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Oil Prices Soar on Positive US Demand Outlook, Possible Rate Cuts

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Crude Oil Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices soared on Thursday after data showed a stabilizing job market in the United States, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin to cut interest rates soon.

During the session, Brent crude futures went up by 52 cents or 0.6 per cent to $83.27 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 60 cents or 0.8 per cent to $79.23 per barrel.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to an underlying strength in the job market of the world’s largest oil producer and consumer.

If interest rates start dropping, it would stimulate the economy and boost oil demand.

This comes after the US inflation data for April fed market expectations for a September cut in interest rates, which could ease Dollar strength and make greenback-denominated oil more affordable for holders of other currencies.

US consumer prices increased less than expected in April as it rose 0.3 per cen last month after advancing 0.4 per cent in March and February.

In the Middle East, Israel’s tanks pushed into the heart of Jabalia in northern Gaza on Thursday while, in the south, its forces pounded Rafah without advancing, according to reports.

Ceasefire talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt are at a stalemate, with Hamas demanding an end to attacks and Israel refusing until the group is annihilated.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth by 140,000 barrels per day, widening the gap with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in terms of expectations for this year’s global demand outlook.

The agency said the lower 2024 forecast was linked to poor industrial activity and lower consumption, particularly in Europe, where a declining share of diesel cars was already undercutting consumption.

In its monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC stuck by its expectation that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024. The 1.15 million barrels per day difference is about 1 per cent of world demand.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories last week fell 2.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said midweek compared with a modest draw of 1.4 million barrels for the previous week and an unexpected decline of 3.1 million barrels for the week to May 10, as estimated by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies , OPEC+ is likely to hold its June 1 oil policy meeting online, rather than in its headquarters in Vienna as currently scheduled.

Commodity analysts have pointed out that OPEC+ has room to increase output by over 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter without upsetting global oil balances, meaning global markets can comfortably absorb the UAE’s production increase of 200,000 barrels per day.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Zichis Gains 39.62% in One Week, Now Sells N21.78 Per Share

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Zichis Agro-Allied Industries

By Dipo Olowookere

Zichis Agro-Allied Industries Plc continued its upward movement on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week, emerging as the best-performing stock after chalking up 39.62 per cent to trade at N21.78 per share.

The company’s stock has shown no signs of slowing down despite a downward price adjustment it suffered a week ago after an investigation into its price movement.

Zichis joined the local bourse in January 2026 at a unit price of N1.81, but within a month, its share price rose to N17.36 per unit, indicating an 859.12 per cent surge.

After a look into its rise in value, its price was trimmed to N8.58 per unit after the NGX Regulation lifted a suspension on trading on its shares on March 23, 2026.

Last week, which had four trading sessions, Zichis led the price gainers’ chart of 52 equities versus 46 equities of the previous week. Fifty-three shares depreciated versus 53 shares of the preceding week, and 41 stocks closed flat versus 47 stocks recorded a week earlier.

Trailing Zichis on the gainers’ table was The Initiates, which appreciated by 33.04 per cent to N30.60, UAC Nigeria expanded by 27.82 per cent to N181.50, BUA Cement solidified by 24.78 per cent to N408.00, and CAP grew by 22.53 per cent to M145.20.

On the flip side, UBA slumped by 22.27 per cent to N42.75, Royal Exchange shrank by 20.00 per cent to N1.36, Trans-Nationwide Express depleted by 18.99 per cent to N6.40, Deap Capital went down by 14.49 per cent to N4.19, and First Holdco slipped by 13.80 per cent to N64.65.

In the week, the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation soared by 7.33 per cent each to 242,277.81 points and N155.994 trillion, respectively.

Also, all other indices finished higher except CG, banking, insurance, AFR Bank Value, MERI Value and sovereign bond indices, which lost 0.80 per cent, 5.52 per cent, 1.13 per cent, 5.80 per cent, 3.31 per cent and 0.26 per cent, respectively

Business Post reports that a total of 4.842 billion shares worth N287.756 billion exchanged hands in 332,453 deals last week compared with the 3.805 billion shares valued at N213.955 billion traded in 297,202 deals a week earlier.

