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Economy

Oil Markets Drops Below $100 on New Trump Ceasefire

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market was down $100 per barrel ‌on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures lost $14.51 or 13.3 per cent to sell for $94.76 a barrel, ​while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by $17.16 or 15.2 per cent to $95.79 a barrel.

WTI has maintained its price premium over ⁠Brent in ​a reversal of typical price patterns due to its delivery ​contract being for May while Brent is for June, reflecting that barrels with an earlier delivery date are commanding a higher ​price.

President Trump’s turnaround came shortly before his deadline for Iran to ​open the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 per cent of the world’s oil transits, or ⁠face widespread attacks on its civilian infrastructure.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” he wrote on social ​media, after posting earlier on Tuesday that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if his demands were not ​met.

President Trump indicated that negotiations may be progressing toward a more durable agreement, citing a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis” for long-term peace.

Iran said it would halt its attacks if attacks against it stopped and that safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

The single most important factor to watch will be how many tankers cross the Strait of Hormuz with this new agreement in place. Already, another tanker operated by Malaysia’s Petronas and carrying Iraqi crude was allowed passage in the latest sign of a modest restoration of oil flows via the chokepoint.

Earlier in the week, two tankers carrying LPG for India were also allowed to pass the strait after Iran began making individual passage deals with foreign governments. The past few days have also seen three Oman-operated vessels clear the chokepoint, as well as a French container ship and a Japanese gas carrier. China, Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan are also among the countries that Iran is allowing to send ships via the waterway.

The US-Israeli war with Iran saw the steepest monthly oil price rise in history in March of more than 50 per cent.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

SEC Okays 50% Hike in X-Alert Fee for Capital Market Transactions

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a 50 per cent hike in the X-Alert service fee per transaction in the Nigerian capital market.

The X-Alert fee is a flat rate charged for sending real-time SMS/email notifications for transactions to investors from both buy and sell sides.

It was introduced by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) to replace percentage-based charges, aimed at increasing transparency and reducing total transaction costs for investors.

Investors were earlier charged N4 per SMS, but the country’s apex capital market regulator has approved a 50 per cent increase in X-Alert service fee, meaning the new rate is N6 per SMS.

Business Post gathered from one of the players in the ecosystem that the effective date for the new price was Thursday, March 26, 2026.

“We wish to inform you of a revision to the X-Alert (SMS) service fee applicable to transactions executed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

“Following approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the X-Alert fee has been reviewed upward from N4.00 to N6.00 per transaction,” the notice sighted by this newspaper read.

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Economy

World Bank Projects 4.2% Growth for Nigeria Amid Risks

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s economy is projected to remain resilient in the face of mounting global uncertainties, with the World Bank forecasting a 4.2 per cent growth rate in 2026.

However, the global lender has warned that rising fuel costs and persistent inflation, worsened by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could undermine household incomes and slow poverty reduction.

Speaking in Abuja, the bank’s lead economist for Nigeria, Mr Fiseha Haile, noted that while the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed up prices, overall economic activity has remained largely intact.

“Overall business activity has been expanding over the past few ​months, suggesting the impact on growth has been relatively contained. But the shock is still ⁠being felt through higher inflation,” Mr Haile said.

According to him, business activity has continued to expand in recent months, indicating that the broader impact on growth has been “relatively contained,” even as inflationary pressures intensify.

Nigeria’s inflation rate, though significantly reduced from around 33 per cent in December 2024 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026, remains elevated compared to regional peers.

“Inflation is still elevated and under ‌increasing ⁠pressure, and that poses risks to incomes and poverty reduction,” Mr Haile said.

The renewed surge in fuel prices, reportedly rising by over 50 per cent during the Iran conflict, has had a ripple effect on transportation, food, and production costs, amplifying the cost-of-living crisis.

The World Bank urged Nigerian authorities to adopt prudent macroeconomic measures, including tightening monetary policy, avoiding blanket subsidies, and saving windfalls from higher oil prices to strengthen fiscal buffers.

It also recommended reconsidering restrictions on fuel imports as a potential tool to ease inflationary pressures.

The economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu — including the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, and tax restructuring — were acknowledged as ambitious steps aimed at stabilising the economy.

These reforms have contributed to improved external buffers, with rising foreign exchange reserves and reduced volatility.

Additionally, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit stood at 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, while the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade.

Yet, the World Bank cautioned that tighter global financial conditions could still pose risks to capital inflows, borrowing costs, and remittances.

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Economy

FTSE Russell Restores Nigeria’s Frontier Market Status

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Frontier Market status of Nigeria, earlier yanked off by FTSE Russell, has now been fully restored.

The platform earlier reclassified the country’s status to Unclassified following several uncertainties and economic issues.

But after recommendations from its Equity Country Classification Advisory Committee and Policy Advisory Board, the Frontier Market status has been restored by FTSE Russell, marking a significant milestone in the country’s reintegration into global investment indices and signalling renewed opportunity for international investors.

However, this will take effect from September 2026, with the outcome announced as part of the March 2026 interim review and communicated to investors across key global markets.

The decision reflects sustained improvements in Nigeria’s market infrastructure, accessibility, and overall investability, driven in large part by enhancements to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) platform. These include strengthened trading systems, improved settlement processes, and increased transparency, all of which have contributed to a more efficient and accessible market environment for domestic and international investors.

According to the FTSE Quality of Markets assessment, Nigeria recorded Pass ratings across several core criteria, including regulatory oversight, capital repatriation, brokerage competitiveness, tax framework, and settlement efficiency, with a T+2 settlement cycle in operation. These gains reflect deliberate efforts to align market operations with global standards and improve the investor experience.

While acknowledging this progress, the review also highlighted areas for further development, including foreign exchange market depth, transaction cost efficiency, derivatives market availability, and certain custody and clearing mechanisms. Addressing these gaps will require continued coordination across regulators, market operators, and the broader financial ecosystem.

FTSE Russell noted that its country classification process combines detailed technical assessment with input from global institutional investors, ensuring that both structural conditions and real-world investor experience are reflected. The organisation also commended Nigerian market authorities for their continued engagement.

“This milestone reflects the strength of collaboration across Nigeria’s capital market ecosystem, but importantly, the deliberate efforts to strengthen the underlying market infrastructure that supports efficient trading, transparency, and investor access,” the chief executive of NGX Group Plc, Mr Temi Popoola, said.

“At NGX Group, we have remained focused on building a more resilient, accessible, and globally competitive platform, and this reclassification affirms the progress made.

“We will continue to work closely with regulators, market operators and stakeholders to deepen reforms, address identified gaps, and sustain momentum towards higher market classifications,” he added.

The Frontier Market designation is expected to enhance Nigeria’s visibility among global asset managers and index-tracking funds, potentially unlocking new capital inflows and broadening participation in the market.

As global investors increasingly prioritise markets with strong infrastructure, transparency, and accessibility, Nigeria’s re-entry into the FTSE Frontier Market universe underscores the critical role of market infrastructure in enabling capital formation and connecting local opportunities to global capital.

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