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FBN Holdings: Lacklustre Performance Across Income Lines in Q3-17

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By Cordros Research

First Bank of Nigeria Holdings Plc (FBNH) released unaudited Q3-17 results yesterday, wherein gross earnings grew marginally by 1.85% q/q and 0.40% y/y (1.77% above our estimate), while PBT and PAT rose 28.01% q/q (71.19% y/y) and 24.44% q/q (145.47% y/y), respectively.

The growth in earnings is broadly supported by (1) growth in funding income (by 7.73% q/q and 17.43% y/y), which more than subdued the 6.57% and 37.91% y/y contraction in NIR (above our estimate by 13.30%) and (2) decline in opex by 3.51% q/q (+2.27% y/y) to miss our estimate by 4.14%.

The contraction in NIR stemmed from significant declines in dividend income (-50.62% q/q and +119.18% y/y), net gains on foreign exchange income (-72.86%q/q and -96.16% y/y), net gains on investment securities (-259.215 q/q and -270.29% y/y), net fee income (-7.95% q/q and -3.77% y/y), net insurance premium (-33.44% q/q and -23.79% y/y), and net gains on financial instruments (-37.77% q/q and -13.82% y/y). The cumulative impact more than offset the surge in other income (+233.80% q/q and +209.68% y/y).

The marginal growth in funding income (broadly in line with our estimate) reflects the lackluster performance on the interest income lines – investment securities (-1.515 q/q and +22.35% y/y), loans to banks (+3.95% q/q and -24.48% y/y), and loans to customers (+8.80% q/q and 12.23% y/y) – and interest expense lines – deposit to customers (-2.30% q/q and -2.74% y/y), deposit from banks (-17.26% q/q and +85.56% y/y) and borrowings (=8.43% q/q and -8.19% y/y).

Specifically, over 9M-17, gross earnings grew by 5.17%, in line with our estimate. While PBT declined 3.52%, PAT grew by 7.81%, both above our estimates of -6.82% and -1.85% respectively. The marginal growth in gross earnings over the period broadly reflects the impressive yield on interest earning assets (+210 bps to 12.28%) and consequently, robust interest income, which more than offset the significant decline in NIR (47.08%).

Over 9M-17, asset quality deterioration persisted. Despite 190 bps contraction in NPL to 20.10% compared to H1-17, annualized cost of risk remains elevated, rising 20 bps to 5.60% (annualized) following additional provisioning of N35.18 billion in Q3-17, which raised total loan loss provision during the period to N97.69 billion, albeit 14.93% lower compared to N114.72 billion in 9M-16.

However, noteworthy is the 90.08% y/y growth in net recoveries from loans previously written off (with an additional recovery of N1.32 billion over Q3) which we believe reflects the gradual improvements in the general commerce and manufacturing sectors following increased FX liquidity. FBNH reported CAR of 17.8% for the bank in FY-16 and 17.6% for H1-17. Relative to both periods, CAR contracted to 17.2% in 9M-17, though still largely above the required regulatory minimum of 16% for systemically important banks. The 40 bps contraction over Q3 leaves a lot to question.

Parsing through the balance sheet, FBNH’s loan book declined 7.52% y/y (albeit higher 2.27% relative to H1-17), while the holding of investment securities increased 6.43% y/y (+5.50% from H1-17 level). On the other hand, deposits declined marginally by 10.85 y/y and 1.94% over H1-17.

For the rest of 2017, we expect interest expense will remain elevated, as liquidity pressure (liquidity ratio was down to 47.4% in 9M-17, from 50.4% and 52.7% in H1-17 and FY-16, respectively) persists, and with the US Feds rate hike impact on the LIBOR further compounding the already stretched LCY interest rate.

Although we expect the re-pricing of assets, higher yields on investment securities, and FX interest income to support NIM, risk asset creation will remain subdued as the bank takes strategic steps to clean its loan portfolio.

On impairment charges, the bank’s restructuring of some FCY obligations reflected in the contraction in NPL during the period. We expect this to contract further, as the bulk of the upstream oil and gas reclassification reflects in the balance sheet, resulting in lower provisioning by FY-17 in line with our previous forecast.

Based on our last TP of N6.41, implying 4.23% upside from yesterday’s close price of N6.15, we have a HOLD recommendation on the stock. Our estimates are under review.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Dangote Refinery Denies Importing Petrol, Diesel into Nigeria

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has described reports making the rounds that it was importing finished petroleum products like premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, diesel, and others into Nigeria as false and misleading.

In a chat with newsmen on Wednesday, the company clarified that what it brought into the country were merely intermediate or semi‑processed materials, which it emphasized is a standard practice within the global refining industry.

Intermediate materials—such as naphtha, straight‑run gas oil, vacuum gas oil (VGO), reformate, alkylate and isomerate—serve as feedstock for additional refining into finished fuels like petrol and diesel, as well as petrochemicals.

The chief executive of the facility, Mr David Bird, told journalists in Lagos that as a state‑of‑the‑art and large‑scale merchant refinery, DPRP refines crude oil and processes intermediate feedstocks into premium petroleum products and petrochemicals that meet the highest international standards, noting that this practice does not amount to importing finished petroleum products.

