Feature/OPED
Nigeria’s CPI Rebase Broke the Data: Here’s What the Unbroken Picture Actually Shows
By Ejiye Jimeta Ibhawoh
When the NBS rebased the Consumer Price Index in February 2025, and headline inflation fell overnight from 34.80% to 24.48%, yields compressed, and fixed income rallied. A question that should have been straightforward became almost impossible to answer: what is cash actually earning in Nigeria after inflation?
We know what the commentary said. Statistical fix or economic illusion. Cost of living still high. Basket weights shifted. All true, all well-covered. But nobody did the obvious next thing: build the bridge between the old series and the new one, then show what a continuous 15-year picture of Nigerian real returns actually looks like. We did.
The problem with two CPI series
The old NBS CPI ran from a November 2009 base, 740 items weighted by the 2003/04 Nigeria Living Standards Survey. The new methodology uses a 2024 average base, 934 items, and 2023 weights. Food and non-alcoholic beverages dropped from 51.8% to 40.1%. Restaurants and accommodation surged from 1.2% to 12.9%. A 13th COICOP division was added (Insurance and Financial Services). That alone tells you how much the consumption basket has shifted.
These are legitimate improvements. Nigeria’s spending patterns have genuinely changed since 2009. Nobody disputes that.
The problem is continuity. NBS published no officially chain-linked historical series. The old index ends in December 2024. The new one picks up in January 2025. Month-on-month rates don’t match across the boundary. Stops & Gaps documented a particularly egregious discontinuity: the rebased index implies prices fell 12.3% in a single month in December 2024. The largest actual single-month decline since 1995 was 3.5%.
For anyone maintaining a time series (pension fund benchmarking, fixed income attribution, real return measurement), the data is broken. Every analyst in Lagos knows this. Most shrugged and moved on.
Chain-linking: what we built and why
We followed the IMF CPI Manual, Chapter 9, for linking series across base-period changes. December 2024 is the overlap month where both old-base and new-base CPI levels exist. The chain-linking factor comes out at 0.11523. We rescaled the entire old series onto the new base.
The result: 204 continuous monthly CPI observations from February 2009 to January 2026. One hundred and ninety-one back-tested months on the old base, spliced to 13 live months on the new base. No interpolation. No estimation. Month-on-month rates are preserved through the splice point, and every calculation is reproducible from published NBS and CBN data.
We paired this CPI series with CBN 91-day T-bill stop rates from primary auctions to construct the VNG-CRR, the Venoble Nigeria Cash Real Return Index. Two inputs per month. NBS CPI level. CBN stop rate. Fisher equation. All compounds into an index.
The headline: over 204 months, Nigerian cash earned +9.48% annualised in nominal terms and −5.48% annualised in real terms. This is consistent, cumulative, and structural purchasing power destruction.
Put it differently. N1 million placed in 91-day T-bills in February 2009 would be worth roughly N4.7 million as of January 2026 in nominal terms. Adjust for what that money can actually buy, and the real value is closer to N380,000. The T-bill investor multiplied his digits and shrank his wealth.
Why this matters now
Start with pension fund allocation. Nigeria’s pension assets reached N26.66 trillion as of October 2025. Roughly 60% (c.N16 trillion) sits in FGN securities. If the annualised real return on government paper has been negative for 15 consecutive years, what does that mean for 10 million contributor accounts? The OECD flagged this in its 2024 pension report using 2023 data. Pension funds in Nigeria, Angola, and Egypt, where more than half of assets sit in bills and bonds, delivered negative real returns. PenCom raised equity limits in February 2026: RSA Fund I from 30% to 35%, RSA Fund II from 25% to 33% and while this is indeed a step in the right direction, it is not enough.
