Economy
Inflation to Moderate to 11.01% in July—FSDH
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
It has been predicted that inflation rate in Nigeria for the month of July 2019 will go down to 11.01 percent from 11.22 percent recorded in the month of June 2019.
In their Inflation Watch report, analysts at the research arm of Lagos-based investment company, FSDH Merchant Bank Ltd, attributed the expected easing of the rate “largely to the harvest season.”
The inflation rate target of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is between 6 percent and 9 percent and as earlier noted, FSDH said Nigeria will unlikely achieve a single-digit rate of inflation in the short-term.
“We must also note that an increase in the inflation rate is not entirely bad, as a reasonable increase in general prices is important to encourage production.
“No manufacturer will be encouraged to produce in an environment when the prices of the goods that are produced are going down. What most countries and central banks are guarding against is an excessive increase in general prices,” the report said.
Business Post reports that on Friday, August 16, 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the July 2019 inflation figure to the general public and if this prediction is correct, it would be the second consecutive month the inflation rate is moderating and it would be the lowest inflation rate recorded in Nigeria since February 2016.
In the last few years, the apex monetary authority has been initiating several policies to help promote the agricultural sector. The aim of this is to boost agricultural yields, which would in turn kerb general price increases.
According to FSDH, the CBN’s focus on the agricultural sector is deliberate, as food prices significantly affect the country’s inflation rate.
Looking at the movement of food prices in the international market, the overall price of a basket of certain food items dropped in July relative to June 2019.
In its July 2019 Food Price Index, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) observed that the prices of food items in the international market decreased during the month.
The FAO further noted that the prices of cereal, dairy products and sugar decreased between June and July 2019. The drop offset the increase in the prices of oils and meat recorded during the same period.
Despite the expected decrease in the inflation rate in the next few months, FSDH Research expects increased volatility in the inter-bank rates and a gradual increase in the rates at the Open Market Operations (OMOs) from August through to December 2019.
“This is due to huge maturities in excess of N9.62 trillion of government securities which we expect to hit the Nigerian financial market during the period.
“Ordinarily, the expected large inflow of funds into the financial system may lead to inflationary pressure.
“In this situation, the way to manage the expected high liquidity is for the CBN to increase its ‘mopping-up’ activities in the inter-bank market, leading to an increase in the OMO rate.
“Therefore, we conclude that the next few months will throw up some interesting financing and investment opportunities in the Nigerian financial market,” the report said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rallied by 1.70 per cent on Thursday, June 25, after three price gainers overpowered the two price losers recorded at the close of business.
Consequently, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N43.79 billion to N2.618 trillion from N2.574 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 72.96 points to close at 4,362.32 points, in contrast to Wednesday’s 4,289.36 points.
Yesterday, the price advancers were led by Nipco Plc, which chalked up N31.79 to close at N349.76 per unit versus the preceding day’s N317.97 per unit. Okitipupa Plc gained N18.00 to end at N298.00 per share versus the previous session’s N280.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N7.11 to N86.79 per unit from N79.68 per unit.
On the flip side, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc crumbled by 32 Kobo to close at N21.09 per share compared with the N21.41 per share it closed at midweek, and Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 25 Kobo to N2.51 per unit from N2.76 per unit.
During the session, the value of securities traded by investors went down by 86.7 per cent to N10.9 million from the preceding session’s N82.9 million, and the volume of securities dropped 84.9 per cent to 10.9 million units from the previous 82.9 million, while the number of deals grew by 84.2 per cent to 35 deals from 19 deals.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.4 million units exchanged for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further suffered a 0.64 per cent decline on Thursday as the bears tightened their grip on the bourse.
For the second straight session, all the key sectors of Customs Street pointed south, with the energy counter down by 5.22 per cent. The insurance index slumped by 2.59 per cent, the banking space depreciated by 0.28 per cent, and the consumer goods segment moderated by 0.06 per cent, while the industrial goods sector was flat, though with a marginal fall.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,493.71 points to 233,580.83 points from 235,074.54 points, and the market capitalisation retreated by N959 billion to N149.888 trillion from N150.847 trillion.
Investor sentiment remained weak after a negative market breadth index, as there were 21 price gainers and 34 price losers.
Aradel and Deap Capital went down by 10.00 per cent each to N1,575.00 and N4.05, respectively. Trans-Nationwide Express fell by 9.90 per cent to N3.64, Regency Alliance slipped by 9.57 per cent to N85 Kobo, and C&I Leasing dipped by 9.48 per cent to N28.12.
Conversely, Red Star Express grew by 9.60 per cent to N24.55, Legend Internet expanded by 9.09 per cent to N6.00, Neimeth appreciated by 7.10 per cent to N8.30, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 5.45 per cent to N8.70, and Ellah Lakes improved by 4.65 per cent to N9.00.
Yesterday, market participants traded 393.7 million equities valued at N19.2 billion in 45,813 deals compared with the 488.1 million equities worth N20.9 billion transacted in 46,239 deals recorded a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 19.34 per cent, 8.13 per cent, and 0.92 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock for the session was Access Holdings with a turnover of 39.1 million units worth N896.2 million, Chams traded 24.5 million units valued at N96.5 million, Fidelity Bank sold 24.1 million units for N436.9 million, Sterling Holdings exchanged 23.8 million units valued at N182.2 million, and Zenith Bank transacted 18.9 million units worth N2.1 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a marginal gain of 43 Kobo or 0.03 per cent against the United States Dollar on Wednesday, June 25, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to sell for N1,380.11/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,380.54/$1.
However, the Nigerian currency lost N3.21 against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session to close at N1,818.84/£1, in contrast to Wednesday’s exchange rate of N1,815.63/£1, and against the Euro, it fell by N3.21 to trade at N1,566.84/€1 versus midweek’s value of N1,563.63/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depreciated against the Dollar at the GTBank FX deck yesterday by N3 to sell for N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,380/$1, and at the black market window, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1.
Interbank FX turnover at the NFEM window surged by about 56 per cent day-on-day to close at $195.371 million from $125.588 million reported on Wednesday, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The Naira continues to feel the impact of rising FX payments and a strong US Dollar amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the central bank, with more than six weeks of no support for the local currency.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased further to $51.142 billion, while oil prices continue to be held in the $70 range by developments in the geopolitical scene.
Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin sank below $60,000 as more than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $842 million of the damage. About 148,500 traders were wiped out. The largest single position was a $38 million bitcoin-dollar bet on Hyperliquid. It led at $489 million in liquidations and dropped 2.8 per cent to sell at $59,862.61.
Ethereum (ETH) crashed by 5.5 per cent to $1,554.57, Ripple (XRP) declined by 4.8 per cent to $1.03, Cardano (ADA) fell by 4.3 per cent to $0.1433, Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 3.4 per cent to sell at $0.0745, TRON (TRX) slid 2.2 per cent to $0.3215, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.8 per cent to $561.34, and Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $62.94, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.
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