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KGI: 2025 Mid-Year Market Outlook
Navigating the New Normal
HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 24 June 2025 – Today, KGI has released its 2025 Mid-Year Market Outlook.
Looking back over the first half of the year, Trump officially took office as President of the United States and started a trade war. At one point, he even threatened to levy tariffs on China of more than 100%, triggering massive market fluctuations. Since then, many countries have entered negotiations with the U.S., and positive signals have emerged. How will the ongoing tariff war affect global economic development? How will the economic uncertainty created by Trump’s policies influence interest rate trends? How will China respond to the increasingly tense trade relationship? And how will China achieve economic growth targets amid external economic instability?
Under this backdrop, for the second half of the year, we maintain the “ACE” strategy:
- Alternatives: Gold and other alternative assets are expected to be inflation-resistant and have lower correlation with traditional stocks and bonds.
- Credit Selection: Maintain a preference for high-grade bonds, as the market still presents opportunities to lock in yields.
- Elite Stocks: Diversify investment in quality stocks, balancing the allocation between cyclical and defensive stocks.
Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: “In terms of asset allocation, considering the economic and political developments in the second half of the year, investors can continue to follow the ACE strategy: A is Alternatives. The fiscal conditions of multiple governments have sparked controversy, coupled with central banks diversifying asset allocations and geopolitical instability, which will be favorable to gold prices. C is Credit Selection. We expect downside risks to the economy, thus maintaining a preference for quality bonds. Corporate bonds will provide opportunities to lock in yields. E is Elite Stock. Tariff expectations are anticipated to impact corporate earnings; cyclical stocks and defensive stocks can be balanced in the allocation. Outside the United States, focus on countries with minimal tariff impact or those that have already reached agreements.”
Macro & U.S. Markets
In 2H2025, the global economy will enter a slowdown mode, particularly in emerging markets, with the slowdown being most pronounced in the United States among mature markets. In the first half of the year, U.S. companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of tariff wars, resulting in decent economic performance. However, this situation will not continue into the second half, with GDP growth rates potentially falling below 1%, averaging around 1.35% for the year. The slowdown in the Eurozone and the UK will be less pronounced than in the U.S., but the negative impacts of the trade war cannot be underestimated. The economic outlook for Japan and China is also bleak.
In the first half of the year, the U.S. economy shone due to strong demand, but this demand is expected to wane in the second half, leading to weaker economic data. The uncertainty of Trump’s policies affects consumer confidence and corporate orders, with labor market data showing a downward trend, further impacting wages and consumption.
The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2025 and continue to lower rates by 50 to 75 basis points in 2026. As for U.S. stocks, the likelihood of entering a bear market this year is low, but a decline is possible in the third quarter, with annual profit estimates dropping from 14.1% to below 9%. Investors are advised to focus on defensive and high-quality stocks to weather the economic downturn.
In terms of bond investments, the weakening U.S. economy is expected to drive bond yields lower, with Treasury yields projected to fall to 4.0%-4.3% from the latter half of the third quarter to the fourth quarter. It is recommended to invest in higher-quality investment-grade corporate bonds and consider transitioning to non-investment-grade corporate bonds when the economy hits bottom.
James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says: “The easing of the trade war has reduced the risk of a U.S. economic recession, but its uncertainty has already affected economic confidence and will put pressure on hard data in the future. The recent rise in the stock market has brought valuations back to high levels. Investors need to be aware of the expiration of the tariff suspension and the subsequent economic and corporate earnings revisions that could bring volatility.”
Mainland China and Hong Kong Markets
Since early 2025, China’s economy has shown marginal improvement amid multiple internal and external factors. In the trade sector, after reaching a 90-day short-term tariff exemption agreement with the United States, market expectations for the full-year GDP growth rate have risen from the initially announced “Liberation Day” figure of 4.2% to 4.5% following the preliminary agreement; on the other hand, although exports to the U.S. continue to shrink, exports to ASEAN and India have increased significantly, with exporters actively expanding multilateral markets to mitigate external shocks, and the proportion of China’s exports to the U.S. continues to decline. Against this backdrop of external challenges, the Chinese government’s four economic priorities include: (1) maintaining liquidity in the banking system, (2) boosting consumer confidence, (3) supporting innovation and technology to drive high value-added production strategies, and (4) expanding trade alliances beyond the U.S.