Mr Bird highlighted that Dangote Refinery operates using a European and Asian merchant refinery model, which integrates advanced refining, blending and trading systems designed to meet modern quality and environmental benchmarks.

“DPRP produces high‑quality fuels aligned with international environmental and health standards. Our gasoline is lead‑free and MMT‑free with 50 parts per million sulphur, while our diesel meets ultra‑low sulphur specifications. These standards help reduce emissions, protect engines, and safeguard public health,” the chief executive stated.

Mr Bird reaffirmed that the Dangote Refinery supplies only fully refined, market‑ready products, adding that semi‑finished fuels are unsuitable for vehicles and are therefore not released into the Nigerian market. Samples of both intermediate feedstocks and fully refined products were displayed to journalists during the briefing.

He further noted that the refinery was established to end years of exposure to substandard fuel in Nigeria by providing products that meet stringent global standards, adding that DPRP’s products are now exported to international markets, highlighting their quality and competitiveness.

The refinery chief stressed the company’s commitment to transparency in its operations and engagements with regulators, urging the media to help properly educate the public on the clear distinction between intermediate products and finished fuel.

“It is unfortunate that some individuals are deliberately spreading misleading narratives about a refinery that has transformed Nigeria and the West African region from a dumping ground for substandard fuels into a hub for high‑quality products,” he said, adding that the refinery’s flexible design allows it to process a diverse mix of crude oils and intermediate feedstocks into premium finished fuels.

Mr Bird assured Nigerians of sustained product availability, noting that the refinery has contributed significantly to easing fuel scarcity, stabilising the naira, and reducing pressure on foreign exchange.

On his part, the Chief Brand and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Anthony Chiejina, urged journalists to be precise in their choice of terminology, warning that inaccurate reporting could misinform the public and create unnecessary panic.

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Economy

Nigeria to Overtake Algeria as Africa’s Third-Largest Economy in 2026—IMF

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Nigeria Economy challenges

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is projected to move from being the become the third-largest economy in Africa in 2026 from the fourth position it clinched last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), accessed via its datamapper, it was indicated that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices stood at about $285 billion in 2025, placing it behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.

South Africa topped the African ranking with a GDP of about $426 billion, followed by Egypt at $349 billion, and Algeria ranked third with $288 billion.

However, the IMF forecasts that Nigeria will overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output rebounds, driven by higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and the impact of ongoing economic reforms.

According to the IMF’s projections, Nigeria’s GDP is expected to rise to $334 billion, putting it ahead of Algeria ($284 billion) and making it Africa’s third-largest economy, behind South Africa ($443 billion) and Egypt ($399 billion).

The lender’s outlook reflects expectations that recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments, will support medium-term growth, despite short-term inflationary pressures.

Africa’s largest economy’s position has shifted in recent years amid currency devaluations, rebasing exercises and macroeconomic headwinds across major economies on the continent. Nigeria in 2024 lost its status as Africa’s largest economy and dropped to fourth place after a series of Naira devaluations and wider reforms.

However, these appear to have brought about macro reliefs in the near term. On January 19, the IMF reviewed its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate upward to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The Bretton Woods organisation revised the rate upward from its initial projection of 4.2 percent.

Prior to that, on January 13, the World Bank also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 percent forecast in June 2025.

The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms.

According to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, the country’s inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025, adding that foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $46 billion.

He added that GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion.

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Economy

Lafarge to Expand Sagamu, Ashaka Cement Plants to 5.5MT Per Annum

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the leading cement firms, Lafarge Africa Plc, has confirmed plans to expand its plants in Gombe and Ogun States to about 5.5 million metric tonnes per annum.

In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Wednesday, the company said it was strengthening local cement production with the expansion of its Sagamu Cement Plant in Ogun State and Ashaka Cement Plant in Gombe State.

It noted that the upon completion of the expansion projects, the production capacity of the Ashaka Cement in Gombe State would rise to 2 MT per annum, while the Sagamu facility would increase to 3.5 MT per annum.

The two new plants, the statement disclosed, would be dry plants with preheater kilns, vertical raw mills and roller presses for cement mills to make them energy efficient.

The disclosure signed by the company secretary, Adewunmi Alode, further revealed that the plants are expected to improve product availability and enhance Lafarge Africa’s ability to serve customers efficiently across key markets.

This expansion is coming after the announcement made last year that Huaxin Building Materials Group’s had acquired 83.81 per cent of Lafarge Africa and demonstrates their commitment to Nigeria’s infrastructural development.

The chief executive of Lafarge Africa, Mr Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, stated that the expansion projects reflect the company’s long-term confidence in Nigeria’s growth potential and are aimed at supporting Nigeria’s infrastructure and construction needs.

He explained that the project goes beyond capacity growth to deliver operational and sustainability benefits but also supports value creation for our customers and shareholders while contributing to economic activity and job creation across our host communities and the wider construction ecosystem.

“The expansion of our plants is a strategic investment that reinforces Lafarge Africa’s role in supporting national development. By increasing capacity at our flagship plants, we are strengthening our supply chain, improving our responsiveness to market demand, and positioning the business to better support critical sectors such as housing, commercial construction, and infrastructure.

“It enables us to integrate modern production technologies that enhance efficiency, reliability, and environmental performance, in line with our commitment to responsible operations,” Mr Alade-Akinyemi, stated.

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