Economy
Christmas Comes Early for Nigerian ETF Investors
By Quantitative Financial Analytics
The Nigerian stock market has been showing great improvement since the beginning of May 2017 with most of the indices showing double digit returns.
The All-Share Index (ASI) now boasts of a YTD return of 27.02 percent, the NSE pension and Premium index are in an all-time high with returns of 49.65 percent and 35.4 percent respectively.
The Banking index is home with a YTD return of 51.92 percent and the NSE 30 index is smiling with 30.31 percent return, YTD.
It has never been this good, at least, in more recent years. The market rally has been propelled in part by the stability in the Naira exchange rate following the aggressiveness of the Central Bank and by the IMF’s statement that Nigeria is out of recession.
In addition to those, the recently released inflation report adds to the good news as well as Fitch’s “prophesy” on the improving foreign currency liquidity in Nigeria.
All those have combined to add a boost to the market. Believe it or not, the capture of Evans, the kidnap king pin has had its salutary effect on the market as it helps to douse fears about the security situation in Nigeria.
One investment type that has been riding the tide of this market rally is Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Prior to the month of May and in-fact for the greater part of last year, ETF holders were reeling in pain asking what hit them, but that story seems to be changing or has totally changed.
ETF prices rallied upward of 20 percent in the month of May alone wiping off almost all the prior months’ losses and drags.
Quantitative Financial Analytics has revealed that its May performance analysis indicates that the first 6 best performing funds in the month are all ETFs.
Specifically, Vetiva Banking ETF returned 26.41 percent, New Gold ETF, 20 percent, Vetiva Consumer Goods ETF, 17.05 percent while Stanbic IBTC 30 ETF came back with 16.91 percent return.
Vetiva 30 ETF and Stanbic IBTC Pension 40 ETF returned 14.45 and 13.08 percent respectively with Lotus Halal ETF returning 10.3 percent.
This performance has continued in the month of June with most ETFs recording upwards of 15 percent return so far in June.
Surprisingly, a deeper analysis indicates that the ETFs that are more highly correlated to the all share index did slightly worse than those with lower correlation.
This shows that the effect of the rally is more related to sectors of the economy than to the overall market performance.
While the banking sector ETFs with 0.67 correlation performed best, Stanbic IBTC 30 and Vetiva 30 ETF both with a 0.98 correlation did not do as good as the banking ETF.
Compared to safe-haven assets like bonds and treasuries, ETFs seem to be getting some reward for their additional inherent risks.
According to Quantitative Financial Analytics, equity based ETFs are doing far better than the newly introduced Vetiva S&P Sovereign Bond ETF, which is purely a fixed income based ETF.
However, the yield on 10-year Nigeria Treasuries rose by 8bp to 16.15 percent while 20-year yield contracted by 7bp to 16.01 percent in May.
If the good economic news about Nigeria continues, ETF investors may be celebrating Christmas earlier.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rebounded by 0.46 per cent on Tuesday despite continued weak investor sentiment due to low confidence in the market.
The gains recorded yesterday were largely impacted by significant trades in First Holdco by a major shareholder of the financial institution.
In terms of price gainers and losers, the bears won the race, as 28 equities closed in the red and 24 equities ended in the green, indicating a negative market breadth index.
Learn Africa grew by 10.00 per cent to N9.90, First Holdco expanded by 9.98 per cent to N72.15, Thomas Wyatt rose by 9.80 per cent to N2.69, RT Briscoe improved by 8.68 per cent to N13.15, and Transcorp Hotels increased by 8.37 per cent to N242.00.
Conversely, International Energy Insurance lost 9.86 per cent to close at N4.66, Legend Internet slipped by 9.18 per cent to N4.45, Fortis Global Insurance decreased by 7.67 per cent to N2.77, FTN Cocoa tumbled by 7.55 per cent to N8.21, and International Breweries dropped 4.79 per cent to trade at N13.90.
Business Post reports that First Holdco led the activity chart with a turnover of 326.9 million units worth N22.3 billion. GTCO traded 22.5 million units valued at N2.8 billion, Access Holdings transacted 18.5 million units for N461.6 million, FCMB sold 16.1 million units worth N166.8 million, and Zenith Bank exchanged 15.9 million units valued at N1.7 billion.
At the close of business, a total of 634.8 million stocks valued at N53.3 billion exchanged hands in 42,494 deals versus the 523.5 million stocks sold for N22.3 billion in 59,945 deals on Monday, indicating a shortfall in the number of deals by 29.11 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 21.26 per cent and 139.01 per cent, respectively.
The All-Share Index (ASI) was up during the trading day by 1,121.33 points to 242,870.44 points from 241,749.11 points, and the market capitalisation gained N719 billion to settle at N155.849 trillion compared with the previous day’s N155.130 trillion.
Market participants will be looking forward to the release of inflation data for June 2026 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today, Wednesday, July 15.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices climbed about 2 per cent to a one-month high on Tuesday after the US reportedly reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, which will reduce oil flows from the region through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose by $1.43 or 1.7 per cent to settle at $84.73 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.20 or 1.5 per cent to $79.34 a barrel.
Brent closed at its highest since June 12, and WTI at its highest since June 15. The closing price increase kept Brent in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time since March.
Before the Iran war, about 20 per cent of global oil supplies flowed through the strait.
US President Donald Trump stepped back from a proposal to charge a 20 per cent fee to guard the Strait of Hormuz as part of the conflict with Iran, saying he would instead seek investment deals with Gulf states.
US forces had carried out waves of attacks for the third night after Iran said it had closed the strait. President Trump on Monday reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed the fee, but hours before the fee was to take effect, the American President said the strait was open to all shipping traffic except that of Iran.
The renewed attacks have fed doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month will lead to a permanent halt in the war that has disrupted global energy supplies and stoked inflation fears.
Data showed that US consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June as energy prices retreated, but financial markets still expect an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday vowed to “do my job” if challenged by President Trump, who has said he wants the US central bank to cut interest rates and boost economic growth.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 564,000 barrels in the week ending July 10. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 399,000 barrels.
Although commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have been falling rapidly for three months now, shedding just over 60 million barrels over the last twelve weeks, US crude inventories are only down 9.2 million barrels so far this year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its report later on Wednesday.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The 700,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery has begun pricing fuel products for the local market in US Dollars amid crude supply challenges.
The company cited difficulties securing sufficient crude under the government’s Naira-for-crude programme and rising global oil prices as reasons for the development.
The Naira-for-crude programme, launched in October 2024, allowed domestic refiners to purchase crude in the local currency and reduced pressure on the foreign exchange market.
Mr Edwin Devakumar, the vice president of the Dangote Group, said the refinery had been absorbing a currency mismatch by selling products in Naira while sourcing crude in Dollars, but limited crude supply under the Naira-for-crude programme had undermined the arrangement’s viability.
Dangote has now set the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre, according to a pricing template circulated to marketers.
Although the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited increased Dangote’s allocation to seven cargoes in May from about five previously, the refiner has said it requires 13 to 15 cargoes a month and has been forced to import the remainder at international prices.
The decision could boost demand for Dollars among fuel marketers and make domestic fuel prices more sensitive to exchange-rate fluctuations.
Dangote Refinery is steadily ramping up operations toward full capacity after a gradual start since late 2023. In April alone, it received 21 separate crude cargoes, with all supplies coming from West Africa, mainly Nigerian crude grades, with one cargo from Cameroon; however, it boosted international cargoes in recent months.
The refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. In 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.
Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.