Then there is the visibility problem. Under the old methodology, a 91-day bill at 18% against 34.8% inflation was obviously underwater. Under the new CPI, the same bill at 15% against 15.15% inflation looks like a break-even. Did real returns improve, or did the statistical agency change the yardstick? In our view, both. Inflation has genuinely decelerated: monthly CPI growth dropped below 1.0% for several consecutive months in H2 2025. But the rebase also flatters the comparison by c.10 percentage points. Without a continuous series, you cannot separate the two effects.
And the sign has flipped. This is not speculation. From August 2025 through January 2026, the VNG-CRR recorded six consecutive months of positive real returns. January 2026 was the strongest at +4.39% real. Month-on-month CPI fell 2.88% while the nominal T-bill return was 1.38%. The real index climbed from
984 to 1,027, above its inception base of 1,000 for the first time.
After 15 years of negative returns, real returns have turned positive. Whether that holds is the question nobody can answer yet.
What we do not know
We don’t have a strong view on the persistence of the disinflation trend. The December 2025 CPI base effect is messy. The rebased December 2024 level was set at 100, which creates arithmetic distortions in year-on-year comparisons as that month rotates out. Headline YoY inflation could spike artificially in December 2025 data even if underlying prices remain stable. Anyone anchoring allocation decisions to year-on-year headline numbers will get whipsawed.
We also cannot tell you whether the new CPI basket accurately captures the cost-of-living reality for the median Nigerian. Restaurants and accommodation at 12.9% may reflect urban middle-class spending in Victoria Island and Wuse. It does not reflect what a civil servant in Kano or a smallholder farmer in Benue pays for food and transport. The CPI measures what it measures. It is not a cost-of-living index. That distinction matters more than most post-rebase commentary acknowledged, and it is the gap a continuous real return series is designed to fill.
The allocation question
Here is what the data does tell you. Over 204 months, the real return hurdle rate (what an alternative investment must beat just to match cash in purchasing-power terms) has been low. Negative, in fact. Any asset class generating positive real returns has beaten cash. Equities: the NGX ASI returned 51.19% in 2025. Real estate in Lekki and Abuja CBD. Dollar-denominated instruments accessed through NAFEM. All cleared the hurdle.
With real yields now positive, the calculus shifts. Cash is no longer guaranteed wealth destruction. But 15 years of compounded losses do not reverse in six months. The real index is at 1,027. It needs sustained positive real returns to recover the purchasing power lost over the prior decade.
For pension fund administrators and asset managers, the implication is straightforward: measure everything against the real return on cash. Not nominal yields. Not headline inflation. The actual, chain-linked, continuously compounded purchasing-power return. If your portfolio is not beating that number, you are losing money regardless of what the nominal statement says.
Why independent benchmarks matter
Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa and the largest pension assets on the continent. Its data infrastructure for institutional investors is among the weakest. South Africa has inflation-linked bonds, a real repo rate published by the SARB, and a mature index ecosystem. Nigeria has a CPI series with a structural break and no official chain-linked alternative.
The gap is not in analytical capacity. There’s no shortage of Nigerian research firms producing excellent work. The gap is infrastructure. Auditable, rules-based benchmarks that any market participant can verify.
Not commentary. Not opinions about what inflation feels like. Published, reproducible numbers.
That is what we built the VNG-CRR to provide. Two inputs. One equation. One index. Updated monthly.
Methodology published. Data downloadable. Every calculation is auditable against source data. All are completely free to the public.
The CPI rebase broke the data. We built the unbroken picture because nobody else did. Whether NBS eventually publishes its own chain-linked series, or the market continues relying on independent providers, says something about where Nigeria’s capital market infrastructure actually stands. We do not think anyone in Abuja is losing sleep over it, but maybe they should be.
E.J. Ibhawoh is the founder and CEO of Venoble Limited, an investment intelligence and capital management firm for African markets. He is a FINRA-qualified capital markets professional with a background spanning investment banking, trading, and software development.
