Feature/OPED
Political Uncertainty: Can the ADC Afford a Wolf Politician?
By Abu Mahmud
The recent realignment within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is a direct response to its founding promise of transparency, accountability, and people-centered politics, free from money politics, godfatherism, and elite domination. The party seeks to harness a powerful opposition coalition while safeguarding its founding ideals from elite capture. Success will depend on how rigorously the ADC enforces its transparency and accountability mechanisms as the 2027 race intensifies.
As the 2027 elections approach, that promise is being put to the test. The ADC’s realignment is a high-stakes balancing act. The party must decide whether to open its doors to opportunistic politicians whose primary currency is personal ambition. Such “wolves” may bring short-term numbers, but they threaten the party’s credibility, cohesion, and long-term legacy. The ADC’s true strength lies in shared values, not in the whims of any single individual.
If the ADC admits politicians driven more by personal ambition than by shared ideals, it risks undermining its very foundation. As electioneering draws nearer, the party stands at a crossroads: either remain faithful to its principles or sacrifice them for short-term political advantage. Its credibility, cohesion, and long-term relevance depend on choosing the former.
As Nigeria moves toward the 2027 general elections, the country needs leaders of integrity—visionary, unifying, and committed to national development above sectional or personal interests. Such leaders must be accountable, open to competent new talent, and committed to institution-building, job creation, poverty reduction, and national cohesion, rather than divisive, self-serving politics.
At this critical moment, Nigerians cannot afford leadership captured by individuals who exploit poverty and emotion through populist rhetoric while pursuing narrow ambitions. Citizens must distinguish between politicians who seek power and wealth for themselves and those who serve with integrity, transparency, and a genuine commitment to community development.
A political party is bigger than any individual. It is built on shared values and collective purpose, not personal ownership. When individuals attempt to dominate a party, democracy weakens and godfatherism thrives.
Even before the election season, there is a real possibility that the ruling establishment could attempt to weaken opposition forces through proxy infiltration, sowing discord within emerging coalitions.
This concern is heightened as the PDP faces what may be its weakest moment since inception.
Atiku Abubakar has emerged as a central figure in a new opposition coalition that has adopted the ADC as its platform for 2027. The coalition includes figures such as former Senate President David Mark (interim national chairman), former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola (interim secretary), Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and others. They have held consultations on party structure and strategy, advocating transparent primaries and urging members—including Peter Obi—to fully transition into the ADC. Atiku’s exit from the PDP and registration with the ADC signal a coordinated effort to challenge the APC government.
This context raises a critical question: can the ADC afford to admit politicians whose entry is conditioned on personal guarantees?
One recurring feature of some Kano-based politicians is the tendency to conflate local dominance with national relevance. Through emotionally charged rhetoric, such figures mobilize loyal supporters while mistaking regional popularity for nationwide appeal. More troubling is the practice of setting conditions even before joining a party.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has openly stated that he would only defect to another party if offered the presidential or vice-presidential ticket for 2027. He argued that his decades-long political career entitles him to such consideration, insisting that his supporters would accept nothing less. Yet this posture contrasts sharply with the conduct of other coalition members who have subordinated personal ambition to collective negotiation. To demand special concessions while others make sacrifices raises serious questions about motive, sensitivity, and commitment to a shared cause.
This article is not rooted in personal animosity or partisan loyalty. Rather, it examines a political style defined by populism, personality-driven movements, and frequent party migration motivated by immediate ambition rather than ideology. Kwankwaso commands a loyal base in Kano, where he is celebrated as a champion of the masses.
Beyond that stronghold, however, his career is marked by serial defections—from PDP to APC to NNPP—each aligned with personal calculations rather than consistent principles. Supporters describe this as pragmatism; critics call it political nomadism.
Recent developments in Kano have punctured the myth of Kwankwaso’s invincibility. Political ruptures within the state have exposed a reality long obscured by propaganda: his influence depends heavily on access to state power.
Without control of institutional machinery, his dominance diminishes. Electoral outcomes reinforce this limitation. In the last presidential election, Atiku Abubakar secured over seven million votes, Peter Obi over six million, while Kwankwaso garnered just 1.14 million—nearly all from Kano.
