Economy
OPEC Mulls Further Cuts: What Does This Mean for Nigeria?
By Adedapo Adesanya
One of the greatest challenges currently facing the Nigerian economy is the dwindling prices of crude oil, which, using the Brent Crude standard, traded around the $54 dollar mark, $3 below the $57 per barrel benchmark set in the 2020 Budget.
Already, the country is faced with challenges regarding the contribution of the commodity to the country’s revenue and the new talks about the possibility of further production cap by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on its members, including Nigeria, may further worsen the situation for Africa’s largest oil producer.
OPEC is considering this new measure as a result of the effect of the deadly coronavirus on prices of crude oil at the global market. It is believed that if the volume of crude oil production is reduced, prices will pick up again.
At the OPEC meeting with allies led by Russia in Vienna, Austria in December last year, Nigeria had pledged with other members of the cartel to contribute to the 500,000 barrels per day cut to bring down production to 1.7 million barrels till the end of March.
However, with the continuous impact of the coronavirus from China, one of Nigeria’s crude destinations, it is evident that there might be more aggressive oil output cuts of up to one million barrels than previously considered, after reviewing new data on Tuesday that showed coronavirus’ deepening impact on global oil demand, officials at the cartel said.
The impact would be felt by Nigeria if oil prices don’t go up to at least $65 despite cuts because this would mean that at the current 1.774 million barrels per day (bpd) cap, Nigeria may be forced to produce lower volume of oil, which could lead the country’s economy into another recession and shortage of foreign exchange, which is affecting the nation’s external reserves, currently below $38 billion.
In the 2020 budget, Nigeria put its average crude oil production at 2.18 million barrels per day at $57 per barrel.
Market analysts noted that OPEC and a 10-nation group of allies led by Russia had initially considered cutting 500,000 barrels a day, but a handful of scenarios up for discussions at the gathering on Tuesday foresee a need for much larger production cuts.
The virus, which originated in the Wuhan City of China last year, has already contributed to a sharp decrease in demand for crude, driving oil prices further down the budget cap of many countries, and with this OPEC officials are set to issue recommendations at the meeting scheduled for both Tuesday, February 4 and Wednesday, February 5. Following whatever recommendation is given, a final decision then would come after OPEC and its allies meet next week.
On Tuesday, OPEC’s research department presented two models with different estimates of how the virus may affect oil consumption. According to the models, the worst-case scenario estimated that if the virus lasts for six months, this could lead to about 400,000 barrels a day of demand, before a market rebound to pre-virus growth levels in the second half of the year.
However, if the cartel were to maintain its current output reductions throughout that period, there would be a surplus of 600,000 barrels a day in the first quarter and 1 million in the second, the analysis showed.
While a recommendation has not been reached, oil prices on Wednesday morning have resumed pointing north with the Brent Crude closer to $55 per barrel while and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which fell below $50 was trading at $50.45 per barrel.
Economy
NAICOM Mandates 0.25% Premium Levy for New Protection Fund
By Adedapo Adesanya
All insurance and reinsurance companies operating in Nigeria are required to remit 0.25 per cent of their annual net premium income to a new fund, according to new guidelines by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM).
The insurance regulator has issued binding guidelines for a new industry-wide protection fund that will compel every licensed insurer and reinsurer in the country to make annual cash contributions, or risk losing their operating licence.
NAICOM published the framework for the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund (IPPF) under the authority of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, which was signed into law last August.
The guidelines, which take effect immediately, did not disclose an initial capitalisation target for the fund or a timeline for when it would be considered adequately funded for resolution purposes.
The IPPF is designed to function as a resolution backstop as a capital pool available to settle outstanding policyholder claims when a licensed insurer or reinsurer becomes insolvent or enters regulatory distress.
The mechanism addresses a longstanding vulnerability in the Nigerian market, where policyholders holding valid claims against failed insurers have historically had no guaranteed recourse.
The 0.25 per cent payments are due into designated deposit money bank accounts no later than June 30 each year.
NAICOM said it will supplement industry contributions by injecting 0.25 per cent of the balance held in the existing Security and Insurance Development Fund (SIDF) into the IPPF annually, creating a dual-stream capitalisation model.