Feature/OPED
From Force to Partnership: How IGP Disu is Changing the Police Narrative
By Jerome-Mario Utomi
There are moments in the life of a nation when leadership is measured not merely by the ability to command institutions but by the courage to transform them. Such moments demand more than administrative competence; they require vision, strategic communication, and an unwavering commitment to rebuilding public confidence. The keynote address delivered on behalf of the Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Mr Olatunji Rilwan Disu, at the Lagos PR Fest 2026 grand finale was one of such defining moments.
Held at the iconic MUSON Centre, Onikan, Lagos, the event transcended the boundaries of a conventional police engagement. It became a national conversation on security, governance, public trust, and the indispensable role of strategic communication in nation-building.
More importantly, the IGP, who was represented at the event by AIG Simeon Udofia Akpanudom, Head of the Force Criminal Investigation Department (FCID) Annex, Alagbon Close, Ikoyi, revealed a policing philosophy that is quietly but deliberately redefining the image and operational culture of the Nigeria Police Force.
For decades, public perception of policing in Nigeria has largely been shaped by mistrust, misunderstanding, and an unfortunate history of strained relations between citizens and law enforcement agencies. While successive administrations have introduced reforms, many struggled to address the most fundamental ingredient of effective policing-public trust.
IGP Disu appears determined to confront that challenge from an entirely different perspective.
His declaration that “security is everyone’s business” was not a rhetorical flourish. It was a profound statement of intent. It reflected an understanding that sustainable security cannot be achieved through coercion alone but through partnership, inclusion, transparency, and continuous engagement with the people. Indeed, what the IGP has introduced is more than institutional reform. It is a comprehensive rebranding of policing itself.
Unlike cosmetic rebranding that focuses on uniforms, slogans, or public ceremonies, this initiative is rooted in changing institutional culture and public perception simultaneously. It seeks to replace fear with confidence, suspicion with collaboration, and silence with meaningful dialogue.
The brilliance of this approach lies in its recognition that trust is not demanded; it is earned.
Throughout the keynote, the IGP consistently emphasised evidence-based communication, accountability, and transparency as pillars upon which public confidence must be rebuilt. At a time when misinformation travels faster than facts, and public institutions are constantly subjected to intense scrutiny, his insistence that policing should be supported by credible information rather than propaganda reflects both wisdom and contemporary relevance.
Perhaps nowhere is this transformation more visible than in the establishment and expansion of the Violent Crimes Response Unit (VCRU). Rather than allowing achievements to remain hidden within internal reports, the Nigeria Police Force is increasingly communicating measurable outcomes, demonstrable operational effectiveness, and encouraging independent public assessment.
This deliberate openness and transparency represent a significant departure from the communication style traditionally associated with many security institutions.
Equally commendable is the renewed emphasis on accessible channels for complaints, feedback and citizen engagement. Every modern democratic institution understands that accountability strengthens authority rather than weakening it. By inviting public scrutiny instead of avoiding it, the Nigeria Police under IGP Disu is gradually redefining what institutional confidence should look like. The Inspector-General deserves particular commendation for recognising that public relations is not an appendage to policing but an operational necessity.
Far too often, public relations is misunderstood as image laundering or crisis management. In reality, effective public relations is about building relationships, creating understanding, managing expectations, and sustaining credibility. It is this broader and more professional understanding that permeated the Inspector-General’s address.
His decision to engage public relations professionals at Lagos PR Fest was therefore highly symbolic. It demonstrated that security communication must evolve beyond press statements announcing arrests or crime statistics. It must become a continuous conversation with citizens, communities, opinion leaders, professional bodies, and the media.
Equally remarkable is the renewed focus on community policing and the revitalisation of the Police Community Relations Committee (PCRC). These initiatives acknowledge an enduring truth: communities understand their security challenges better than distant bureaucracies.
By encouraging local participation, youth engagement, religious leaders, traditional institutions, and civil society organisations to become active stakeholders, the Nigeria Police is moving policing closer to the people it serves.
This approach is consistent with successful policing models across the world where intelligence flows more freely because communities trust law enforcement agencies enough to share information.
