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Agusto Forecasts 16.5% Growth in Nigerian Banking Loan Portfolio

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Nigerian banking loan portfolio

By Adedapo Adesanya

Agusto & Co. Limited, the pan-African credit rating agency and the foremost business information provider, has forecast a 16.5 per cent growth in the Nigerian banking loan portfolio.

This was released in its 2022 Nigerian Banking Industry Report which provides a comprehensive review of Nigeria’s banking industry and the near-term expectation for the Industry.

Agusto & Co. noted positively the resilience shown by the Nigerian banking industry in FY 2021, as the Industry’s loan portfolio grew by 21 per cent despite the weak economy and regulatory constraints.

“Notwithstanding the prevailing global supply constraints, the Russian-Ukraine crisis, and insecurity challenges that continue to hamper food and crude oil production in Nigeria, we anticipate a 16.5 per cent year-on-year loan growth in 2022 as more banks now have a better understanding of the macroeconomic headwinds,” it noted.

The firm noted in the report seen by Business Post that traditional sectors such as oil and gas, manufacturing, general commerce, and agriculture sectors are expected to drive the loan growth given the backward integration initiatives of obligors, the intervention activities of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the import-dependence nature of the Nigerian economy.

‘While the arbitrary cash reserve deductions and foreign exchange illiquidity would remain limitations to the growth of the Industry’s loan portfolio, we note that more banks are now favourably disposed to accessing the differentiated cash reserve requirement (DCRR) window to reduce the value of sterile restricted funds with the CBN.

“In the near term, we believe the Industry’s asset quality will remain acceptable, with the impaired loan ratio hovering around 6 per cent as at 31 December 2022. In our view, a proactive tightening of controls around loan origination and intensified loan monitoring will moderate the impact of the tough operating climate on the loan portfolio,” the report stated.

It was revealed that Nigeria’s banking industry remains well capitalised relative to the business risks undertaken and should remain so in the near term.

“In preparation for the full implementation of Basel III and based on the scheduled growth plans, we expect an increased appetite for perpetual bond issuances which qualify as additional tier 1 capital. We also believe that some banks will raise common equity tier 1 capital that will keep the Industry’s capital adequacy ratio above 17 per cent.”

Looking forward, “In FY 2022, Agusto & Co projects a decline in the industry’s net interest spread as the prevailing low yields on government securities, which dominate the industry’s investment securities, will moderate the impact of the uptick in interest rates. However, we anticipate an increase in the net earnings driven largely by higher trading income and electronic banking fees.

“Nevertheless, we note that the forthcoming elections and growing budget deficit have forced the FGN to modify several extant tax legislations which will moderate the banking industry’s profits. Overall, Agusto & Co expects the Industry’s pre-tax return on average equity to increase to 23 per cent (FY 2021: 20.6 per cent) in FY 2022.

“Our financial prospects for Industry are largely stable in the near term. We adjudge the industry as resilient and the current trend of banks adopting the holding company structure to diversify into other financial services segments while exercising control over subsidiaries should support the Industry’s profitability.

“The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is also another vital prospect for Nigerian banks given that financial institutions with a strong capital base and efficient network across the continent are essential for the full implementation of AfCFTA,” it added.

Overall, Agusto & Co believes the banking industry’s performance will remain moderate in the short to medium term and on this basis, adding that the outlook for the Industry is stable.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Banking

Senate Seeks CBN’s Full Disclosure on Unremitted N1.44trn Surplus

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Senate has demanded detailed explanation from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over the alleged non-remittance of N1.44 trillion in operating surplus.

The Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, chaired by Mr Tokunbo Abiru, opened its statutory briefing with a firm call for transparency at the apex bank, noting that the Auditor-General’s query on the unremitted funds required a full, clear and documented response, insisting that public trust in monetary governance depended on strict accountability.

While acknowledging the CBN’s achievements in stabilising the foreign exchange market and reducing inflation, Mr Abiru underscored that such progress must be accompanied by institutional responsibility.

He stated the Senate expected the CBN to explain the circumstances surrounding the query, outline corrective steps taken and reveal safeguards against future lapses.

This came as the Governor of the central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, appeared before the senate committee and offered an extensive review of economic conditions, asserting that Nigeria was experiencing renewed macroeconomic stability across major indicators.

Mr Cardoso attributed the progress to bold monetary reforms, foreign-exchange liberalisation and disciplined liquidity management implemented since mid-2025.

According to him, headline inflation had declined for seven consecutive months, from 34.6 per cent in November 2024 to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, marking the steepest and longest disinflation trend in over a decade.

Food inflation accruing to him also slowed to 13.12 per cent, supported by improved supply conditions and exchange-rate predictability.

The CBN governor described the foreign-exchange market as fundamentally transformed, adding that speculative attacks and arbitrage opportunities had largely disappeared.

According to him, the premium between the official and parallel markets had fallen to below two per cent, compared to over 60 per cent a year earlier. As of November 26, the naira traded at N1,442.92 per dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, stronger than the N1,551 average recorded in the first half of 2025.

