Economy
Equities Market May Remain Bearish After 2019 Elections
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian stock market has not been having it good since the January bull run. The local bourse, which gained over 40 percent last year, has lost 16.68 percent in 2018, which has only 45 days to wrap up.
The downtrend has mainly been attributed to uncertainty over the 2019 general elections in the country, but analysts at Cordros Research fear that the market may remain weak after the much-awaited polls.
“In our view, without any meaningful positive trigger, investors may see the lukewarm market performance persist even after the general election, come next year,” Cordros Research stated in one of its latest report obtained by Business Post.
The firm said notably, marginally tightened global liquidity conditions, together with the rhetoric of trade protectionism, and the economic crises in Argentina and Turkey drove negative sentiments across emerging and frontier markets, including Nigeria, which was not spared in the selloffs “largely induced by external factors.”
Furthermore, disappointing growth data, together with unimpressive corporate earnings further weakened appetite for Naira risk assets, the report said.
“Oil prices may have remained firm, but it would appear that external concerns weigh stronger on sentiments. To add, MTN’s listing, which would have had a bit of a positive impact, was soured by the management-CBN spat. Even as the unflinching sell-offs made valuations somewhat compelling, investors remain unconvinced,” the report added.
“Certainly, election period is imminent and the polity is gradually heating up. Nonetheless, we believe they are yet to strongly impact market sentiments thus far this year and will remain so over November and December.
“Undeniably, election-related risk-off sentiments will be stronger from January 2019, however, we believe that the external events and the domestic macro fundamental issues highlighted above will remain the key drivers of market movement.
“It is therefore noteworthy that investors reassess the impression that local equities have been held down largely by election risk, thus implying imminent recovery post polls next year,” Cordros Research noted.
“To underscore why this matter, we observed the performance of the local market in the last two election years and found that post-election gains were sharp, albeit short-lived.
“In 2015, the market was thrilled by the news of the victory of the opposition, with the index gaining 14 percent between April and May, before crashing in subsequent months.
“In the same vein, Nigeria’s equities market warmly welcomed the election of President Jonathan in 2011 as NSEASI returned 5.0 percent between April and May of that year, and went south thereafter,” the report said.
It stressed that, “Clearly, on both occasions, the failure of the economic managers to meet market expectations tanked the post-election rallies. We suggest investors take a cue from the experiences when framing investment strategies ahead of next year.”
“In our view, barring less hawkish monetary policy rhetoric across developed economies, better global trade talks, and improved economic landscape across emerging economies, most of which are unlikely in the near term, and from which NSEASI will certainly benefit, post-election activities in the local market will follow the historical pattern, and more so, in the absence of market-friendly policy changes/announcements,” the report concluded.
Economy
Nigeria Accesses $1.5bn from UAE Lender’s $5bn Swap Deal
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has received the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender.
According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, the federal government drew about $1.5 billion over the past two weeks through a Total Return Swap (TRS) transaction with the lender.
The report stated that Nigeria will provide naira-denominated securities valued at 133.3 per cent of the loan amount as collateral for the transaction, while international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the risks associated with such derivative-based financing structures.
The financing is expected to support the government’s debt management strategy by replacing more expensive borrowings while helping finance the country’s fiscal deficit.
The first tranche is priced at 395 basis points above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), rising to SOFR plus 400 basis points thereafter.
The transaction further expands Nigeria’s financial relationship with First Abu Dhabi Bank, which had earlier provided about $1.2 billion to support the construction of a section of the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.
The swap deal has come with much scrutiny from critics and international organisations. Recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after a consultation visit, warned Nigeria against the deal, noting that such transactions are often opaque and complex.
“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.
Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.
The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.
Economy
Nigeria Needs More Taxpayers, Not Higher Taxes—Oyedele
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, yesterday clarified that the federal government is not increasing taxes but making efforts to raise the tax net.
Mr Oyedele made this remark on Thursday while receiving a delegation from the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN) at his office in Abuja.
He hailed the institute for introducing a National Tax Awareness Day and for supporting the current tax reforms of the federal government.
The minister charged the institute to double its effort in public enlightenment, stressing that many Nigerians still view taxation as a means for the government to take money from citizens.
He reiterated that the priority of the government is not to increase tax rates but to broaden the tax base by ensuring that all eligible taxpayers meet their obligations.
“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes.
“It is not about increasing taxes but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he said.
Nigeria is challenged by the inability to generate adequate revenue from taxation despite ongoing reforms, stressing that a significant number of eligible taxpayers have yet to fulfil their civic obligations.
He said the challenge facing the country was not necessarily about raising tax rates but ensuring that individuals and businesses that ought to pay taxes do so in a fair and transparent system.
The minister also commended the institute for supporting the federal government’s tax reform agenda and promoting public understanding of taxation, but urged it to intensify its advocacy efforts, noting that many Nigerians still harbour misconceptions about taxation.
According to him, many citizens continue to view taxation merely as a tool for the government to take money from the people rather than as a critical instrument for national development.
“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes. It is not about increasing taxes, but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he added.
Mr Oyedele stressed that if Nigeria succeeds in building an efficient and equitable tax system, the impact on infrastructure, public services and economic development would be transformative, challenging the institute to introduce annual awards for the country’s most tax-compliant individuals and organisations as a means of encouraging voluntary compliance and recognising responsible taxpayers.
Economy
Akara, Kulikuli, Roasted Corn Business Not Capital Intensive—Remi Tinubu
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.
Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.
She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.
“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.
She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”
“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.
“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.
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