The emphasis on participatory campaigns such as “Security is Everyone’s Business” and “If you see something, say something” further reinforces this philosophy. These messages wisely redefine every citizen from being a passive observer into an active contributor to national security.
That represents strategic public relations at its finest. Perhaps the most compelling dimension of the Inspector General’s address is his deliberate connection between policing and nation-building.
Security does not exist in isolation. It supports economic growth, encourages investment, protects democratic institutions, and creates the stability necessary for social development. Safe highways promote commerce. Secure schools guarantee educational continuity. Protected communities attract investment. Professional law enforcement strengthens constitutional governance.
Viewed through this broader lens, policing becomes an essential instrument of national development rather than merely an agency of law enforcement. The Inspector-General’s appeal for “Nigeria First” narratives equally deserves commendation. In an era characterised by misinformation, polarisation, and divisive narratives, institutions must intentionally promote messages that unite rather than divide.
Strategic communication has become an important national asset. This is where professional public relations practitioners have an enormous responsibility. Their expertise extends beyond media visibility to fostering social cohesion, encouraging responsible public discourse, and strengthening confidence in democratic institutions.
The Nigerian Institute of Public Relations (NIPR), therefore, occupies a strategic position in supporting this national assignment.
Naturally, scepticism remains understandable. Public confidence, once diminished, cannot be restored overnight. Institutional reforms require consistency, measurable outcomes, and sustained leadership commitment.
Fortunately, the Inspector-General himself demonstrated refreshing realism by acknowledging that rebuilding trust remains an ongoing process. That honesty itself strengthens credibility.
His clearly articulated roadmap-rebuilding institutional credibility through transparency, strengthening community intelligence through grassroots participation, and promoting national cohesion through coordinated communication-provides a practical framework for long-term institutional renewal.
Importantly, these objectives align with internationally recognised principles of democratic policing. What distinguishes the current leadership is the willingness to place communication at the very centre of institutional transformation rather than treating it as an afterthought.
Leadership is often remembered less for the challenges inherited than for the direction established. Judging from the philosophy articulated at Lagos PR Fest 2026, IGP Disu is laying the foundation for a policing model that recognises that legitimacy derives not only from constitutional authority but from public confidence.
That distinction is profound. A police force may possess legal powers, but without public trust those powers become increasingly difficult to exercise effectively. Conversely, when citizens willingly cooperate, volunteer intelligence, respect lawful authority, and see themselves as partners, security becomes collective rather than confrontational.
That appears to be the future envisioned by the Inspector-General. His concluding appeal that all stakeholders must work together in transparency, accountability, and shared responsibility captures the essence of democratic policing in the twenty-first century.
Ultimately, the significance of the Lagos PR Fest address extends far beyond one conference or one keynote presentation. It represents a declaration that the Nigeria Police Force is prepared to measure success not only by arrests made or crimes prevented but also by relationships built, confidence restored, and communities united.
For me, the recent elevation by the IGP and express approval by the Nigerian Police Service Commission of some senior officers to the rank of Assistant Inspectors-General of Police (AIGs). Commissioners of Police (CPs) and others truly proves beyond reasonable doubt that the IGP is a man who understands that professionalism, strategic thinking and operational excellence are the defining features of global policing. In fact, analysts in particular and Nigerians of goodwill in general are beginning to view the recent appointment of IGP Disu as a very huge blessing to the nation.
If sustained with consistency, integrity, and measurable performance, this strategic shift may well become one of the most consequential institutional reforms in contemporary Nigeria. For at the heart of every peaceful nation lies a simple but enduring truth: security thrives where trust flourishes.
By placing strategic public relations at the centre of policing, IGP Disu has demonstrated an appreciation of that timeless principle. In doing so, he has presented Nigerians with something far more valuable than a communication strategy. He has presented a vision.
A vision in which the police badge symbolises not fear but reassurance; not distance but partnership; not mere authority but earned legitimacy. That is a vision worthy of national support, thoughtful reflection, and sustained implementation.