He also announced a sharp rise in external reserves to $46.7 billion, the highest in nearly seven years and sufficient to cover over ten months of imports.

Diaspora remittances, he noted, had tripled to about $600 million monthly, while foreign capital inflows reached $20.98 billion in the first ten months of 2025, 70 per cent higher than in 2024 and more than four times the 2023 figure.

Cardoso further confirmed that the CBN had fully cleared the $7 billion verified FX backlog, restoring investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.

On banking-sector stability, he reported that recapitalisation efforts were progressing smoothly. Twenty-seven banks had already raised new capital, with sixteen meeting or surpassing the new regulatory thresholds ahead of the March 31, 2026 deadline, highlighting improvements in ATM cash availability, digital-payments oversight and cybersecurity compliance.

Despite the positive indicators, the Senate sought clarity on several policy decisions.

Mr Abiru pressed for explanations on the sustained 45 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), the 75 per cent CRR applied to non-Treasury Single Account public-sector deposits, FX forward settlements, mutilated naira notes in circulation, excessive bank charges, failed electronic transactions and the compliance of CBN subsidiaries with parliamentary oversight.

He also requested an update on the activities of the Financial Services Regulatory Coordinating Committee, arguing that stronger inter-agency cooperation was necessary to maintain public confidence.

The session later moved into a closed-door meeting.

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Banking

Toxic Bank Assets: AMCON Repays CBN N3.6trn, Still Owes N3trn

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AMCON headquarters

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

About N3.6 trillion has been repaid to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) by the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) since its inception in 2010.

This information was revealed by the chief executive of AMCON, Mr Gbenga Alade, during a media parley to update the press on the activities of the agency.

Mr Alade said at the moment, the organisation still owes the central bank about N3 trillion for toxic assets of banks in the country.

He praised the organisation for its asset recovery drive, stressing that when compared with others across the world, Nigeria has done well.

“It is important to stress that the corporation has done tremendously well, especially when compared to other notable government-owned Asset Management Corporations around the world.

“Based on the balance at purchase, AMCON outperformed other Asset Management Corporations all over the world by achieving over 87 per cent in recoveries despite the unique challenges associated with debt recovery in Nigeria.

“The Malaysian Danaharta, which is adjudged one of the best performing Asset Management Corporation’s, only achieved 58 per cent. The Chinese Asset Management Corporation, despite its stricter laws, achieved just 33 per cent.

“Only the Korean Asset Management Corporation (KAMCO), South Korea, has achieved more recoveries than AMCON, with about 100 per cent. This was due to their brute force with which they chased the obligors.

“Despite KAMCO’s recovery records, the agency is still operational to date with slight realignments in its mandate.

“Other noted Asset Management Corporations that have transitioned into a perpetual institution of the various governments include, China Asset Management Company, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) USA, and KFW Germany.

“So, gentlemen, without sounding immodest, AMCON has done well, and we will not relent until all the outstanding debts are fully realized,” Mr Alade stated.

On the financial performance of AMCON, he said last year, the firm posted a revenue of N156.25 billion and operating expenses of N29.04 billion, while for the 2025 fiscal year should be a revenue of N215.15 billion and operating expenses of N29.06 billion.

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Banking

The Alternative Bank Opens Effurun Branch in Delta

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The Alternative Bank Effurun

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

One of the non-interest banks in Nigeria, The Alternative Bank (AltBank), has opened a new branch in Effurun, Delta State.

The new office will serve the Edo-Delta region and provide purposeful banking and real financial empowerment for individuals, entrepreneurs, and businesses, a statement from the firm stated.

The lender disclosed that the Effurun branch is a bold move in its mission to reshape banking in Nigeria.

The launch was graced by key dignitaries, including the Ovie of Uvwie Kingdom, Emmanuel Ekemejewa Sideso Abe I; the Chairman of Uvwie Local Government, Anthony O. Ofoni, represented his vice, Andrew Agagbo; and the Special Adviser to the Governor of Delta State on Community Development, Mr Ernest Airoboyi; amongst others.

The Divisional Head for South at The Alternative Bank, Mr Chukwuemeka Agada, emphasised the institution’s commitment to Warri and its surrounding communities.

“By establishing a presence here, we are initiating a transformation in the way banking serves the people of Delta. Our purpose-driven approach ensures that customers’ financial goals are not just met but exceeded,” he stated.

“This branch represents our pledge to empower Warri’s dynamic businesses and families, providing them with the tools to grow without compromise,” Mr Agada added.

“We understand the heartbeat of this community, and we are excited to integrate our bank into the fabric of this dynamic region,” he stated further.

On his part, the representative of the Ovie, Mr Samuel Eshenake, challenged the bank to facilitate development and employment within the Effurun community.

The Regional Head for Edo/Delta at The Alternative Bank, Mr Akanni Owolabi, embraced this challenge, pledging that the bank will work sustainably to drive local commerce.

“At The Alternative Bank, we are committed to being an active partner in the development of Effurun. We see this branch as a catalyst for creating opportunities, driving employment, and supporting the growth of local businesses.

“Our mission is to empower this community, ensuring that every step forward is one of progress, prosperity, and shared success.”

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