Governor Abba Yusuf’s anticipated defection to the APC further signals a shift in Kano’s political landscape. While the Kwankwasiyya movement remains relevant, its grip on state power is weakening. This moment calls for recalibration, not confrontation. Politics is not a do-or-die affair, and clinging to power at all costs risks eroding both dignity and legacy.
Reports of behind-the-scenes meetings involving Kwankwaso and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, along with speculation that he could be used to destabilize opposition parties, only deepen concerns about his role in any coalition. As his influence wanes, he increasingly portrays himself as a victim of betrayal, rallying supporters with narratives that elevate personal loyalty above political evolution.
In a political maneuver aimed at self-preservation, reports claimed that the former NNPP presidential candidate sought the intervention of Chief Bisi Akande to arrange a direct meeting with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to negotiate his defection. Akande reportedly declined, stressing that he could not bypass established party structures, and instead referred Kwankwaso to the party’s official high-level negotiation committee.
The NNPP has also stated that, according to its constitution, the Kano State governor is the party leader, being its only sitting governor. Kwankwaso, they noted, was merely the party’s 2023 presidential candidate—an arrangement that ended after the election when the Memorandum of Association between the party and the Kwankwasiyya Movement expired.
Despite his anxiety about his political future, Kwankwaso has been unable to explain to the youths—whose blind loyalty he still relies on—why many long-standing allies dating back to 1999 have walked away. Absent from his narrative is any reckoning with his habit of discarding those who helped build his career: Senator Hamisu Musa, Musa Gwadabe, Abubakar Rimi, among others. Political independence is not betrayal; it is a legitimate pursuit.
When Abdullahi Ganduje parted ways with Kwankwaso, he endured ridicule and abuse. In my view, Kwankwaso and his supporters should at least appreciate Abba Gida-Gida’s restraint in not publicly recounting the unpleasant experiences surrounding his emergence as governor under the NNPP. While the Kwankwaso–Abba conflict is fundamentally political—a struggle for solutions and self-determination—there remains a clear distinction between betrayal, the pursuit of solutions, and the quest for independence from total submission. Madugo’s recent speeches, laden with symbolism and coded language aimed at Governor Abba Yusuf, reflect nothing more than a troubling lack of restraint.
For Atiku, other heavyweight politicians, and the ADC, the lesson is clear: no serious political party should mortgage its future on conditional loyalty or personal ambition. The party’s strength lies in its principles, not in accommodating politicians who seek to bend its vision to their own ends.
At this stage, Kwankwaso’s political control appears to have reached its limits. History shows that successful politicians understand timing, terrain, and temperament. They fight when the cause is just, support is solid, and victory is achievable. They retreat when the odds are stacked, when emotion outweighs reason, or when temporary withdrawal can prevent permanent defeat. It may be time for him to step aside gracefully, preserve his dignity, and protect his legacy. When an ant becomes arrogant, it grows wings.
Power is not bestowed by any individual; it is granted by Allah alone, who gives and withdraws authority as He wills. Both Islam and Christianity affirm this truth: power is a divine trust, not personal property. Any posture that suggests authority flows from personal will contradicts both faith and reality.
Mahmud writes from Hadejia Road, Kano
By Isah Kamisu Madachi
The news that the Nigerian businessman, Aliko Dangote, plans to expand his business interest into steel production, electricity generation, and port development as part of his broader ambition to accelerate industrialisation in Africa deserves a quick reflection on the promises it carries for Nigeria. It is coming from Dangote at a time when many African countries, including Nigeria, are still struggling with below-average industrial capacity. This move speaks to something important about how prosperity is actually built.
In their Influential book ‘The Prosperity Paradox: How Innovation Can Lift Nations Out of Poverty,’ Clayton Christensen, Efosa Ojomo, and Karen Dillon argue that countries rarely overcome poverty through aid, policy declarations or resource endowments alone. According to them, the effective engine of prosperity has always been market-creating innovations by private and public enterprises that build new industries, generate jobs, and expand economic opportunities for ordinary people.
Even though their theory focuses largely on creating something new or producing it exceptionally, Dangote’s new industrial ambition seems closer to the latter. It is about producing essential things at a scale and efficiency that the existing system has failed to achieve.
Take, for example, the electricity sector in Nigeria. Since the beginning of the current Fourth Republic, billions of dollars have been allocated to power sector reforms, yet electricity supply remains unstable, and many Nigerians still depend heavily on generators to power their homes and businesses. The situation has continued to deteriorate despite the enormous resources committed to the sector by the coming of every new administration.
