Economy
Investors Eye Nigeria’s Multi-Billion Dollar Retail Market
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The convergence of AI, tech, and data on Nigeria’s multi-billion dollar plus retail market will be a strategic focus to local and international developers, investors and retailers at the 4th annual West Africa Property Investment Summit taking place on November 15 and 16, 2018 in Lagos.
Considered one of the world’s most significant and accessible investment opportunities, the opportunity in the country has long whet the appetites of the world’s capital movers; however, for many, the opportunity has been missed or misjudged to a lack of relevant, actionable and useful data.
One of the emerging thought leaders in the field is Ali Djire, the country head of Fraym, who believes that embracing a data-driven approach to retail will prevent further Nakumatt styled retail implosions. In a market under pressure with retailers struggling with underperforming new locations due to steep competition and a lack of critical consumer mix, access to data is increasingly transforming the fortunes of companies in the sector.
Says Djire, “The need for a data-driven approach is becoming an imperative for retailers to not only inform what products to carry on the shelf, but also to get unprecedented insights into where to locate their stores, how to price based on ability to pay, and how to respond to competition.”
According to Djire, retail currently accounts for 16% of the Nigerian GDP and is viewed by many as a new frontier of growth for local and international investors.
A view which is shared by Jan Van Zyl, head of property development for leading pan-Africa real estate development fund, Novare Equity Partners.
“Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa. Therefore, you cannot brand yourself as a Sub-Saharan Fund and not have a presence in Nigeria.” Adding that the fund is also looking at options in Ghana and Cote D’Ivoire.
While the scale of the opportunity in Nigeria has attracted many entrants over the past decade, experienced investors and developers understand that the formal retail market is limited and dynamic that can grow exponentially.
As Van Zyl explains, “We believe that we are at the right place, at the right time, and we have invested in four shopping centres in Nigeria since 2010 with a book value in excess of $300 million.”
As one of Africa’s bullish international funds in real estate on the continent, the pan-Africa fund is in the country for the long-term. However, while the recovery over the last 12 months has been slow, Van Zyl argues that this is not a Nigerian, but an emerging market phenomenon.
“Combined with elections in February 2019, we find that many potential new entrants are waiting on the sidelines until the uncertainty surrounding an election period has settled. It is important to note that, such a cycle is not Nigeria specific, but is experienced in most emerging markets throughout Africa and other continents.” However, he does note that there has been a trend of decreasing the size of future shopping centre developments in the current market, which is one way in which the market has recalibrated to cope with market relating to the recession.
For Kfir Rusin, the Managing Director of the WAPI Summit, the advent of data and new technologies are critical to quickening the somewhat slow pace of recovery in the retail sector post-recession.
“As a pioneer in their field, Fraym’s use of Geospatial data, AI and Machine Learning technologies can provide actionable intelligence on communities down to 1 square kilometre across the country. This unique and relevant data has the potential to be transformative catalyst of growth for the retail sector.”
With such useful smart data increasingly, many large market layers are actively recalibrating their approach. As Djire reveals, “We are actively working with global investment players, development organisations, as well as local companies, to get actionable market insights. Through our data, we are seeing early signs of companies leveraging Fraym’s geospatial data platform to streamline their operations and retail strategy. We see a growing need for actionable data for companies to be able to make effective decisions.”
As Rusin says, “This year’s West Africa Property Investments (WAPI) Summit will provide a platform for the traditional retail sector to network and realise the real-world benefits of how relevant data and tech is essential to growing the formal retail sector.”
For Djire, WAPI is a platform for engagement. As he says, “WAPI is the platform where the message of a data approach in retail could gain grounds. There is a unique opportunity to engage directly with decision-makers, demystify the concept of [geospatial] data, walk them through the idea of a data approach and how it could affect their business and bottom line. More importantly, it’s an opportunity to hear from them about the ways they think about the market, their business, and their consumers, to ensure that we’re all on the same wavelength.”
Economy
Dangote Refinery Denies Importing Petrol, Diesel into Nigeria
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has described reports making the rounds that it was importing finished petroleum products like premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, diesel, and others into Nigeria as false and misleading.
In a chat with newsmen on Wednesday, the company clarified that what it brought into the country were merely intermediate or semi‑processed materials, which it emphasized is a standard practice within the global refining industry.
Intermediate materials—such as naphtha, straight‑run gas oil, vacuum gas oil (VGO), reformate, alkylate and isomerate—serve as feedstock for additional refining into finished fuels like petrol and diesel, as well as petrochemicals.
The chief executive of the facility, Mr David Bird, told journalists in Lagos that as a state‑of‑the‑art and large‑scale merchant refinery, DPRP refines crude oil and processes intermediate feedstocks into premium petroleum products and petrochemicals that meet the highest international standards, noting that this practice does not amount to importing finished petroleum products.
Mr Bird highlighted that Dangote Refinery operates using a European and Asian merchant refinery model, which integrates advanced refining, blending and trading systems designed to meet modern quality and environmental benchmarks.