The guidelines state explicitly that failure to remit the full assessed contribution within the stipulated timeframe shall constitute grounds for suspension or cancellation of an operator’s licence. The same penalty framework applies to defaults on any loans extended from the fund.
Day-to-day management of the IPPF will be delegated to an independent professional Fund Manager, subject to a minimum paid-up capital threshold of N5 billion.
Investment activity is restricted to low-risk, government-backed instruments. This is a deliberate constraint intended to preserve liquidity and protect the fund from market volatility.
Members are bound by a Code of Conduct that bars them from using their positions for personal advantage or to direct decisions in favour of any insurer, reinsurer, or connected party.
The guidelines introduce a mandatory early-warning mechanism: insurance operators who become aware of imprudent practices within their organisations or elsewhere in the industry are required to report such conduct to NAICOM within five working days.
The commission has provided explicit anti-retaliation protections, stating that no whistleblower shall be subjected to retaliation, intimidation, or any form of adverse action for making a disclosure.
Economy
Organised Private Sector Seeks Tinubu’s Help to Halt CETA Bill Passage
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
President Bola Tinubu has been called on to use his influence to halt the passage of the proposed Customs, Excise and Tariff Amendment (CETA) Bill.
The proposed piece of legislation is currently before the National Assembly, and it seeks to introduce a percentage levy per litre of the retail price on non-alcoholic beverages.
In an outlined advertorial published in key newspapers, the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria urged the federal government to engage with the leadership of the parliament to stop the ongoing legislative process with a view to stepping down the CETA Bill, thus allowing the executive-led fiscal reforms to be fully integrated and aligned.
The OPS comprises the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Nigerian Association of Small Scale Industrialists (NASSI), and the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME).
In the advertorial signed by the presidents of all members of the group, it was submitted that allowing for more talks would strengthen policy coherence, enhance predictability, and improve the effectiveness of the nation’s excise framework.
It was stressed that halting the bill would also encourage structured, evidence-based engagement with industry stakeholders, thereby ensuring that any future measures will effectively balance revenue generation, public health objectives, and economic sustainability.
“While we fully support well-designed fiscal reforms and evidence-based public health interventions, we are concerned that the Bill, in its current form, raises significant social, economic, administrative, and legal issues that could undermine Your Excellency’s broader fiscal reform objectives,” the body stated.
While calling on the government to restrain the Senate from proceeding with the process, the organisation noted that the proposed levy would therefore constitute a regressive measure, reducing consumer purchasing power without providing viable alternatives or meaningful public health support.
Commenting on the impact of such a levy on industry stability, investment, and employment, OPS stated that the sector was already under severe pressure from exchange rate adjustments, high energy costs, and rising prices of imported inputs, packaging materials, and machinery.
“An additional excise burden would further increase production costs, reduce capacity utilisation, delay or cancel planned investments, and threaten the livelihoods of thousands of small distributors, retailers, and informal traders who depend on high-volume, low-margin sales.
“These pressures would inevitably be passed on to consumers through higher prices, leading to reduced demand and potential further job losses across the value chain,” it stated.
While commending the president for the leadership and bold economic reforms undertaken since assuming office in 2023, it noted that the reforms have played an important role in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence within the business community.
Economy
CSCS, Afriland Properties, MRS Oil Weaken NASD Exchange by 1.12%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three stocks further weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.12 per cent on Wednesday, April 8, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 44.43 points to 3,930.91 points from the previous day’s 3,975.34 points, and the market capitalisation went down by N26.59 to N2.351 trillion from N2.378 trillion.
MRS Oil lost N11.00 during the session to close at N161.00 per share compared with Tuesday’s closing price of N172.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc dipped by N3.74 to N67.95 per unit from N71.69 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc fell by N1.10 to sell at N15.95 per share versus N17.05 per share.
There were two gainers at the midweek trading session, led by IPWA Plc, which appreciated by 55 Kobo to N6.61 per unit from N6.06 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc improved its value by 4 Kobo to N2.32 per share from N2.28 per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities rose by 620.4 per cent to 5.7 million units from 797,264 units, the value of securities increased by 25.1 per cent to N32.7 million from N26.1 million, and the number of deals climbed by 12.1 per cent to 37 deals from the preceding session’s 33 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by CSCS Plc with 57.2 million units exchanged for N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.5 million units traded for N1.8 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units worth N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.
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