remain in place until their expiration dates. New applications and pending requests, however, will be considered under the provisions of the Tax Acts 2025.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, described the Tax Acts 2025 as a significant milestone in Nigeria’s tax reform programme, noting that the Guidelines set out how existing obligations, ongoing matters and future transactions will be treated under the new regime.

According to the Minister, the guidelines are anchored on three key principles – clarity, fairness and administrative certainty, adding that they are intended to promote uniform implementation and support effective administration across the Nigeria Revenue Service, State Internal Revenue Services, the FCT Internal Revenue Service, Local Government Revenue Committees, tax practitioners and taxpayers nationwide.

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