China-U.S. relations will continue to play out in a “periodic tension and relaxation” new normal. Facing U.S. escalating high-tech export controls, China is accelerating the strengthening of domestic supply chains, diversified trade strategies, and independent R&D to promote core technology autonomy and control. The continued growth of gold reserves highlights the value of this safe-haven asset in uncertain environments. Regarding the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index has performed strongly since the beginning of the year, reflecting sustained overseas capital allocation to Chinese assets and rising risk appetite. Overall, in the second half of 2025, China’s economy will continue to recover driven by policy support, domestic demand rebound, and manufacturing transformation and upgrading. However, attention should remain on uncertainties such as China-U.S. friction, geopolitical issues, and international demand fluctuations.
Hang Seng Index target price in the second half of 2025 is 25,500 points
We previously set a target of 23,200 points for the first half of 2025, when the biggest downside risk was Trump’s tariff policies. Considering the above factors, we believe the Hong Kong stock market will reflect more positive factors in the second half, which is also reflected in the market’s upward revision of earnings per share estimates for the Hang Seng Index. We raise this year’s Hang Seng Index target price to 25,500 points, corresponding to an estimated price-earnings ratio of about 11 times, with potential growth of 6.3% in the second half (as of June 17, 2025), and a total annual increase of 27.5%. In terms of sectors, we are optimistic on industry, Internet, raw materials, telecommunications, healthcare and utilities, including 13 selected stocks.
Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: “Overall, in the second half of 2025, China’s economy will continue to recover driven by policy support, domestic demand rebound, and manufacturing transformation and upgrading. However, attention should remain on uncertainties such as China-U.S. friction, geopolitical issues, and international demand fluctuations. The Hang Seng Index year end target is at 25,500 points, with a positive outlook on 6 sectors and 13 stock picks.”
Taiwan Market
Trump’s erratic tariff policies have caused significant volatility in the Taiwan stock market during the first half of the year. However, with the recent easing of the trade war and stable short-term AI demand, the Taiwan stock market has seen some recovery. Looking ahead, we believe the negative impact of the trade war will gradually become evident, potentially leading to downward adjustments in the Taiwan stock market before the third quarter. Nonetheless, a moderate correction could help stabilize the market in the fourth quarter. Despite the temporary agreement between the U.S. and China, high tariffs continue to affect economic growth and inflation pressures. Given the close economic ties between Taiwan and the U.S., tariff impacts could lower Taiwan stock market profits. If adverse factors can be absorbed in the third quarter, the market is likely to stabilize in the fourth quarter, with AI demand remaining a crucial support for the Taiwan stock market.
James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says: “The demand for AI in the short term remains stable, supporting a continued rebound in the stock market. However, the trade war and exchange rate impacts have increased the uncertainty of corporate earnings. Early stockpiling has made the normally slow season in the first half of the year less sluggish for the Taiwanese stock market, but it may lead to a less prosperous peak season in the second half of the year.”
Singapore Market
In 2H25, Singapore’s economy is expected to experience cautious growth due to global trade uncertainties and a challenging external environment. While sectors like wholesale trade, manufacturing, finance, and insurance provide some support, geopolitical tensions and protectionism weigh on sentiment. Inflation remains manageable, but the labor market shows signs of strain. Trade activity, boosted recently by tariff suspensions, is expected to moderate.
Looking ahead, growth is influenced by external factors such as U.S. trade policies and China’s recovery. The government has revised growth expectations downward, but strengths in electronics and financial services persist. Strategic investments in AI, digitalization, and green technologies aim to future-proof the economy. Risks remain from potential trade conflicts and weakening global demand. Domestic measures to boost innovation and stabilize the property market are anticipated to support growth, though challenges for businesses and households may arise. Overall, Singapore’s economy is positioned to remain steady with limited near-term upside.