Utomi, a media specialist, writes from Lagos, Nigeria. He can be reached via Je*********@***oo.com/08032725374
Feature/OPED
How Responsible Borrowing Can Help You Reach Your Financial Goals
By Gloria Onosode
For generations, conventional financial advice has treated debt like a trap — a final, desperate resort for emergency cash or a slippery slope toward financial instability. But as Nigeria’s economic terrain evolves, this defensive mindset is changing. Progressive business leaders, entrepreneurs, and forward-thinking individuals are realising that it can be an important financial tool for achieving personal or business objectives when used responsibly and within one’s repayment capacity.
To build a sustainable financial future, we must change our relationship with credit. Borrowing shouldn’t be a cycle of survival; it should form part of a broader financial plan designed to support sustainable growth. The secret lies in masterfully understanding borrowing for productive purposes and learning how to leverage purposeful borrowing to hit your most ambitious milestones.
At its core, the difference between constructive and destructive borrowing comes down to one fundamental principle: what does the cash do once it lands in your account?
Bad debt funds depreciating lifestyle assets or temporary consumption. Borrowing to buy luxury clothing, fund a lavish party, or upgrade to a consumer gadget that does not increase your income simply pulls future earnings forward to pay for a fleeting present moment. It drains cash flow without offering a return.
Conversely, good debt acts as an investment in your future self or your company. It is capital deployed to acquire assets, increase productivity, or generate recurring revenue that far outpaces the cost of the interest. When you borrow to buy a delivery truck for your logistics company, stock up on inventory ahead of a peak retail season, or fund a specialised certification, you aren’t spending money — you are investing in assets that may contribute to increased productivity and income generation.
When integrated into a clear, long-term plan, purposeful loans may enable eligible borrowers to respond more quickly to business opportunities that would otherwise take years to save for. For small and medium enterprises (SMEs), cash-flow timing mismatches are the silent killers of momentum. You might get a massive corporate purchase order but lack the immediate working capital to fulfil it. Waiting weeks to organically pool cash from existing revenue means losing the contract. Appropriately structured commercial financing can help businesses address temporary working-capital gaps, ensuring that viable opportunities turn into realised revenue.
In inflation-heavy environments, waiting to save up the full purchase price for vital business assets like manufacturing machinery, solar power installations, or commercial vehicles can backfire, as equipment costs often outpace savings rates. By using asset-backed financing, you can acquire the equipment today, put it to work immediately, and allow the asset to generate revenue that may contribute towards financing costs over time.
Investment in skills and capacity development can generate significant long-term benefits. Utilising credit to fund high-value education, technical upskilling, or operational training directly expands your earning capacity. The resultant career advancement or business efficiency multiplies your income potential for decades to come.
Shifting from a defensive borrowing stance to a wealth-creation strategy requires strict financial discipline. Truly responsible borrowing is anchored in three non-negotiable practices.
First, borrow only for a productive purpose. It can be tempting to redirect a portion of a business loan toward personal expenses. Resist the urge; borrowed funds should be applied primarily to the purpose for which the financing was obtained.
Second, know your repayment runway before you sign. Borrowing decisions should be supported by realistic cash-flow planning and repayment capacity assessments. Review your cash-flow data, factor in market fluctuations, and map out exactly how the investment will generate the funds needed to clear the balance.
Finally, prioritise speed and transparency. In today’s fast-moving market, opportunity doesn’t wait for weeks of manual paperwork. Borrowing decisions should be supported by realistic cash-flow planning and repayment capacity assessments that offer transparent pricing with no hidden fees, giving you the clarity needed to compute your precise cost of capital.
When you strip away the historical stigma surrounding credit, you find that borrowing is simply a neutral financial tool. In the hands of an undisciplined spender, it creates friction, but in the hands of a strategic planner, it can support business growth and financial planning when used responsibly.
