Economy
Nigeria’s Consumer Confidence Index Drops One Point
A new report by Nielsen Africa has showed that Nigeria’s latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the fourth quarter of 2018 marginally dropped one point to 117, while Ghana lost five points to fall 108, presenting a diverse picture of consumer sentiment across West Africa.
In terms of Nigeria’s performance, Nielsen Nigeria MD, Mr Ged Nooy, stated that, “In Q4’18, the consumer outlook in Nigeria dipped marginally versus the previous quarter.
“Continued inflationary pressures and uncertainties around the elections could have impacted consumer sentiment, leading to a one point drop in the consumer confidence index.
“However, despite the drop, consumers showed increased propensity towards stocking up on the necessities as a result of year end festivities.”
When it comes to job prospects, 62 percent Nigerians view their prospects as excellent or good (a 6 point increase from the previous quarter) and 31 percent view them as not so good or bad.
In terms of the state of their personal finances over the next 12 months, the same amount as the previous quarter (79 percent) say excellent or good.
In addition, the number of Nigerian consumers who feel now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they need or want has increased three points to 46 percent.
Looking at whether Nigerians have spare cash, exactly half (50 percent) say yes, down five points from the previous quarter. In terms of what their spending priorities are once they meet their essential living expenses, the highest number of consumers (73 percent) would put their spare cash into savings, followed by 71 percent on home improvements and 68 percent who would invest in stocks and mutual funds.
While Nigeria showed a slight decline in confidence; Ghana’s CCI figure dropped a substantial five points to 108.
Commenting on the reasons for this Nielsen Market Lead for West Africa Emerging Markets Yannick Nkembe said, “The continued depreciation of the Cedi, the collapse of certain banks leading to job losses, and the high cost of credit and an inability to access credit have led to a drop in consumer sentiment in Ghana”.
This decline in sentiment is clearly reflected in Ghanaian consumers’ immediate-spending intentions. Only 40% Ghanaians say now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they want or need, a substantial eight point drop compared to the previous quarter.
Negative sentiment is also reflected in Ghanaian’s job prospects. Only 58 percent Ghanaians view their job prospects as excellent or good, experiencing a six point drop compared to the previous quarter.
Sentiment around the state of personal finances has also taken a slight hit with Ghanaians who think the state of their personal finances would be excellent or good over the next year having dropped nine points from the previous quarter to 67 percent. This in comparison to 31 percent who think that the state of their personal finances is not so good or bad, which represents a substantial 13 percent increase in this negative sentiment.
Looking at whether Ghanaians have spare cash to spend, 42 percent said yes, versus 53 percent in the previous quarter.
In terms of their spending priorities once they meet their essential living expenses, the highest number of consumers (77 percent) would put their spare cash into savings and the same number will spend on home improvements, while 70 percent said they would invest in shares/mutual funds.
Elaborating on these results, Nkembe noted that, “Consumer confidence in West Africa declined in the last quarter of 2018. However, it still falls on the positive side of the spectrum and we hope to see a rebound in confidence levels in 2019.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira further depreciated against the United States Dollar by N3.46 or 0.25 per cent to N1,362.21/$1 from N1,358.75/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 5.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window during the session by N4.47 to trade at N1,823.59/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,828.06/£1, and gained N7.00 against the Euro to sell at N1,574.58/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,581.58/€1.
For another trading session, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the Dollar in the parallel market and the GTBank forex counter on Friday at N1,375/$1 and N1,372/$1, respectively.
The Naira is expected to remain strong in the near term, backed by a rise in external reserves, which are nearing $50 billion, enhancing analysts’ confidence about its outlook in the second half of 2026.
Heightened global uncertainty has reduced the incentive for importers and corporates to demand FX, as cautious trade weighs on import needs. Analysts estimate a $40 billion net FX position for the year, a projection anchored in oil windfall gains.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices remained depressed following a strong US jobs report that spurred markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates, sending Treasury yields and the dollar up while hammering stocks, especially AI-related names. Crypto markets saw heavy leverage washouts with about $1.6 billion in positions liquidated over 24 hours.
Ethereum (ETH) gave up 4.9 per cent to trade at $1,584.68, Solana (SOL) fell by 3.3 per cent to $63.22, Bitcoin (BTC) crashed by 1.9 per cent to $61,333.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 1.8 per cent to $0.0821, and Ripple (XRP) moderated by 1.8 per cent to $1.09.
Further, TRON (TRX) dropped 1.6 per cent to sell at $0.3197, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.0 per cent to $581.18, and Cardano (ADA) declined by 0.4 per cent to $0.1589, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) gained 0.07 to sell at $0.9997, and US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $0.9998.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices fell on Friday as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the United States and Iran was growing less likely.
The price of Brent crude futures settled at $93.09 a barrel, down $1.94 or 2.04 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $90.54 a barrel, down $2.50 or 2.69 per cent.
President Donald Trump said the US will win the conflict with Iran either “militarily or on paper,” referring to the fitful negotiations with the Iranian government, and he suggested he could meet with Iran’s reclusive supreme leader “if it was to make a deal.”
He also said he had no desire to meet with Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen since the outbreak of violence on February 28 and was reportedly seriously injured in US-Israeli air strikes. He, however, added that if the two sides reached a deal, it was possible the two leaders would meet.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected on Thursday a US-brokered agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government to halt the fighting. Iran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a condition for any peace deal with America.
Oman said operations at Mina al Fahal port were unaffected after it was reported that oil loading had been suspended following an explosion near its mooring berths. Oman exports 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day of crude from the terminal.
As the US-Iran war peace talks dragged on, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil passes, remained limited. Gains have been capped by oil inventories lasting longer than expected, rerouted exports and falling demand.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC) is sticking to its oil demand growth forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day for this year, its Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said, despite the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC crude output fell last month, hitting its lowest level in decades as the US blockade of Iran and disruption in the Persian Gulf continued to curb production.
Output from its 11 current members dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million a day in May, with Iran accounting for more than half of the decline, according to a Bloomberg survey. That was the lowest in at least 37 years. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates, which left the organisation last month after six decades.
Key members of the OPEC+ are expected to nudge up targets by a modest 188,000 barrels again in July during a video conference on Sunday. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its allies are due to hold that day.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude production under the collective Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) fell in May to its lowest level in at least 37 years as the blockade of Iran by the United States and disruptions in the Persian Gulf, continued to limit output.
According to a Bloomberg survey released on Friday, output from the organisation’s 11 current members, including Nigeria, dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million barrels per day last month.
Iran accounted for more than half of the decline. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which departed the cartel last month after six decades of membership.
War between a US-Israeli alliance and Iran has reduced oil supplies from the Middle East, largely closing the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have been forced to cut crude production. Iranian shipments face additional pressure following a US blockade of its ports imposed in mid-April.
Iranian output fell by 710,000 barrels per day to a five-year low of 2.34 million barrels per day in May, the survey showed. Central Command reported that US forces have redirected 127 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.
Kuwait recorded the second-largest decline last month, with production falling by 310,000 barrels per day to 490,000 barrels per day, less than one-fifth of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, saw output decrease by 240,000 barrels per day to 6.57 million barrels per day.
The production reductions have not prevented OPEC and its allies from raising quotas over recent months, continuing a year-long process of restoring output halted several years ago.
This comes ahead of a meeting scheduled to be held on Sunday, June 7, where a sub-group of seven members is expected to increase targets by 188,000 barrels again in July. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its partners plan to hold that day.
Delegates indicated the alliance has plans for two additional monthly quota increases in August and September. UAE output rose by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.44 million barrels per day in May, according to the survey.
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