Economy
It’ll be Difficult to Sell Proposed FG’s N22.7trn 40-year Bonds at 9%—BudgIT
By Dipo Olowookere
A Nigerian civic company, BudgIT, has said, based on findings, it would be difficult for the federal government to get buyers for the proposed securitisation of the N22.7 trillion overdrafts of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) at 9 per cent per annum coupon rate.
President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday appealed to the National Assembly to reconsider his request to convert the ways and means into securities.
The bonds, to be sold to interested investors in local denomination, would have a maturity of 40 years at a coupon rate of 9 per cent.
Last week, the Senate rejected the proposal, pointing out that it must know what the government spent the money on.
The government violated the CBN act as regards the overdrafts as it was supposed to get 5 per cent of the revenue it generated in the previous fiscal year as ways and means, which must be paid back before another is given.
However, these requirements were not met by the federal government but the central bank, under the leadership of Mr Godwin Emefiele, went ahead to give more loans to the government to fund the budget deficits.
While signing the 2023 budget into law on Tuesday, Mr Buhari begged the parliament to approve the conversion of the loans to bonds to avoid the payment of an extra N1.8 trillion as interest.
“I have no intention to fetter the right of the National Assembly to interrogate the composition of this balance, which can still be done even after granting the requested approval.
“Failure to grant the securitization approval will, however, cost the Nigerian government about N1.8 trillion in additional interest in 2023, given the differential between the applicable interest rates, which is currently MPR plus 3 per cent, and the negotiated interest rate of 9 per cent and a 40-year repayment period on the securitised debt of the Ways and Means,” he had pointed out.
But BudgIT said the claims by Mr Buhari that the 40-year bonds would be sold at 9 per cent may not be totally true.
Business Post reports that the FGN savings bond currently being offered for sale by the Debt Management Office (DMO) has coupon rates higher than what the government is claiming.
The debt office is offering the 2-year FGN savings bond maturing on January 11, 2025, at 9.60 per cent and the 3-year paper maturing on January 11, 2026, at 10.60 per cent.
At the last FGN bonds held in December 2022, the debt office sold a 10-year bond at 14.75 per cent and a 20-year bond at 15.80 per cent. Based on this, it would most likely be difficult to lure investors to purchase 40-year bonds at 9 per cent when a shorter-tenor paper can be bought at almost double the coupon rate.
In a series of tweets via its official Twitter page on Thursday, BudgIT said it would be a herculean task for the government to get buyers for the bonds at the “specified rate.”
“@MBuhari has asked @nassnigeria to approve the securitization of FG’s N22.7tn debt to @cenbank, is it legal for @nassnigeria to approve the request of the FG to securitize the Ways & Means, which goes against the CBN Act?
Since 2015, the FG has asked @cenbank to provide advances to fund its fiscal deficit without any requirement for cost-cutting measures/fiscal control. The law stipulates that such advances should be limited to 5% of the previous year’s revenues. This law has not been followed.
“Also, Section 38 of the CBN Act mandates the FG to repay all advances made by the CBN to it at the end of the financial year in which the advances were received. Failure to repay the advances in full implies that the FG will not be eligible for further advances by the CBN.
“While FG has continuously breached the CBN Act, it now seeks the @nassnigeria’s approval to offload N22.7tn debt for 40 years at a 9% interest rate. Findings have shown that it will be difficult to sell such debt at the specified rate.
“Currently, the FG has been on a borrowing binge as domestic debt increased from N8.3tn in June 2015 to N21.6tn as of June 2022, & foreign debt rose from $10b in 2015 to $39.66b in 2022.
“Similarly, interest paid in Ways and Means (CBN Debt to FG) grew from N9.51b in 2017 to N1.22tn in 2021. In the meantime, the CBN’s new debt adds at least N2.5tn annually to Nigeria’s debt servicing costs.
“According to a recent MTF, Nigeria’s debt servicing cost is projected to reach N10tn in 2025. If National Assembly approves this action, FG’s public debt will rise from its current state by 59% – from $89.5b to $142 billion.
“In 2021, FG used 91% of its N4.64tn revenue to service public debt. Unless something drastic happens with revenue growth, the FG will spend more on servicing debt. This has implications for inflation, economic confidence, higher interest rates & weakened exchange rates.
“Is it legal for the National Assembly to approve the request of the Federal Government to securitise the Ways and Means, which is in clear breach of the CBN Act? More importantly, what were the borrowings used for?” the company asked.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.
The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.
The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.
On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.
OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.
Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.
In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.
In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.
These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.
Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.
They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A minority equity stake in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited has been acquired by a Nigerian energy firm, Aradel Holdings Plc.
This deal came a few days after Chappal Energies purchased a 53.85 per cent equity stake in Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Limited (ENEC).
Chappal Energies went into the deal with Equinor to take part in the oil and gas lease OML 128, including the unitised 20.21 per cent stake in the Agbami oil field, operated by Chevron.
Since production started in 2008, the Agbami field has produced more than one billion barrels of oil, creating value for Nigerian society and various stakeholders.
As part of the deal, Chappal will assume the operatorship of OML 129, which includes several significant prospects and undeveloped discoveries (Nnwa, Bilah and Sehki).
The Nnwa discovery is part of the giant Nnwa-Doro field, a major gas resource with significant potential to deliver value for Nigeria.
In a separate transaction, on July 17, 2024, Chappal and Total Energies sealed an SPA for the acquisition by Chappal of 10 per cent of the SPDC JV.
The relevant parties to this transaction are working towards closing out this transaction and Ministerial Approval and NNPC consent to accede to the Joint Operating Agreement have been obtained.
“This acquisition is in line with diversifying our asset base, deepening our gas competencies and gaining access to offshore basins using low-risk approaches.
“We recognise the strategic role of gas in Nigeria’s energy future and are happy to expand our equity holding in this critical resource.
“We are committed to the cause of developing the significant value inherent in the assets, which will be extremely beneficial to the country.
“Aradel hopes to bring its proven execution competencies to bear in supporting Chappal’s development of these opportunities,” the chief executive of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.
As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.
But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.
The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.
During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.
However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
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