Chen Guangzhi, Head of Research at KGI Singapore, says: “Amid increasing global macroeconomic uncertainties, Singapore will further underscore its strengths in political and economic stability. Therefore, we remain cautiously upbeat about the outlook in 2H25.”
Hashtag: #KGI #MarketOutlook
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
About KGI
KGI*has been a leading financial institution in Asia since 1997. Our scope of business encompasses wealth management, brokerage, fixed income, and asset management. We are committed to offering a comprehensive range of financial products and services to corporate, institutional, and individual clients throughout Asia. Backed by KGI Financial Group, we have a robust footprint in Asia, covering Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand^.
*KGI refers to KGI Asia Limited and its affiliates.
^an investee enterprise of KGI Securities, not a subsidiary.
Media OutReach
Blackwall Enters Vietnam: European Web Traffic Security Firm Launches Southeast Asia Expansion with 19-Year Hosting Partner HostVN
Estonian web traffic security company Blackwall announces its first publicly disclosed Southeast Asia partnership, bringing integrated traffic security to Vietnam’s digital infrastructure market through HostVN
HANOI, VIETNAM – Media OutReach Newswire – 23 June 2026 – Blackwall, a European web traffic security company, today announced a partnership with HOSTVN TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS JOINT STOCK COMPANY (HostVN), Vietnam’s established digital infrastructure provider, to launch HOSTVN Website Protection – powered by Blackwall. The partnership marks Blackwall’s first publicly announced entry into Southeast Asia.
Under the agreement, HostVN integrates Blackwall’s all-in-one traffic security platform into its hosting infrastructure, offering Vietnamese businesses integrated website protection covering L7 DDoS defence, advanced bot mitigation, web application firewall (WAF), SSL management, and content caching, delivered seamlessly by HostVN, requiring no in-house security expertise from the customer.
A New Category: Traffic Quality as a Business Problem
The partnership addresses a challenge that most Vietnamese businesses have not yet named: according to Statista Research, more than half of all web traffic today is generated by automated bots and not human visitors. The consequences extend beyond traditional security risks into hidden operational costs, skewed business intelligence, and revenue leakage.
“Vietnam is ready, and Blackwall is committing to it,” said Madan Rai, VP Sales Asia at Blackwall. “More than half the traffic hitting a website today is not a real customer. Bots and automated requests consume bandwidth, distort analytics, and drain advertising spend — silently, every day. Through HostVN, we are placing enterprise-grade traffic security directly into the infrastructure that Vietnamese businesses already rely on. This partnership anchors Blackwall’s broader expansion across Southeast Asia. We chose Vietnam as our launchpad because its digital economy is scaling rapidly, and it requires infrastructure that matches that ambition.”
HostVN: 19 Years, Six Reinventions
Founded in 2007, HostVN has served Vietnamese businesses across five successive phases of the digital economy: from web hosting to cloud infrastructure, content delivery, digital transformation services, and AI-related offerings. The Blackwall partnership represents the company’s sixth strategic evolution, adding intelligent traffic security to its infrastructure stack.
“Nineteen years ago, we started HostVN with one purpose: to give Vietnamese businesses a strong foundation on the internet,” said Duong Thanh Binh, Chairman of HostVN. “Vietnam has not stood still, and neither have we. Every phase of our growth has been driven by the same commitment – to give the businesses that trust us the infrastructure they need to thrive. Today, the threat is not just downtime. It is invisible traffic that costs money, corrupts data, and goes undetected. HOSTVN Website Protection, powered by Blackwall, is our answer and our commitment to Vietnam’s digital future.”
Technology Built for Service Providers Partners
Blackwall operates on a channel-first model. Its traffic security platform is designed to be delivered exclusively through hosting and cloud infrastructure providers. This model gives partners full control over pricing and packaging, while allowing them to retain the direct customer relationship.