The financial services industry led the activity chart with 3.755 billion units worth N124.398 billion in 146,938 deals, contributing 77.56 per cent and 43.23 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The consumer goods sector transacted 177.009 million units worth N30.853 billion in 36,609 deals, and the third place was the services industry with a turnover of 176.809 million units worth N4.387 billion in 15,310 deals.

Access Holdings, UBA, and Wema Bank led the activity chart with 2.026 billion equities worth N60.036 billion in 39,925 deals, contributing 41.85 per cent and 20.86 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.

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Economy

OPEC+ Agrees Modest Output Hike for June as Hormuz Closure Limits Impact

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OPEC output cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to another modest oil output hike for June, which will remain largely on paper as long as the war in Iran continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Seven OPEC+ countries will raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June, the third consecutive ​monthly increase, OPEC+ said in a statement after an online meeting on Sunday.

The increase is the same as that agreed ​for May, minus the share of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which exited the alliance on May 1 to focus on its energy future.

The seven members who met on Sunday were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. With the UAE leaving, OPEC+ includes 21 members, including Iran and Russia. However, in recent years, only the seven nations plus the UAE have been involved in monthly production decisions.

The ⁠move is designed to show the group is ready to raise supplies once the war stops.

The Iran war, which began on February 28, and the resulting closure of the ​Hormuz Strait have throttled exports from ​OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, ⁠Iraq and Kuwait, as well as from the UAE. Before the conflict, these producers were the only countries in the group able to raise production.

Top OPEC+ producer Saudi Arabia’s quota will rise ​to 10.291 million barrels per day in June under the agreement, far above actual production. The kingdom reported actual production of 7.76 million barrels per day to ‌OPEC in ⁠March.

Market analysts noted that even when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ​reopens, it will take several weeks or months for flows to normalise.

In the meantime, the supply disruption has propelled oil prices to a four-year high above $125 per barrel.

Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members ⁠averaged 35.06 ​million barrels per day in March, down 7.70 million barrels per day from February, OPEC said in ​a report last month, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia making the biggest cuts due to constrained exports.

The seven OPEC+ members will meet again on June 7.

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Economy

Brent, WTI Ease on Iran Proposal Despite Ongoing Supply Disruptions

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Brent crude futures

By Adedapo Adesanya

The prices of the two major crude oil grades moderated on Friday amid news of an Iranian proposal on negotiations with the United States. However, prices remained on track for weekly gains, with Iran still blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy blocking exports of Iranian crude.

Brent crude settled at $108.17 per barrel after losing $2.23 or 2.02 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $101.94 a barrel after giving up $3.13 or 2.98 per cent. Both benchmarks gained 2.9 per cent over the week.

It was reported on Friday that Iran sent its latest proposal for negotiations with the US to Pakistani mediators on Thursday, a ⁠move that could improve prospects for breaking an impasse in efforts to end the Iran war.

Oil ​prices have been on the rise since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of ​February, resulting in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of shipments of about a fifth of ‌the world’s ⁠oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

Although a ceasefire has been in place since April 8, the oil market appeared to ​be accepting the uneasy truce in ⁠the conflict since Iran had already said and signalled that it won’t open the chokepoint to free traffic and won’t return to negotiations unless the American blockade is lifted.

There are fears of an escalation amid reports that US President Donald Trump would be briefed on further military options to force Iran’s hand to sign a deal, which could involve a ground operation.

Prices could spike to $140 per barrel, according to the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mr Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, saying the US Administration is getting “junk advice” from people like [Treasury Secretary] Bessent, “who also push the blockade theory and cranked oil up to $120+. Next stop:140.”

The United Arab Emirates’ departure from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this week may still mean that ​the market’s most striking feature in the next few years is not too little supply, but too much. It left the cartel to boost production (target ~5 million barrels per day by 2027) and gain full control over its oil strategy and global partnerships.

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