“DPRP produces high‑quality fuels aligned with international environmental and health standards. Our gasoline is lead‑free and MMT‑free with 50 parts per million sulphur, while our diesel meets ultra‑low sulphur specifications. These standards help reduce emissions, protect engines, and safeguard public health,” the chief executive stated.
Mr Bird reaffirmed that the Dangote Refinery supplies only fully refined, market‑ready products, adding that semi‑finished fuels are unsuitable for vehicles and are therefore not released into the Nigerian market. Samples of both intermediate feedstocks and fully refined products were displayed to journalists during the briefing.
He further noted that the refinery was established to end years of exposure to substandard fuel in Nigeria by providing products that meet stringent global standards, adding that DPRP’s products are now exported to international markets, highlighting their quality and competitiveness.
The refinery chief stressed the company’s commitment to transparency in its operations and engagements with regulators, urging the media to help properly educate the public on the clear distinction between intermediate products and finished fuel.
“It is unfortunate that some individuals are deliberately spreading misleading narratives about a refinery that has transformed Nigeria and the West African region from a dumping ground for substandard fuels into a hub for high‑quality products,” he said, adding that the refinery’s flexible design allows it to process a diverse mix of crude oils and intermediate feedstocks into premium finished fuels.
Mr Bird assured Nigerians of sustained product availability, noting that the refinery has contributed significantly to easing fuel scarcity, stabilising the naira, and reducing pressure on foreign exchange.
On his part, the Chief Brand and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Anthony Chiejina, urged journalists to be precise in their choice of terminology, warning that inaccurate reporting could misinform the public and create unnecessary panic.
Economy
Nigeria to Overtake Algeria as Africa’s Third-Largest Economy in 2026—IMF
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria is projected to move from being the become the third-largest economy in Africa in 2026 from the fourth position it clinched last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), accessed via its datamapper, it was indicated that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices stood at about $285 billion in 2025, placing it behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.
South Africa topped the African ranking with a GDP of about $426 billion, followed by Egypt at $349 billion, and Algeria ranked third with $288 billion.
However, the IMF forecasts that Nigeria will overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output rebounds, driven by higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and the impact of ongoing economic reforms.
According to the IMF’s projections, Nigeria’s GDP is expected to rise to $334 billion, putting it ahead of Algeria ($284 billion) and making it Africa’s third-largest economy, behind South Africa ($443 billion) and Egypt ($399 billion).
The lender’s outlook reflects expectations that recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments, will support medium-term growth, despite short-term inflationary pressures.
Africa’s largest economy’s position has shifted in recent years amid currency devaluations, rebasing exercises and macroeconomic headwinds across major economies on the continent. Nigeria in 2024 lost its status as Africa’s largest economy and dropped to fourth place after a series of Naira devaluations and wider reforms.
However, these appear to have brought about macro reliefs in the near term. On January 19, the IMF reviewed its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate upward to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The Bretton Woods organisation revised the rate upward from its initial projection of 4.2 percent.
Prior to that, on January 13, the World Bank also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 percent forecast in June 2025.
The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms.
According to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, the country’s inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025, adding that foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $46 billion.
He added that GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion.
Economy
Lafarge to Expand Sagamu, Ashaka Cement Plants to 5.5MT Per Annum
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the leading cement firms, Lafarge Africa Plc, has confirmed plans to expand its plants in Gombe and Ogun States to about 5.5 million metric tonnes per annum.
In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Wednesday, the company said it was strengthening local cement production with the expansion of its Sagamu Cement Plant in Ogun State and Ashaka Cement Plant in Gombe State.
It noted that the upon completion of the expansion projects, the production capacity of the Ashaka Cement in Gombe State would rise to 2 MT per annum, while the Sagamu facility would increase to 3.5 MT per annum.
The two new plants, the statement disclosed, would be dry plants with preheater kilns, vertical raw mills and roller presses for cement mills to make them energy efficient.
The disclosure signed by the company secretary, Adewunmi Alode, further revealed that the plants are expected to improve product availability and enhance Lafarge Africa’s ability to serve customers efficiently across key markets.
This expansion is coming after the announcement made last year that Huaxin Building Materials Group’s had acquired 83.81 per cent of Lafarge Africa and demonstrates their commitment to Nigeria’s infrastructural development.
The chief executive of Lafarge Africa, Mr Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, stated that the expansion projects reflect the company’s long-term confidence in Nigeria’s growth potential and are aimed at supporting Nigeria’s infrastructure and construction needs.
He explained that the project goes beyond capacity growth to deliver operational and sustainability benefits but also supports value creation for our customers and shareholders while contributing to economic activity and job creation across our host communities and the wider construction ecosystem.
“The expansion of our plants is a strategic investment that reinforces Lafarge Africa’s role in supporting national development. By increasing capacity at our flagship plants, we are strengthening our supply chain, improving our responsiveness to market demand, and positioning the business to better support critical sectors such as housing, commercial construction, and infrastructure.
“It enables us to integrate modern production technologies that enhance efficiency, reliability, and environmental performance, in line with our commitment to responsible operations,” Mr Alade-Akinyemi, stated.
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