The Blackwall platform operates as a reverse proxy positioned in front of customer websites. Traffic is inspected across multiple detection layers, including Layer 4 and Layer 7 signature analysis, comprehensive device fingerprinting, IP reputation scoring, and proprietary behavioural algorithms. Clean traffic is then forwarded to the origin server and malicious requests are blocked or presented controlled responses. The process is transparent to legitimate users, with no added latency.
HOSTVN Website Protection delivers this capability across four integrated components:
- L7 DDoS Protection: application-layer attack mitigation running on HostVN’s Clean Traffic infrastructure
- Advanced Bot Mitigation: Real-time detection and classification of humans, trusted bots, and automated traffic, including AI agents, to identify benign and malicious activity. Web Application Firewall (WAF): OWASP Top 10 aligned protection against injection attacks, cross-site scripting, and common web exploits
- SSL Management and Content Caching: automated SSL certificate handling, encrypted delivery, and performance optimisation that reduces server load and improves page speed
Vietnam as Blackwall’s First Southeast Asia Launch Market
Vietnam’s digital economy has grown substantially over the past decade, with business online presence now standard across sectors. Alongside that growth, the volume of automated and malicious web traffic targeting Vietnamese sites has increased in proportion. HostVN, with more than 50,000 customers and established Clean Traffic infrastructure connected to major domestic carriers, offers Blackwall the operational scale and market knowledge required for an effective regional entry.
Blackwall has indicated that Vietnam is the first in a planned series of Southeast Asia partnerships, with Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand identified as subsequent target markets. The company has also announced a major Series B funding round to support its international expansion.
Availability
HOSTVN Website Protection — powered by Blackwall is available to HostVN customers effective 20 May 2026. Pricing is available through HostVN directly. Further information is available at hostvn.net and blackwall.com.
Hashtag: #Blackwall
https://blackwall.com
https://www.linkedin.com/company/blackwall-solutions/
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
About Blackwall
Blackwall is a web traffic security company headquartered in Tallinn, Estonia, specialising in web traffic management security for hosting providers, managed service providers and cloud infrastructure platforms. Blackwall’s all-in-one platform — combining load balancing, advanced bot mitigation, L7 DDoS protection, web application firewall (WAF), content caching, and SSL management — is delivered through a global network of hosting and infrastructure partners and protects more than 2.3 million websites worldwide. Blackwall.com
ABOUT HOSTVN (HOSTVN Technology Solutions Joint Stock Company)
HostVN has provided digital infrastructure services to Vietnamese businesses since 2007. The company operates shared hosting, VPS, dedicated servers, cloud infrastructure, and content delivery services, serving more than 50,000 customers. HostVN’s Clean Traffic infrastructure supports high-volume traffic management across major domestic carrier interconnects. Hostvn.net
Media OutReach
AS Watson Launches brand lab to Turn Retail Scale into a Data-driven Brand Growth Engine
The initiative formalises capabilities the Group has been building internally, combining data-led demand identification, integrated distribution, and execution across more than 17,000 O+O stores in Asia and Europe.
Over the past two years, AS Watson has introduced more than 4,800 new brands and brand extensions across its network, underscoring the scale of its brand development activity.
From Incubation to Execution
AS Watson brand lab departs from traditional incubator models by embedding brand development directly within AS Watson’s retail ecosystem.
Rather than incubating brands ahead of their market entry, the platform operates inside the market, using real-time customer data, shopping behaviour and category dynamics to inform development decisions.
Dr Malina Ngai, Group CEO of AS Watson, said the model reflects the company’s structural advantage. “We don’t wait for brands to find the market – we build them where demand already exists, and scale them through our ecosystem.”
A Systemised Growth Model
At the core of AS Watson brand lab is an integrated operating model linking insight, creation, distribution, demand activation and scaling.
The platform leverages AS Watson’s over 180 million loyalty members and O+O capabilities to accelerate brand selection and commercial execution.
