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Oil Prices Positive Over Record US Crude Output Cuts

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brent crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil futures wrapped the week on Friday bullish with support coming from news that the United States oil output cuts in May were the largest on record.

The international benchmark, Brent crude, gained 36 cents or 0.84 per cent to sell at $43.30 per barrel, while on the other hand, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 35 cents or 0.88 per cent to settle at $40.27 per barrel.

Coinciding with the end of the month, the gains showed that both benchmarks ended the month of July with gains.

Brent crude posted a fourth month of gains and US crude posted a third as both rise from depths hit in April when much of the world was in lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Friday’s gains came on the back of reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which revealed in a monthly report that US crude oil production plummeted in May, falling a record 2 million barrels per day to 10 million barrels per day.

Also adding to this was investors latching onto drop in the dollar. The American currency extended its dramatic fall on Friday and was on course for its biggest monthly drop in years after it was revealed that US gross domestic product (GDP) collapsed at a 32.9 per cent annualized rate – the steepest decline in output since records began in 1947.

However, analysts warn that this may not be sustainable with increasing coronavirus infections raising the risk of renewed lockdowns and threatening any rebound.

Almost 300,000 new coronavirus cases were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) over the last 24 hours, marking the largest single-day increase ever, according to WHO on Friday.

More than half the 292,527 new cases reported on Thursday came from the Americas, which had 171,946 cases, according to data from the WHO. Southeast Asia reported the second-highest number of cases, with 60,113 reported infections, followed by Europe, with 25,241.

Globally, the virus has infected more than 17 million people and killed at least 668,910 since it emerged almost seven months ago, according to data gathered by Business Post.

This increase is coming at a time when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, OPEC+ are set taper production cuts from 9.7 million barrels per day to 7.7 million barrels starting on Saturday.

Traders will next week closely monitor oil output increases by OPEC+ as they collectively plan to increase production, adding about 1.5 million barrels per day to global supply, after slashing output from May to July.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Strong Investor Sentiment Keeps NGX Index in Green Territory by 0.31%

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All-Share Index NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited remained in the green territory on Wednesday after it rallied by 0.31 per cent on the back of sustained bargain-hunting activities by investors.

Business Post reports that all the key sectors of the market closed higher at midweek as a result of the renewed interest in local equities.

Data showed that the energy index appreciated by 2.59 per cent, the insurance space grew by 2.34 per cent, the industrial goods sector improved by 0.15 per cent, the banking counter expanded by 0.06 per cent, and the consumer goods industry rose by 0.04 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 302.71 points to settle at 98,509.68 points compared with Tuesday’s closing value of 98,206.97 points and the market capitalisation added N183 billion to close at N59.715 trillion versus the preceding day’s N59.532 trillion.

It was observed that the level of activity yesterday waned as the trading volume, value and number of deals decreased by 65.93 per cent, 49.22 per cent, and 12.70 per cent, respectively.

On Wednesday, a total of 320.1 million stocks valued at N6.5 billion were transacted in 7,943 deals, in contrast to the 939.4 million stocks worth N12.8 billion traded in 9,098 deals.

The busiest equity at midweek was eTranzact, which transacted 70.3 million units for N474.2 million, Universal Insurance traded 23.8 million units worth 8.1 million, Zenith Bank exchanged 21.2 million units valued at N933.5 million, FBN Holdings sold 18.6 million units worth N491.2 million, and UBA traded 14.0 million units valued at N465.8 million.

At the close of transactions, 34 shares ended on the gainers’ log and 17 shares finished on the losers’ chart, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

Africa Prudential gained 10.00 per cent to quote at N14.30, Conoil also improved by 10.00 per cent to N352.00, and RT Briscoe expanded by 10.00 per cent to N2.42, as Golden Guinea Breweries jumped by 9.95 per cent to N7.18, while NEM Insurance grew by 9.74 per cent to N10.70.

However, Julius Berger lost 10.00 per cent to close at N155.25, Secure Electronic Technology shed 9.52 per cent to trade at 57 Kobo, Multiverse declined by 7.63 per cent to N5.45, Haldane McCall tumbled by 6.07 per cent to N4.95, and Honeywell Flour crashed by 5.62 per cent to N4.70.

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Economy

Crude Oil Jumps as EU Slams Fresh Sanctions on Russia

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crude oil 1.27 million barrels per day

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices went up on Wednesday after the European Union (EU) agreed to an additional round of sanctions threatening Russian oil flows that could tighten global crude supplies.

During the session, Brent crude futures jumped by $1.33 or 1.84 per cent to $73.52 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $1.70 or 2.48 per cent to $70.29 per barrel.

EU ambassadors agreed on a 15th package of sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet and Chinese firms making drones for the country.

The sanctions would target vessels from third countries supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and add more individuals and entities to the sanctions list. It will not be adopted until after foreign ministers approve the package on Monday.

The shadow fleet has aided Russia in bypassing the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by the G7 on Russian seaborne crude oil in 2022 and has helped keep Russian oil flowing.

Prices were supported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which reported an estimated inventory decline of 1.4 million barrels for the week to December 6. In fuels, however, the EIA estimated sizable builds.

The crude oil inventory figure compares with a draw of 5.1 million barrels for the previous week that pushed prices higher for a while but the gains soon got erased by weak global demand growth prospects.

A day before the EIA, the American Petroleum Institute (API) had estimated inventory changes at a positive 499,000 barrels for the week to December 6.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth straight month and by the largest amount.

In its December report, the cartel expects 2024 global oil demand to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day, down from 1.82 million barrels per day last month.

OPEC also cut its 2025 growth estimate to 1.45 million barrels per day from 1.54 million barrels per day.

The 210,000 barrels per day cut in the 2024 figure is the largest of the five reductions OPEC has made in its monthly reports since August. In July, OPEC had expected world demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day.

Weak demand, particularly in top importer China, and non-OPEC+ supply growth were two factors behind the move.

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Again, OPEC Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Forecasts

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OPEC output cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.

The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.

The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.

For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.

On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.

The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.

OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.

Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.

In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.

In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.

These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.

Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.

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