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Inflation Rate to Further Drop to 16.13% on Base Effect

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Inflation Rate

By FSDH Research

We expect the May 2017 inflation rate (year-on-year) to drop to 16.13 percent from 17.24 percent recorded in the month of April 2017.

The drop is expected to come mainly as a result of base effect from the increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in May 2016 despite the elevated consumer prices recorded in May 2017.

The sharp increase in the prices of consumer goods in May 2017 show that inflationary pressure persists in Nigeria.

Based on the data release calendar on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website, we expect the NBS to release the inflation rate for the month of May 2017 on June 15, 2017.

The monthly Food Price Index (FPI) that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released today shows that the Index rebounded in May 2017 following three months of consecutive decline. The Index averaged 172.6 points, 2.19 percent higher than the revised value for April 2017, as all the sub-indices increased except sugar.

The FAO Dairy Price Index increased by 5.15 percent in May, as prices for all categories of dairy products were on the increase.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was up by 4.74 percent, primarily driven by increase in both palm and soy oil prices occasioned by the rising global imports demand, low inventories and robust consumption particularly in the United States. The prices of meat have continued to trend upward since the beginning of the year 2017. The FAO Meat Price Index was up 1.47 percent as prices for pig, bovine and ovine meat all increased, while those of poultry meat were stable.

The FAO Cereal Price Index was up by 1.40 percent, largely on account of the increase in the prices of wheat and rice.

Meanwhile, the price of maize was modest due to large global supply. On the flip side, the continued fall in the price of sugar due to the weak global import demand, improved supply conditions in the main sugar producing regions in Brazil and the sudden depreciation in currency of the Brazilian Real weighed on the sugar Index.

Hence, the FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 2.31 percent in May 2017 to a 13-month low.

Our analysis indicates that the value of the Naira appreciated at both the inter-bank and parallel market.

The Naira gained 0.15 percent and 3.66 percent to close at N305.40/$ and N382/$ at both the inter-bank and parallel market at the end of May 2017 respectively. The appreciation in the Naira is expected to have countered the effect of the rising prices of food at the international market to certain extent. This should lead to a moderation in the pass through effect of imported prices on consumer goods in Nigeria.

The prices of most of the food items that FSDH Research monitored in May 2017 increased substantially. The prices of tomatoes, Irish potatoes, yam, meat, rice and sweet potatoes were up by 88.16 percent, 36.8 percent, 32.42 percent, 4.76 percent, 2.54 percent and 0.6 percent respectively.

Meanwhile, the prices of onions, vegetable oil, beans, garri and fish were stable. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 2.5 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 240.28 points.

We also noticed increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between April 2017 and May 2017.

Our model indicates that the general price movements in the consumer goods and services in May 2017 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 230.30 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.78 percent.

We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in May 2017 would produce an inflation rate of 16.13 percent lower than the 17.24 percent recorded in April 2017.

Source: FSDH Research

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

PEBEC Blocks Introduction of New Policies by MDAs

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PEBEC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has directed Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to suspend the introduction of new policies and regulatory changes to prevent disruptions to businesses.

The directive was issued in a statement by PEBEC director-general, Mrs Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, on Monday in Abuja, noting that the move is part of the Federal Government’s broader effort to improve regulatory quality, ensure policy consistency, and strengthen Nigeria’s ease of doing business environment.

The council emphasised that the suspension will remain in place until all MDAs fully comply with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, which governs evidence-based policymaking across government institutions.

The council said the directive is aimed at ensuring that all government policies are backed by verifiable data and do not negatively impact businesses or investors.

“It is imperative to emphasise that no new reform or policy will be permitted to proceed without being grounded in clear, verifiable evidence,” said Mrs Mustapha-Audu.

“The framework provides the structured mechanism through which such evidence-based decisions can be rigorously developed, assessed, and validated.

“This directive is necessary to prevent policy shocks that may adversely affect businesses, investors, and citizens, as well as to eliminate policy inconsistencies and frequent reversals.”

She added that the government remains committed to working collaboratively with regulators and does not intend to embarrass any institution.

The Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, introduced in January 2025, is designed to improve transparency and ensure that policies undergo proper evaluation before implementation.

All MDAs are required to align new policies and amendments with the RIA framework before approval and rollout.

The framework has been circulated by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and is available on the PEBEC website.
MDAs are encouraged to seek technical support from the PEBEC Secretariat to ensure proper implementation.

Exceptions to the directive will only be granted in cases of urgent national interest, subject to appropriate approvals.

PEBEC noted that the framework will help institutionalise evidence-based policymaking, enhance transparency, and improve stakeholder confidence in government decisions.

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Economy

DMO Sells 3-Year FGN Savings Bond at 14.082% for April Batch

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FGN Savings Bond

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Subscription for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) savings bonds for April 2026 has opened, a circular from the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, confirmed.

The debt office is selling the retail debt instrument for this month in two tenors of two years and three years.

Offer for the savings bonds opened today and will close on Friday, April 10, 2026, a part of the disclosure stated.

The 2-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2028, is being sold at a coupon rate of 13.082 per cent per annum, while the 3-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2029, is being sold at a coupon rate of 14.082 per cent per annum.

The interests are paid every quarter, and the bullet repayment to subscribers on the maturity date.

The bonds are sold at N1,000 per unit, subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum subscription of N50 million.

Interested investors are required to reach out to the stockbroking firms appointed as distribution agents by the DMO via the agency’s website.

An FGN savings bond qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. It also qualifies as government securities within the meaning of the Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) for tax exemption for pension funds, amongst other investors, meaning it is tax-free.

It can be used as a liquid asset for liquidity ratio calculation for banks, and is listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to allow for easy exit (liquidation) before maturity by selling at the secondary market.

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Economy

Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Tensions Escalate Despite Talks

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Oil Prices fall

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices climbed on Monday’s short trade as the United States and Iran threatened more attacks, ​as the two countries are engaging in indirect talks that could lead to the de-escalation of hostilities.

Brent crude futures settled at $109.77 ‌a barrel after chalking up 74 cents or 0.68 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $112.40 after growing by 87 cents or 0.78 per cent.

The US and Iran received a framework from ​Pakistan to end hostilities, but this was rejected by Iran, especially the idea of immediately reopening the strait after President Donald Trump threatened to ⁠rain “hell” on the nation if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.

Iran said ​it had formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries.

The US is eyeing an agreement to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the shipping artery used by one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, but the strait, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi ​Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the U.S.-Israel attacks began on February 28.

Some vessels, however, including ​an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the strait since Thursday.

Meanwhile, major oil consumers, ​particularly in Asia, are conserving barrels or cutting consumption in response to the closure of the strait.

The Middle East supply disruptions have led refiners to seek alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the US and Britain’s North Sea.

Indian refiners have also postponed maintenance shutdowns of their units to meet local fuel demand.

On Sunday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to a modest rise ​of 206,000 barrels per day for May. However, this will only appear on paper as the disruption is limiting the ability of the top producers to add the needed output.

OPEC’s combined oil output losses for March were estimated at 7.2 million barrels daily. The biggest production cuts were made by Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, for a total OPEC output of 21.57 million barrels daily for March. This is the lowest OPEC production rate since June 2020.

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