A Structured Pathway to Scale
Brands within AS Watson brand lab are supported through a structured growth pathway, progressing from early-stage validation to regional scaling and category leadership.
At each stage, brands receive differentiated support across insight, distribution, marketing activation and investment, ensuring resources are focused where the greatest growth potential exists.
This staged approach enables AS Watson to systematically build, scale and prioritise brands, improving success rates while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.
Focus on High-Growth Segments
AS Watson brand lab will prioritise product segments including Asian beauty trends (K-beauty, J-beauty, C-beauty), ingredient-led skincare, health and wellness products and elevated personal care – areas where consumer demand continues to evolve rapidly.
The Group expects the platform to strengthen its ability to build proprietary and exclusive brands while improving speed-to-market and capital efficiency.
Proven Brand Scaling in Action
Early outcomes demonstrate how AS Watson brand lab translates insight into accelerated growth – not only by shaping brand development, but by scaling brands rapidly across markets through its integrated O+O ecosystem.
Across multiple categories and geographies, the platform has enabled brands to move from targeted market entry to multi-market expansion with speed and discipline:
COSRX (K-Beauty)– By combining COSRX’s innovation-led skincare expertise with
AS Watson’s extensive retail footprint and deep consumer insights, the partnership has accelerated international expansion and broadened consumer reach. This illustrates how the platform converts strong brand propositions into sustained category growth across markets.
&honey (J-Beauty) – Leveraging its distinctive product positioning alongside
AS Watson’s regional scale, &honey rapidly expanded beyond its home market, rolling out across multiple Asian markets within a short timeframe. This demonstrates the platform’s ability to systematically scale proven domestic leaders into regional brands.
e.l.f. Cosmetics (US) – Through partnership with AS Watson, e.l.f. has extended its community-led, value-driven model across Europe, translating strong brand engagement into measurable market penetration. The example highlights how consumer-centric brands can be amplified through local market execution at scale.
essence (Germany) – The expansion of essence across multiple markets, including exclusive partnerships, reflects how purpose-driven brands can achieve consistency and reach when supported by integrated distribution and retail insight. This underscores the platform’s ability to build sustained brand relevance and loyalty across diverse markets.
Across these examples, brands have scaled through a consistent model – combining data-led selection, integrated distribution, and coordinated market execution – demonstrating how AS Watson brand lab functions as a repeatable engine for brand growth, from market entry through to regional scale.
Scaling a Repeatable Engine
AS Watson brand lab positions AS Watson to leverage its retail footprint not only as a distribution channel, but as an engine for brand creation and scaling.
The initiative signals a shift from opportunistic brand sourcing towards a structured, repeatable growth model, reinforcing AS Watson’s ability to scale brands with speed, discipline and consistency while driving long-term portfolio value.
AS Watson continues to engage with selected brand partners and emerging brands aligned with its focus areas, with further information available through its official
AS Watson brand lab platform (https://www.aswatson.com/asw-brand-lab)
Hashtag: #ASWatson
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
About AS Watson Group
Established in 1841, AS Watson Group is one of the world’s longest-standing and most recognised retail companies with roots in Asia. Today, the company operates over 17,000 stores across 12 retail brands in 31 markets, employing 130,000 people globally. This makes AS Watson Group the largest international health and beauty retailer in the world.
In the fiscal year 2025, AS Watson Group reported revenue of over US$26 billion. The company’s technology-enabled O+O (Offline plus Online) platforms serve over 6 billion shoppers annually, seamlessly integrating physical and digital retail experiences.
AS Watson Group supported over 180 charitable and non-profit organisations every year, dedicating over 40,000 hours of volunteer work to serve over 370,000 people in need in our operating markets.
AS Watson Group is also a member of the world-renowned multinational conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings Limited, which has four core businesses – ports and related services, retail, infrastructure and telecommunications in over 50 countries.
Please visit
www.aswatson.com/our-company/o-and-o-strategy/ for more information.
