Economy
Dangote Refinery to Reduce West Africa’s Petrol Imports—S&P
By Adedapo Adesanya
S&P Global Commodity Insights has projected that when the Dangote Refinery finally ramps up refining activities, it could massively reduce West Africa’s petrol imports from Europe by as much as 290,000 barrels per day.
This was disclosed during a panel discussion themed Exploring West Africa’s Oil Product Flows in a Changing Refining Landscape by S&P analysts, including Mr Joel Hanley, Mr Matthew Tracey-Cook, Ms Kelly Norways and Ms Elza Turner.
The panellists noted that the 650,000 barrels per day $19 billion facility in Lagos will before 2026, significantly change the fuels supply landscape in West Africa.
“Once we see the refinery ramp up, that could mean that West African gasoline imports or the import reliance that they have at the moment could drop by as much as 290,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2026. So really, this could become quite a dominant supplier in the West African market, subject to when we start to see those barrels hit the market in Nigeria and the local region,” said Ms Norways, Downstream Sector Oil analyst at S&P.
Also, S&P said that Nigeria recently cut the maximum sulphur content for gas oil imports from 3,000 parts per million to below 500 parts per million, thereby significantly stifling the import of the product from Europe to Nigeria.
“Once Nigeria sees Dangote reach a steady state capacity, that could mean some 327,000 barrels per day of gasoline (petrol) supply and 244,000 barrels per day of diesel or gas oil. In practice, how that splits between the domestic market and the export market remains to be seen.
“There’s a significant amount of pressure from the Nigerian government for significant volumes of that supply to flow to the domestic market to try and solve this cost of living crisis and prevent significant pay-outs that need to be made onto importing those large volumes.
“But in reality, when we see that start to scale up is still subject to debate. Dangote has been espousing some pretty punchy timelines.”
Mr Hanley also said that the Dangote refinery may also reduce the cargo that often sits off the coast of West Africa.
“If you’ve ever been to Lagos, you see these enormous queues of refined products tankers waiting there. Now, one thing that I think people thought might relieve some of the pressure and, as I said, redress the imbalance somewhat would be the Dangote refinery.
“And it’s finally got going, not fully up to speed perhaps, but we started to see a cargo coming out, which is exciting,” stated the Director at S&P.
Mr Hanley also stated that while the ramp-up is important, it was also important for the firm to look at ‘where the money is.’
“As you said, there’s pressure from the Nigerian government because, of course, they would like this much-vaunted, long-awaited, Waiting for Godot kind of refinery to supply the local market and take some of the pressure off.
“But if the international markets are prepared to pay up for that product, then it’s going to be tricky. It’s a very tricky balance to decide where that flow will go,” Mr Hanley added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Businesses in the country expect the Naira to gradually appreciate against the US Dollar between now and January 2027, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) July 2026 Business Expectations Survey Report released on Thursday.
The report showed that the Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained positive throughout the review period despite perceived macroeconomic challenges. It noted that all sectors expressed optimism about the economy, with the electricity, gas and water sector posting the highest Business Confidence Index of 59.4 points and the strongest expansion prospects for August 2026.
According to the report, “In July 2026, the Business Confidence Index was 5.7 points, reflecting continued optimistic sentiment among formal businesses.”
It attributed the positive sentiment mainly to increased demand (22.3 per cent), economic diversification (21.4 per cent), and improved access to finance (15.0 per cent). However, respondents identified inflation (27.7 per cent), energy-related challenges (23.4 per cent), insecurity (22.4 per cent), and heightened geopolitical uncertainties (16.5 per cent) as the major factors weighing on business confidence.
On the outlook by broad sector, the central bank said confidence remained positive across all sectors in July. The Industry sector recorded a modest improvement, with its index rising to 11.5 points from 10.5 points, while the Services sector increased to 3.6 points from 2.9 points.
By contrast, the Agriculture sector recorded a significant moderation, with its index falling to 3.4 points from 12.2 points.
Despite this, the apex bank said the six-month outlook remained upbeat, with confidence indices across all sectors indicating positive expectations over the review period.
