Economy
Oil Demand Growth to Lower Nigeria’s Crude Sales by 43.2%–OPEC
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria will experience a 43.2 percent drop in crude sales as oil demand is expected to shift from highly industrialized economies to India and China leading to the growth in oil consumption till 2040.
To avoid this, Nigeria may need to retain India, its largest destination, as one of its clienteles if it is to remain fiscally viable and grow its economy in the short-term.
The world’s second most populous nation became Nigeria’s biggest exporter replacing the United States in 2013 after high crude demand saw it turn its attention to shale production.
This development followed the release of its 2019 World Oil Outlook (WOO), Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed this in its annual report released on Tuesday in Vienna, Austria.
The oil producers’ cartel said that the last 12 months had been challenging for energy markets as global tension from the US-China trade war, rising supply, and dwindling demand for oil.
The report stated that developing and emerging economies would play a huge role in the oil market outlook, with that India through its growing middle-class consumers will need an additional 5.4 million barrels per day to its current usage while China will increase its current quota by 4.4 million barrels.
“India is projected to be the country with the fastest oil demand growth and the largest additional demand,’’ the report stated.
Further, North America, Western Europe, Japan, South Korea and Oceania will consume 9.6 million barrels per day less according to the long term forecast.
Secretary-General of OPEC, Mr Mohammad Barkindo, said its own production of crude oil and other liquids is expected to decline over the next five years, falling to 32.8 million barrels in 2024 from 35 million barrels per day on record in 2019.
The 14 nations group also hopes that the its members will experience a declining demand for their crude oil products until around 2025 when US crude oil output is envisioned to start falling.
“We have already started seeing a deceleration of growth in the United States. The shale patch in the U.S. is facing a tremendous amount of headwinds as a result of the unprecedented growth that we have seen in the last couple of years,” Mr Barkindo said.
OPEC expects supply from non-OPEC producers to hit a high of 72.6 million barrels per day in 2026 and fall to 66.4 million barrels per day by 2040.
“In the long term, it is OPEC that will be expected to meet the majority of oil demand requirements,” Mr Barkindo said.
As at the time of this report, Brent crude was trading 19 cents down at $62.77 per barrel and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading up by 8 cents at $57.31 after recording earlier drops on Wednesday morning.
Economy
Naira Further Falls to N1.355/$1 at Official FX Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The woes of the Nigerian Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) further continued on Tuesday, February 24.
During the session, the domestic currency weakened against the United States Dollar by N6.13 or 0.45 per cent to N1,355.37/$1 from the N1,349.24/$1 it was traded in the previous trading day.
The local currency also moved southwards on Tuesday in the same market window against the Pound Sterling after it lost N6.39 to trade at N1,828.26/£1 versus Monday’s closing price of N1,821.87/£1, and against the Euro, it depreciated by N4.94 to close at N1,596.36/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,591.42/€1.
Similarly, the Naira crashed against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter yesterday by N4 to settle at N1,361/$1 versus the N1,357/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,365/$1.
The fall of the Naira coincided with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) buying US Dollars from the market to slow down the rapid rise of the nation’s legal tender. Latest information showed that last week, the apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.
The rationale was to keep foreign investors from pulling their money out of Nigeria’s fixed-income market. If they sell their investments, it could increase demand for US Dollars and lead to more Dollar outflow from the economy.
Meanwhile, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the Governor of the CBN, said Nigeria’s gross external reserves have risen to $50.45 billion – the highest level in 13 years, while speaking after the 304th meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN held on February 23 and 24.
The committee also reduced interest rates by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent after inflation eased in January 2026.
As for the cryptocurrency market, losses on concerns by embattled software businesses that artificial intelligence (AI) tools will destroy their business models continued and overturned some rallies on Tuesday.
