Economy
Fall in US Inventories, Possible OPEC+ Supply Delay Buoy Oil Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Wednesday after data showed crude and gasoline (petrol) inventories fell unexpectedly last week and reports that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ may delay a planned oil output increase.
Yesterday, Brent crude futures grew by $1.43 or 2.01 per cent to sell at $72.55 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.4 or 2.08 per cent to $68.61 per barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory draw of a modest half a million barrels for the week to October 25 versus a build of 5.5 million barrels for the previous week, pressured oil prices additionally at the time.
The American Petroleum Institute (API), meanwhile, on Tuesday reported estimated inventory draws across crude and fuels, helping prices move higher for a time. However, they remained subdued due to expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
The country’s petrol stocks shed 2.7 million barrels in the week to October 25, with production at an average of 9.7 million barrels daily. These figures compared with an inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the previous week, when production stood at an average of 10 million barrels daily.
Pressure also came as the market learned that OPEC+ could delay a planned oil production increase in December by a month or more because of concern over soft oil demand and rising supply.
Traders are betting that OPEC+ will hold off on the planned increase, deferring to Saudi Arabia’s top-down approach since the country acts as the de facto leader of the group and has always stepped in to help the alliance when it is underperforming.
The group is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December. OPEC+ has cut output by 5.86 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 5.7 per cent of global oil demand.
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report downgraded demand growth for 2024 to 1.9 million barrels per day while demand forecasts for 2025 slipped another 102,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day.
China, meanwhile, ramped up imports by 16 per cent month over month in August, but the rise still falls short of August 2023 levels, keeping a lid on demand and by extension, the market.
OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1 to decide its next policy steps.
Economy
Brent Climbs to $112 as Ceasefire Doubts Persist
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of Brent crude went up by $4.56 or 4.2 per cent to $112.57 per barrel on Friday, as traders remained sceptical about prospects for a ceasefire in the month-old Iran war.
Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose $5.16 or 5.5 per cent to settle at $99.64 per barrel, gaining over 1 per cent on a week-on-week basis, and surged 45 per cent since February 27, the day before the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran.
On its part, Brent chalked up 0.3 per cent in the week and gained 53 per cent since February 27.
Traders are cautious about President Donald Trump’s statements about the Iran talks, as the Iranian government claimed that the proposal by the US conveyed to Iran by Pakistan was one-sided.
The American President extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure.
Also, the US has sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, with President Trump weighing whether to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the Iran war has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply, describing the crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined.
Market analysts noted that every day flows through the Strait remain restricted, more than 10 million barrels of oil are missing, adding that prices will fall quickly if the war begins to wind down soon, but still remain above pre-conflict levels. However, prices could rise to $200 if the war drags on until the end of June.
Meanwhile, two container vessels owned by China Ocean Shipping Company tried to pass through the Strait but were turned back, according to the ship tracking firm MarineTraffic. China is an ally of Iran and the Islamic Republic has previously said friendly ships can pass through the Strait.
This was the first attempt by a major container carrier to cross the sea route since the war started, the firm said. COSCO is the world’s fourth-largest shipping line by capacity.
Russian oil producers have warned buyers that they could declare force majeure on supplies from major Baltic Sea ports after Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Economy
CBN Grants IOCs 100% Access to Export Proceeds, Ends Cash Pooling
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has removed the cash pooling requirement for International Oil Companies (IOCs), allowing them to fully repatriate their export proceeds through Authorised Dealer Banks (ADBs).
Previously in 2024, the apex bank required IOCs to repatriate export earnings into Nigeria, but only 50 per cent could be accessed immediately (via banks) while the other 50 per cent had to stay in Nigeria for 90 days before they could move it.
This was called a cash pooling requirement, designed to keep more foreign currency (like Dollars) inside Nigeria temporarily to support FX liquidity.
However, the apex bank, in a circular signed by the Director, Trade and Exchange Department, Mr Musa Nakorji, disclosed that, to further liberalise and deepen the market in line with current realities, IOCs are now granted unfettered access to their repatriated export proceeds.
“Accordingly, IOCs may repatriate 100 per cent of their export proceeds through ADBs, which are required to ensure proper documentation and submit monthly reports to the Director, Trade and Exchange Department.