On the macroeconomic outlook by region, the report noted a divergence in sentiment, with businesses in Northern Nigeria expressing stronger confidence than their Southern counterparts in July. Nevertheless, respondents across all regions maintained positive expectations for August.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A programme, tagged Probate and Unclaimed Monies Awareness and Investor Clinic, has been organised by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The event, held on Thursday, August 6, 2026, was put together to educate investors and beneficiaries on how to recover unclaimed monies and inherited investments in the Nigerian capital market.
It is part of a nationwide awareness campaign launched by the capital market regulator in collaboration with Meristem Registrars and Probate Services Limited to improve investor protection, financial literacy and confidence in the capital market.
According to the Director General of the agency, Mr Emomotimi Agama, the campaign is to help investors and beneficiaries understand the procedures for recovering investments due to them while strengthening public confidence in the Nigerian capital market.
Thousands of investors and beneficiaries across the country remain unaware that they may be entitled to unclaimed funds arising from scheme consideration, return monies or inherited investments belonging to deceased relatives, largely because they are unfamiliar with the required documentation and claims procedures.
“Investor protection remains at the heart of the Commission’s mandate. Through this awareness campaign and Investor Clinic, we are bringing regulators and market operators together to help investors and beneficiaries understand the claims process, recover investments due to them and strengthen public confidence in the Nigerian capital market,” the SEC DG stated.
At the programme, participants received one-on-one support from SEC officials, registrars and other capital market professionals on issues relating to unclaimed investments, share ownership, probate, share transmission and beneficiary claims.
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has reaffirmed plans to list the entire Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
The President made this known on Thursday while receiving a delegation of the NGX Group Plc at the State House, Abuja.
The team was led by the NGX Group chairman, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, and its chief executive, Mr Temi Popoola. The President was briefed on the capital market’s growth from about N30 trillion in 2023 to N160 trillion.
According to a statement by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, President Tinubu said the planned listing of NNPC would form a key part of his administration’s ongoing economic reforms.
He described the move as part of broader reforms aimed at expanding investment opportunities for Nigerians and deepening the country’s capital market.
“One day, not just the arms and legs, the totality of it will be listed on the Nigerian Exchange,” he said.
The President also reaffirmed that his administration’s target of building a $1 trillion economy remained achievable, citing Nigeria’s population and human capital as major advantages.
“I can see the excitement in the room. All I can do is to celebrate you all today. When we took over, it was very challenging. I had to talk to myself and define my background to accept the assets and liabilities of my predecessor. I asked for the job, and I have to do it,” President Tinubu said.
Reflecting on the administration’s monetary reforms, the President praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso’s role in restoring confidence in the financial system.
“My capable partner in one of the thinking and reasoning days was Yemi Cardoso, whom I put at CBN. We were in the negative with monetary policy and the reserve. We had N30 trillion printed, and there were liabilities. I thank you very much, Yemi Cardoso,” he said.
President Tinubu said the performance of the stock market reflected broader improvements in the Nigerian economy.
“If the stock market is doing well, then we are doing well. We can teach this in classrooms to our undergraduates. If they can be in the classroom without the harrowing feeling of how to pay and what to pay, then we can build a nation of success and prosperity. My assurance to you is that I won’t stop reading, thinking and supporting you,” he said.
The President also reiterated his belief in private sector-led investments, recalling his longstanding support for the Dangote Refinery project.
“If we can push the private sector to invest in the economy wisely, then we will grow. It is one reason why I backed Aliko Dangote even before I became President. God bless the soul of Muhammadu Buhari. We discussed how we can support the private sector to go into the refinery business,” he added.
On his part, NGX Group CEO Temi Popoola told the President that the total value of listed equities had increased from nearly N30 trillion when the administration assumed office in 2023 to about N160 trillion, with projections to reach N230 trillion before the end of the year.
“The picture today is that when you took office in 2023, the total value of stocks listed in Nigeria was just shy of N30 trillion. Today, Mr President, that figure is N160 trillion. By the end of this year, with the listings we are seeing in our market, we expect that figure to rise to N230 trillion,” Popoola said.
He added that the Nigerian All-Share Index had risen from 52,000 points to 244,000 points, while the reforms had created an estimated 500,000 to 900,000 new millionaires, attributing the market’s performance to the administration’s reforms and expressing confidence that Nigeria could attain a $1 trillion economy before 2030.