As you look toward your next major milestone — whether that is expanding your storefront, digitising your corporate supply chain, or acquiring productive assets — Before taking on any borrowing commitment, carefully assess your financing needs, repayment capacity, and long-term financial objectives. Instead, ask yourself if your business can afford the cost of standing still. When used responsibly, purpose-driven credit can support individuals and businesses in achieving sustainable financial goals.
Responsible borrowing also means understanding that credit creates a legal repayment obligation. Borrowers should carefully assess affordability, understand all applicable charges, and avoid taking on debt beyond their repayment capacity.
Gloria Onosode is the Director of Enterprise Sales at FairMoney Business
Feature/OPED
Three Interdependent Pillars Reshaping African Financial Infrastructure
By Winston Osuchukwu
Africa’s financial infrastructure is entering a defining phase. Digital adoption continues to accelerate, financial inclusion is deepening, and institutions across the ecosystem are investing in connected, data-driven services. According to the World Bank’s Global Findex Database, account ownership across Sub-Saharan Africa has expanded significantly over the past decade, while mobile money continues to process hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Sustained investment in Africa’s fintech ecosystem reflects the same growing confidence in the continent’s financial future.
As the ecosystem matures, success will depend less on isolated innovation and more on how institutions connect their capabilities. The next phase of financial infrastructure is being shaped by three interdependent pillars: connected ecosystems that widen the data available on each customer, data intelligence that turns that scattered data into a single coherent picture, and intelligent decision-making that turns insight into measurable outcomes.
Connected Ecosystems Create the Foundation for Intelligence
No single institution has a complete view of the financial ecosystem. Banks, fintechs, payment providers, telecommunications companies, regulators, and other participants each contribute different pieces of the picture. As these organisations become more connected through interoperable payment systems, shared infrastructure, and collaborative partnerships, financial services become more accessible and seamless for individuals and businesses alike.
Connectivity alone, however, is not enough. A more connected ecosystem also creates exponentially more data, and unless that information can be integrated and interpreted consistently, greater connectivity simply produces greater complexity. The value of collaboration therefore depends on the ability to transform fragmented information into a coherent picture.
Data Intelligence Creates Shared Understanding
Once data flows across connected ecosystems, the next challenge is making sense of it. Financial institutions need more than access to information; they need the ability to unify diverse data sources, identify meaningful patterns, and generate insights that accurately reflect customer behaviour, operational performance, and emerging risks.
Data intelligence provides this common understanding. It enables institutions to move beyond isolated datasets and develop a trusted, enterprise-wide view that supports regulatory compliance, operational efficiency, and customer-centric innovation. Yet even the clearest insight has limited value if it remains descriptive. Understanding what is happening is only useful when institutions can confidently decide what to do next.
Intelligent Decisions Drive Real Outcomes
This is where artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, and machine learning become transformative. Built on a foundation of connected ecosystems and high-quality data intelligence, these technologies enable organisations to make faster, more consistent decisions across lending, fraud detection, compliance, customer engagement, and strategic planning.
Rather than replacing human expertise, intelligent decision-making augments it by helping institutions anticipate change, respond proactively, and allocate resources more effectively. When decisions are powered by reliable data and supported by a connected financial ecosystem, organisations become more resilient, customers enjoy better experiences, and the entire financial value chain operates more efficiently.
Africa’s financial future will not be shaped by technology or data in isolation. Progress requires that these capabilities work together. Connected ecosystems generate the information. Data intelligence transforms that information into “features” – the meaningful attributes of a customer’s behaviour that a model can learn from. Intelligent decision-making algorithms then convert those “features” into action. Together, they form the foundation of a financial infrastructure that is more inclusive, resilient, and capable of supporting sustainable economic growth.
At Mathesis Analytics, we turn information into action – helping financial institutions transform complex and frequently unstructured data into meaningful insights they can act on – helping financial institutions make sense of complex, fragmented data and lend confidently to the people and businesses driving Africa’s economy.
Winston Osuchukwu is the Founder and CEO of Mathesis Analytics Inc.