“This provision supersedes all previous circulars issued by the Bank on cash pooling.
“All Authorised Dealer Banks are advised to note and comply accordingly, as this directive takes immediate effect.”
The development means more flexibility for foreign oil companies as they can now move their money freely and meet international obligations faster, while it reduces exposure to FX risks in Nigeria. This makes Nigeria more attractive to foreign investors, especially in the oil and gas sector, at a time when the global oil market is facing turbulence from the Middle East war triggered by the US and Israel against Iran.
This indicates that the apex bank is making do of its promise to shift towards a more market-driven FX system, where there are fewer controls and less forced retention of foreign currency. This could help boost investor confidence since they will have more control over their money flows.
However, this comes with potential risks as the country could see less short-term Dollar supply staying in the country and may invite pressure on the Naira if outflows exceed inflows.
Economy
Private Debt Booms in Africa’s Startup Ecosystem in 2025—Report
By Adedapo Adesanya
Debt has emerged as a fast-growing asset class for the startup funding landscape in Africa, according to a new report by the African Private Capital Association (AVCA).
The 2025 Private Capital Activity in Africa report showed that Africa emerged as the only global region to record growth in private capital deal volume in 2025, underscoring the continent’s resilience amid a challenging global investment climate.
For startups, raising funds signals validation of their business model, market potential, and growth trajectory, while also providing the financial runway needed to scale operations, invest in innovation, and compete effectively. This can be done via a number of means, including bootstrapping, venture capital, private equity, debt financing, crowdfunding, accelerators, grants, corporate investments, initial public offerings (IPOs), and revenue-based financing, among others.
The data showed that private debt emerged as a fast-growing asset class, with deal volumes surging by 57 per cent year-on-year.
The growth was driven largely by the rising use of venture debt, positioning private debt alongside private equity and venture capital as a key financing channel in Africa.
The report put total investment at $5.1 billion, reflecting a slight dip in value but sustained investor appetite across the continent. The data showed that deal activity rose by 8 per cent year-on-year to 530 transactions, even as global deal volumes declined by 7 per cent.
IPOs also saw modest growth, with four listings completed during the year.
Domestic investors played a critical role in driving liquidity, accounting for 68 per cent of private capital acquisitions.
International investors made up the remaining 32 per cent, led by Asian strategic buyers seeking to expand their footprint in African markets.
The report highlighted a shift in strategy among fund managers, who increasingly focused on smaller mid-market deals as global financial conditions tightened.
Transactions valued between $50 million and $99 million doubled during the year, signalling a move away from larger, capital-intensive investments.
Sectoral activity remained dominated by financial services, particularly fintech, which accounted for 82 per cent of transactions within the sector.
The information sector ranked as the second most active, supporting investments across finance, healthcare, retail and logistics.
Regionally, Southern Africa maintained its position as the most active investment hub, while East and North Africa recorded strong performances, buoyed by growth in energy and information technology investments.
Africa’s exit market also showed significant improvement, with 81 exits recorded in 2025, representing a 27 per cent increase from the previous year and the second-highest level on record.
This contrasted sharply with a 15 per cent decline in global exit activity over the same period.
Trade buyers remained the dominant exit route, accounting for 38 per cent of transactions, while sponsor-to-sponsor deals reached a record 26 per cent, reflecting increased depth in the secondary market.
Despite the strong deal and exit performance, fundraising declined by 34 per cent year-on-year to $2.7 billion, mirroring global liquidity pressures.
Development finance institutions remained central to the ecosystem, contributing 64 per cent of total commitments.
However, domestic capital continued to deepen, with African institutional investors accounting for 21 per cent of commitments.
Sovereign wealth funds and pension funds led this trend, reflecting a growing shift towards locally sourced capital.
Commenting on the findings, AVCA chief executive, Mrs Abi Mustapha-Maduakor, said the data reflects a continent increasingly decoupling from global investment headwinds.
“This year’s report tells a clear story: Africa is decoupling from the global slowdown. Stronger exit performance, deeper participation from domestic institutional capital, and sustained commitments from development finance institutions all point to a maturing ecosystem,” she said.
She added that the momentum is expected to build further as investors increase exposure to sectors driving Africa’s next phase of economic transformation.
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