This is not surprising. In The Prosperity Paradox, the authors explain how nations and even international organisations sometimes keep investing huge resources in certain activities only to realise much later that they were simply hitting the wrong target. The problem is not always the lack of funding; sometimes it is the absence of a functioning market system capable of producing and distributing essential services efficiently.
Seen from this perspective, Dangote’s move into electricity generation may mean more than just an investment. It could be an attempt to tackle one of the most critically lingering bottlenecks in Nigeria’s economic development. If I were to be asked to decide which sector Dangote should begin with in this new industrial plan, I would unhesitatingly choose electricity. It is the most embattled, deeply corrupted and seemingly jeopardised beyond repair, yet the most important sector for the everyday life of citizens.
Stable electricity has the power to transform productivity across every sector. When power supply becomes reliable, small businesses are created, productivity is boosted across all sectors, and households enjoy a better quality of life. Nigeria’s long-standing energy poverty has been strangulating the productive potential of millions of people for decades. Fixing that problem alone would unlock enormous economic possibilities more than expected.
Beyond the issue of productivity, Dangote’s entry into these sectors could also stimulate competition. Healthy competition is one of the most effective drivers of efficiency in any economy. The example of the refinery project already shows how a large-scale private investment can disrupt long-standing structural weaknesses within a sector. A similar dynamic in the proposed sectors could encourage other investors to participate and expand industrial capacity.
Nigeria, by 2030, is projected to need 30 to 40 million new jobs to absorb its rapidly growing population. The scale of this challenge means that the government alone, especially in the Nigerian context, cannot create the necessary opportunities to fill this gap. Private enterprises will have to play a major role in expanding productive sectors of the economy. If supported by the right policy environment, they could contribute significantly to narrowing Nigeria’s widening job gap.
Of course, no single business initiative can solve all structural challenges in the economy. But bold investments of this nature often serve as catalysts for broader economic transformation. With the right support and healthy competition from other investors, initiatives like these could help push Nigeria closer to the kind of industrial foundation that many developed economies built decades ago.
In the end, the lesson is simple: prosperity rarely emerges from policy debates alone. It often begins with large-scale productive ventures that reshape markets, unlock productivity at both small-scale and large-scale businesses, and create direct and indirect economic opportunities for millions of common men and women.
Isah Kamisu Madachi is a policy analyst and development practitioner. He writes via is***************@***il.com
Weddings have always held a special place in African culture. They are more than ceremonies; they are declarations of love, family, identity, and tradition. From the vibrant colours of aso-ebi to the rhythmic sounds of live bands and the emotional exchange of vows, weddings represent a moment of cultural heritage.
In recent years, weddings have gone beyond physical venues. What was once an exclusive gathering for family and friends has transformed into a shared experience for wider audiences. Social media first opened the door, allowing guests and admirers to witness love stories in real time through Instagram posts, TikTok highlights, and YouTube recaps.
And now, television platforms are taking this even further, giving weddings a new kind of permanence and reach.
High-profile weddings, like the widely celebrated union of Adeyemi Idowu, popularly known as Yhemolee (Olowo Eko) and his wife Oyindamola, fondly known as ThayourB, captured massive public attention. Moments from their wedding became a live shared experience on television (GOtv & DStv).
From the high fashion statements to the emotional highlights, viewers were able to feel part of something bigger, a reminder that weddings inspire not just both families but entire communities.
This shift reflects a broader reality: weddings today are content. They inspire conversations about fashion, relationships, lifestyle, and aspiration. They preserve memories in ways previous generations could only imagine. For Gen Z couples, their wedding is no longer just a day; it becomes a story that can be revisited, celebrated, and even inspire others planning their own journey to forever.
Broadcast platforms like GOtv are playing a meaningful role in this transformation. By bringing wedding-related content directly into homes, GOtv is helping audiences experience these moments not just through social media snippets but in real time.
One of the most notable offerings is Channel 105, The Wedding Channel, Africa’s first 24-hour wedding channel, available on GOtv. The channel is fully dedicated to African weddings, lifestyle, and bridal fashion, showcasing everything from dream ceremonies to the realities of married life. Programs like Wedding Police and Wedding on a Budget, and shows like 5 Years Later, offer a deeper look into marriage itself, reminding viewers that weddings are just the beginning of a lifelong journey.