Media OutReach
HKSTP Forges An Asia–Europe Innovation Gateway at VivaTech 2026
A stream of partnership propose heightened tech and business connections across continents
HONG KONG / PARIS, FRANCE – Media OutReach Newswire – 22 June 2026 – Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation (HKSTP) has successfully concluded its Paris delegation to Viva Technology (VivaTech) 2026, which celebrated its 10th anniversary as a global stage for ambitious startups from June 17 to 20. HKSTP reinforces its impactful role as Asia’s I&T ecosystem orchestrator, by confirming the signing of multiple memorandums of understanding (MOU) between Park companies and the European I&T community:
- Microalgae expert Algreen, signed with ForNatures, a South Korean Climate Tech company that specialises in carbon capture management, in amplifying mutual research and development capabilities to take a step closer to ESG goals.
- Robotics solutions provider Robocore, signed with ARCHTYP, a Slovenian cognitive software startup, enabling the display of a differentiating layer on a proven platform to reach market demands, while also closing deals with French advertising guru JCDecaux, to supply a thousand robots and extend its reach in the European market.
- The appeal and use cases of LeafIoT‘s green asset management has caught the eyes of European’s professionals in the preservation sector, including the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), the Catalonian landscaping and environmental restoration company Gremi de Jardineria de Catalunya, and notably, Professor Andrea Galli from the Laboratory of Geotechnical Analysis and Modelling (GeoT-LAM) at Politecnico di Milano, all taking solid steps in exploring new opportunities and breakthroughs and boosts in market reach.
The annual showcase put a spotlight on enabling founders to connect with the local I&T community, explore market access, and forge global partnerships via pitching and matching sessions, networking mixers, and investor engagement. Compared with VivaTech 2025, this year’s delegation achieved even stronger momentum with over 50% growth in opportunities, totalling more than 200 potential business leads worth HK$70M in total.
HKSTP’s growing presence at VivaTech reflects its mission to open new doors for Hong Kong’s startups, build pathways into European markets and create reciprocal opportunities for European innovators to enter Asia through Hong Kong’s strategic location in the world’s No.1 innovation cluster – Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao GBA (World Intellectual Property Organisation Innovation Index).
Terry Wong, CEO of HKSTP, said: “France and the EU represent critical opportunities for Hong Kong and Chinese Mainland I&T ventures to scale globally. VivaTech provides a world-class platform for collaboration, co-creation, and knowledge exchange. Our strong ties with French partners underline the importance of Hong Kong as a global launchpad for innovation, supporting startups on their journey from local success to international impact.”
Highlights this year include the expansion of HKSTP’s partnership with Bouygues Construction, a global leader in sustainable construction and infrastructure headquartered in France, and operates across more than 60 countries and is recognised for delivering major projects in transport, energy, real estate, and smart cities.
Through its Hong Kong arm, Dragages Hong Kong, Bouygues has maintained a 70-year legacy in Hong Kong, contributing to iconic infrastructure projects and championing innovation in areas such as construction safety, modular design, green materials, and site automation. HKSTP is the first and only institution in Hong Kong to bridge tech venture directly into the Bouygues Construction “Scale One: programme, providing a fast track to prototyping and commercialisation. This initiative sets a new benchmark for cross-border industrial innovation partnerships, accelerating global impact for Hong Kong startups through trusted collaborations with leading European enterprises.
Building on existing strong foundations, Bouygues Construction is now stepping up collaboration with HKSTP beyond Asia, offering selected Hong Kong startups the chance to showcase solutions at Bouygues’ headquarters in France, with opportunities for solution validation and pilot trials across European operations.
The Hong Kong Tech Pavilion, organised by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) and supported by partners including HKSTP, showcased market-ready solutions spanning AI, green- and health tech from 24 tech ventures, and marked a major milestone in creating a direct bridge between Hong Kong and Europe’s heart of innovation and technology.
Hashtag: #HKSTP
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
HKSTP
More information about HKSTP is available at
www.hkstp.org.
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