Binance Coin (BNB) lost 2.1 per cent to sell for $585.41, Cardano (ADA) dropped 1.8 per cent to trade at $0.2595, Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 1.5 per cent to $0.0920, Bitcoin (BTC) shrank by 1.2 per cent to $64,098.80, Litecoin (LTC) slipped 1.1 per cent to $51.31, Ripple (XRP) slumped 0.6 per cent to $1.35, and Ethereum (ETH) declined by 0.4 per cent to $1,857.75.
However, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to sell at $78.95. while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Oil Slides as Iran Signals Willingness to Seal US Nuclear Deal
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil depreciated on Tuesday after Iran said it was prepared to take any necessary steps to clinch a deal with the United States ahead of nuclear talks later this week, with Brent futures shedding 72 cents or 1.0 per cent to trade at $70.77 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declining by 68 cents or 1.0 per cent to $65.63 a barrel.
Iran, the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the US will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland.
America wants Iran to give up its nuclear programme, which the country has denied trying to develop an atomic weapon.
Meanwhile, Iran’s deputy foreign minister said on Tuesday that it was ready to take any necessary steps to reach a deal with the US.
However, the US State Department is pulling out non-essential government personnel and their families from its embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, as concerns mount about the risk of a military conflict with Iran.
The US has deployed a vast naval force near the Iranian coast ahead of possible strikes on the Islamic Republic. The American president, on February 19, said he was giving Iran about 10 to 15 days to make a deal.
Also, the US began collecting a temporary new 10 per cent global import tariff on Tuesday, but President Trump’s administration was working to increase it to 15 per cent, a development that has led to confusion after the country’s Supreme Court ruling.
On the supply front, trading houses and buyers of Venezuelan oil have chartered the first very large crude carriers to export from the South American country since a supply deal began between the US and Venezuela. This is set to speed up shipments from March while boosting deliveries to India.
The European Commission will submit a legal proposal to permanently ban Russian oil imports on April 15.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 11.4 million barrels in the week ending February 20, after falling by 609,000 barrels in the week prior. Official data from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
Economy
Nigeria to Export New Crude Grade Cawthorne in March
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is set to commence export of a new light, sweet crude grade known as Cawthorne from March 2026.
According to a report by Reuters, an NNPC spokesperson confirmed the development, describing it as part of efforts to increase output and consolidate Nigeria’s recent recovery in crude oil production.
The move aligns with Nigeria’s broader strategy to boost production after years of constraints caused by pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and unrest in oil-producing regions.
This follows the launch of two other new grades, Obodo in 2025 and Utapate in 2024, Nigeria, whic,h as Africa’s top oil exporter, seeks to strengthen its standing within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+)
Cawthorne crude is scheduled for export in the third week of March and has an API gravity of 36.4, making it similar in quality to Nigeria’s Bonny Light, which is prized for high petrol and diesel yields.
According to Reuters, citing a trading source, the state oil national company issued a tender last week for cargo loading between March 24 and 25.
Analysts at Kpler noted that the new grade is expected to be exported via the Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel Cawthorne, which has a storage capacity of about 2.2 million barrels. The vessel is designed to enhance transportation and production from Oil Mining Lease (OML) 18 and nearby assets in the Eastern Niger Delta.
Kpler estimates that, based on storage capacity, Cawthorne could increase Nigeria’s crude and condensate output from roughly 1.65 million barrels per day to around 1.7 million barrels per day for the remainder of the year.
Nigeria’s crude oil production recently dropped from the OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, with output at 1.48 million barrels per day recorded in January, according to OPEC data.
Beyond increasing Nigeria’s crude offerings to the international market, the introduction of Cawthorne could also attract buyers seeking specific light, sweet crude qualities, buoy foreign exchange earnings, which would help strengthen government revenue and ease borrowing needs.
New crude grades are typically differentiated by sulfur content, API gravity, and production source, enabling producers to target specific refinery configurations and market segments.
In November 2024, NNPC officially launched the Utapate crude oil blend in the international market, describing it as a milestone for Nigeria’s export profile.
Earlier in July 2024, NNPC and its partner, Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO), lifted the first 950,000-barrel cargo of Utapate crude, which was shipped to Spain.
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