Economy
Oil Rises as Positive US Fuel Stocks Data Outweigh Supply, Demand Concerns
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices closed slightly higher on Thursday over draw in US fuel stocks outweighed oversupply concerns and demand worries stemming from a stronger Dollar.
The price of Brent crude futures grew by 28 cents or 0.4 per cent to $72.56 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 27 cents or 0.4 per cent to $68.70 a barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory build of 2.1 million barrels for the week to November 8. In fuels, however, inventories fell.
US gasoline (petrol) stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, indicating a good demand level.
The crude oil inventory change compared with a build of the same size for the previous week, which pressured oil prices at the time.
A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute (API) had reported an unexpected but modest draw in crude oil inventories, at 777,000 barrels, for the week to November 8. The API also estimated a draw in gasoline inventories and a build in middle distillates.
The market remains pressured by the weight of lower demand expectations coupled with ample supply indications.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reviewed their demand outlook and signalled that they expect a well-supplied market this year and next.
The IEA forecasts global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, as rising production from the US and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand.
The Paris-based agency raised its 2024 demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 920,000 barrels per day and left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little changed at 990,000 barrels per day.
OPEC, meanwhile, revised down its oil demand forecast for this year, to 1.82 million barrels daily from 1.93 million barrels daily in the previous edition of the Monthly Oil Market Report. Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.0 million barrels per day. in 2024, bolstered by strong transportation fuel demand and ongoing healthy economic growth.
Pressure remains from the US Dollar, which makes Dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.
The Dollar surged to a one-year high and headed for a fifth-straight daily gain fuelled by higher yields and President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory in the US.
Economy
Naira Loses Against Dollar Official, Black Markets
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira opened the new trading week on a negative note on Monday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) and the black market.
At the parallel market, the Nigerian currency weakened against the US Dollar by N5 to sell for N1,380/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,375/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it shed N1 to trade at N1,373/$1 versus N1,372/$1.
At the official market, it lost 63 Kobo or 0.05 per cent against the Dollar during the session to close at N1,362.84/$1, in contrast to last Friday’s value of N1,362.21/$1.
However, the Nigerian Naira gained N2.30 against the Pound Sterling at the spot market yesterday, quoting at N1,821.29/£1 compared with the previous rate of N1,823.59/£1, and improved against the Euro by 23 Kobo to settle at N1,574.35/€1 versus N1,574.58/€1.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that interbank forex turnover increased to $92.248 million across 90 deals, from $73.565 million last Friday.
On the policy front, participants believed that the application of the fourth edition of the Foreign Exchange Manual of the central bank, which introduces updated guidelines for foreign exchange transactions and tightening compliance requirements for authorised dealers and market participants, will enhance market flexibility and ease previous restrictions.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market snapped from recent declines, jolted by Strategy’s purchase of 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC. The company raised $181 million through common stock sales, using the proceeds to fund the bitcoin purchase and increase its cash reserves to $1 billion, pushing the price of the coin higher by 3.2 per cent to $63,731.69.
Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 8.4 per cent to $0.1738, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 5.2 per cent to $1,711.54, Solana (SOL) expanded by 5.1 per cent to $67.82, and Ripple (XRP) improved by 4.9 per cent to $1.18.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 4.3 per cent to $0.0873, Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 2.7 per cent to $609.50, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.7 per cent to $0.3274, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $0.9997 and $0.9998, respectively.
Economy
Economist Tasks FG to Explore Alternative Funding Sources
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The federal government has been advised to consider exploring other funding sources to finance its budget deficits.
Speaking with Punch recently, the chief executive of CSA Advisory, Mr Aliyu Ilias, said the current appetite for borrowing by the government cannot be sustained because it elevates debt-servicing costs.
The economist suggested the sale of some public assets and the involvement of the private sector in infrastructure financing for economic growth.
According to him, running to the debt markets to raise funds for the government is not the best route to take, as the reliance on borrowing always leads to higher debt-servicing obligations.
“The more you borrow, the more you are also incurring more debt services,” he said, tasking the government to also capitalise on increased oil revenues stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“The government can actually sell off some of their assets to raise more money. The government can also, if you look at the revenue we are getting from oil, it’s getting more, especially with this war. It’s another opportunity for us to actually not borrow again,” Mr Ilias submitted.
He also pointed to ongoing tax reforms as another avenue to improve government finances and narrow the fiscal gap.
“The government can also look at tax reform. The fact is that the government does not have money. The only chance for getting more money is to address the financial deficit,” he added.
Economy
Crude Oil Gains Over $1 Despite Easing Iran-Israel Tensions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil was up by $1 on Monday as Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an appeal from US President Donald Trump.
Brent crude futures gained $1.16 or 1.3 per cent to trade at $94.25 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 76 cents or 0.8 per cent to $91.30 per barrel.
Iran’s military said Monday it halted attacks on Israel after the two countries exchanged their most intense strikes in months, further straining an already shaky ceasefire as well as the US-Israeli relationship. Iran, however, said it would resume strikes if Israel continued to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel also halted attacks on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, stopping short of acknowledging a ceasefire that US President Donald Trump said the countries were aiming for.
President Trump said earlier that the US blockade, which was introduced in April, would remain in place “in full force” until a final peace agreement between the two warring nations is reached.
Prices gained more than 5 per cent earlier on Monday after renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and attacks on Lebanon had reduced hopes of an imminent end to the wider war.
Market analysts noted that because of the strikes, investors were concerned that flows through the Strait of Hormuz might remain restricted for longer. Roughly a fifth of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway before US-Israeli airstrikes at the end of February unleashed the latest escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed its military attacks on Iran, adding to concerns about global shipping and energy flows.
In the face of the supply crisis, a sub-group under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday agreed on its fourth oil output target increase in four months. The seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July, the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 barrels per day in May and April to take into account the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
On paper, the sub-group has increased its output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day, but in reality, the group’s production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million barrels per day in April compared with 42.77 million barrels per day in February.
Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in July for a second month.
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