Economy
Potential Yield Curve Inversion Weigh on US Stocks
By Investors Hub
The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a lower opening on Tuesday, with stocks likely to see further downside following the sell-off seen in the previous session.
The downward momentum on Wall Street comes amid continued concerns about the escalating U.S.-China trade war and rising tensions in Hong Kong.
The geopolitical concerns have led traders to seek safe haven assets such as U.S treasuries, resulting in a slump in U.S. bond yields.
The yield on the benchmark ten-year note is threatening to drop below the yield on the two-year note, which is widely seen as indicator of an impending recession.
Stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the trading session on Monday, adding to the losses posted last week. The major averages came under pressure early in the session and slid more firmly into negative territory as the day progressed.
While the major averages climbed off their worst levels going into the close, they still posted steep losses on the day. The Dow plunged 391.00 points or 1.5 percent to 25,896.44, the Nasdaq tumbled 95.73 points or 1.2 percent to 7,863.41 and the S&P 500 slumped 35.96 points or 1.2 percent to 2,882.69.
The sell-off on Wall Street came amid worries about a prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China after President Donald Trump recently indicated he feels no sense of urgency to resolve the dispute.
Trump told reporters last Friday that he is “not ready to make a deal” with China and suggested the U.S. could skip the next round of trade talks in September.
“We’ll see whether or not we keep our meeting in September. If we do, that’s fine. If we don’t, that’s fine,” Trump said. “But it’s time that somebody does what we’re doing.”
Trump denied that Americans are paying the price for his trade war with China, arguing that Beijing’s efforts to depress their currency prove that the Chinese are “paying for it.”
“I want them to do well. But as of this moment, they’re having the worst year that they’ve had in many, many years ? in decades,” he added. “And really, we’re just bringing the system back into order.”
Concerns about the impact of increasingly violent protests in Hong Kong also weighed on stocks, with the Hong Kong International Airport canceling all departing flights due to the disruption caused by protesters.
The pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong have intensified following allegations of unnecessary police violence on Sunday.
The geopolitical concerns increased the appeal of safe haven assets like bonds, resulting in a steep drop in U.S. treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark ten-year note tumbled to its lowest closing level in almost three years.
Steel stocks turned in some of the market’s worst performances on the day amid concerns about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war.
Reflecting the weakness in the sector, the NYSE Arca Steel Index plunged by 3.1 percent to its lowest closing level since November of 2016.
The drop in bond yields also contributed to considerable weakness among financial stocks, with the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index and the KBW Bank Index slumping by 2.2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.
Transportation, biotechnology, and chemical stocks also saw significant weakness, moving lower along with most of the other major sectors.
Economy
Naira Loses Against Dollar Official, Black Markets
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira opened the new trading week on a negative note on Monday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) and the black market.
At the parallel market, the Nigerian currency weakened against the US Dollar by N5 to sell for N1,380/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,375/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it shed N1 to trade at N1,373/$1 versus N1,372/$1.
At the official market, it lost 63 Kobo or 0.05 per cent against the Dollar during the session to close at N1,362.84/$1, in contrast to last Friday’s value of N1,362.21/$1.
However, the Nigerian Naira gained N2.30 against the Pound Sterling at the spot market yesterday, quoting at N1,821.29/£1 compared with the previous rate of N1,823.59/£1, and improved against the Euro by 23 Kobo to settle at N1,574.35/€1 versus N1,574.58/€1.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that interbank forex turnover increased to $92.248 million across 90 deals, from $73.565 million last Friday.
On the policy front, participants believed that the application of the fourth edition of the Foreign Exchange Manual of the central bank, which introduces updated guidelines for foreign exchange transactions and tightening compliance requirements for authorised dealers and market participants, will enhance market flexibility and ease previous restrictions.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market snapped from recent declines, jolted by Strategy’s purchase of 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC. The company raised $181 million through common stock sales, using the proceeds to fund the bitcoin purchase and increase its cash reserves to $1 billion, pushing the price of the coin higher by 3.2 per cent to $63,731.69.
Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 8.4 per cent to $0.1738, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 5.2 per cent to $1,711.54, Solana (SOL) expanded by 5.1 per cent to $67.82, and Ripple (XRP) improved by 4.9 per cent to $1.18.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 4.3 per cent to $0.0873, Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 2.7 per cent to $609.50, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.7 per cent to $0.3274, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $0.9997 and $0.9998, respectively.
Economy
Economist Tasks FG to Explore Alternative Funding Sources
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The federal government has been advised to consider exploring other funding sources to finance its budget deficits.
Speaking with Punch recently, the chief executive of CSA Advisory, Mr Aliyu Ilias, said the current appetite for borrowing by the government cannot be sustained because it elevates debt-servicing costs.
The economist suggested the sale of some public assets and the involvement of the private sector in infrastructure financing for economic growth.
According to him, running to the debt markets to raise funds for the government is not the best route to take, as the reliance on borrowing always leads to higher debt-servicing obligations.
“The more you borrow, the more you are also incurring more debt services,” he said, tasking the government to also capitalise on increased oil revenues stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“The government can actually sell off some of their assets to raise more money. The government can also, if you look at the revenue we are getting from oil, it’s getting more, especially with this war. It’s another opportunity for us to actually not borrow again,” Mr Ilias submitted.
He also pointed to ongoing tax reforms as another avenue to improve government finances and narrow the fiscal gap.
“The government can also look at tax reform. The fact is that the government does not have money. The only chance for getting more money is to address the financial deficit,” he added.
Economy
Crude Oil Gains Over $1 Despite Easing Iran-Israel Tensions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil was up by $1 on Monday as Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an appeal from US President Donald Trump.
Brent crude futures gained $1.16 or 1.3 per cent to trade at $94.25 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 76 cents or 0.8 per cent to $91.30 per barrel.
Iran’s military said Monday it halted attacks on Israel after the two countries exchanged their most intense strikes in months, further straining an already shaky ceasefire as well as the US-Israeli relationship. Iran, however, said it would resume strikes if Israel continued to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel also halted attacks on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, stopping short of acknowledging a ceasefire that US President Donald Trump said the countries were aiming for.
President Trump said earlier that the US blockade, which was introduced in April, would remain in place “in full force” until a final peace agreement between the two warring nations is reached.
Prices gained more than 5 per cent earlier on Monday after renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and attacks on Lebanon had reduced hopes of an imminent end to the wider war.
Market analysts noted that because of the strikes, investors were concerned that flows through the Strait of Hormuz might remain restricted for longer. Roughly a fifth of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway before US-Israeli airstrikes at the end of February unleashed the latest escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed its military attacks on Iran, adding to concerns about global shipping and energy flows.
In the face of the supply crisis, a sub-group under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday agreed on its fourth oil output target increase in four months. The seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July, the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 barrels per day in May and April to take into account the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
On paper, the sub-group has increased its output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day, but in reality, the group’s production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million barrels per day in April compared with 42.77 million barrels per day in February.
Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in July for a second month.
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