GOtv is preserving culture, celebrating love, and inspiring future couples with this channel. It allows viewers to witness traditions from different regions, discover new ideas, and feel connected to moments that might otherwise remain private.
With platforms like GOtv, stories continue to live on screens across Africa, where love, culture, and celebration can be experienced by all.
To upgrade, subscribe, or reconnect, download the MyGOtv App or dial *288#. For catch-up and on-the-go viewing, download the GOtv Stream App and enjoy your favourite shows anytime, anywhere.
Nigeria is entering a timing-sensitive macro set-up as the oil complex reprices disruption risk and the US dollar firms. Brent moved violently this week, settling at $77.74 on 02 March, up 6.68% on the day, after trading as high as $82.37 before settling around $78.07 on 3 March. For Nigeria, the immediate hook is the overlap with domestic policy: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has just cut its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.50%, whilst headline inflation is still 15.10% year on year in January.
“Investors often talk about Nigeria as an oil story, but the market response is frequently a timing story,” said David Barrett, Chief Executive Officer, EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd. “When the pass-through clock runs ahead of the policy clock, inflation risk, and United States Dollar (USD) demand can show up before any oil benefit is felt in day-to-day liquidity.”
Policy and Pricing Regime Shift: One Shock, Different Clocks
EBC Financial Group (“EBC”) frames Nigeria’s current set-up as “policy-lag arbitrage”: the same external energy shock can hit domestic costs, FX liquidity, and monetary transmission on different timelines. A risk premium that begins in crude can quickly show up in delivered costs through freight and insurance, and EBC notes that downstream pressure has been visible in refined markets, with jet fuel and diesel cash premiums hitting multi-year highs.
Market Impact: Oil Support is Conditional, Pass-through is Not
EBC points out that higher crude is not automatically supportive of the naira in the short run because “oil buffer” depends on how quickly external receipts translate into market-clearing USD liquidity. Recent price action illustrates the sensitivity: the naira was quoted at 1,344 per dollar on the official market on 19 February, compared with 1,357 a week earlier, whilst street trading was cited around 1,385.
At the same time, Nigeria’s inflation channel can move quickly even during disinflation: headline inflation eased to 15.10% in January from 15.15% in December, and food inflation slowed to 8.89% from 10.84%, but energy-led transport and logistics costs can reintroduce pressure if the risk premium persists. EBC also points to a broader Nigeria-specific reality: the economy grew 4.07% year on year in 4Q25, with the oil sector expanding 6.79% and non-oil 3.99%, whilst average daily oil production slipped to 1.58 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd in 3Q25. That mix supports external-balance potential, but it also underscores why the domestic liquidity benefit can arrive with a lag.
Nigeria’s Buffer Looks Stronger, but It Does Not Eliminate Sequencing Risk
EBC sees that near-term external resilience is improving. The CBN Governor said gross external reserves rose to USD 50.45 billion as of 16 February 2026, equivalent to 9.68 months of import cover for goods and services. Even so, EBC views the market’s focus as pragmatic: in a risk-off tape, investors tend to price the order of transmission, not the eventual balance-of-payments benefit.
In the near term, EBC expects attention to rotate to scheduled energy and policy signposts that can confirm whether the current repricing is a short, violent adjustment or a more durable regime shift, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (10 March 2026), OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (11 March 2026), and the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting (17 to 18 March 2026). On the domestic calendar, the CBN’s published schedule points to the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 19 to 20 May 2026.
Risk Frame: The Market Prices the Lag, Not the Headline
EBC cautions that outcomes are asymmetric. A rapid de-escalation could compress the crude risk premium quickly, but once freight, insurance, and hedging behaviour adjust, second-round effects can linger through inflation uncertainty and a more persistent USD bid.
“Oil can act as a shock absorber for Nigeria, but only when the liquidity channel is working,” Barrett added. “If USD conditions tighten first and domestic pass-through accelerates, the market prices the lag, not the headline oil price.”
Brent remains an anchor instrument for tracking this timing risk because it links energy-led inflation expectations, USD liquidity, and emerging-market risk appetite in one market. EBC Commodities offering provides access to Brent Crude Spot (XBRUSD) via its trading platform for following energy-driven macro volatility through a single instrument.
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