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Brent Nears $75 Amid Iran Supply Uncertainty, Weaker Dollar

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Brent crude soared closer to $75 per barrel on Monday, June 21 on the back of uncertainty concerning the renewed talks on lifting US sanctions on Iranian crude as the new President-elect of Iran, Mr Ebrahim Raisi.

It was observed that yesterday, the price of the global crude benchmark traded at $74.93 per barrel after gaining $1.42 cents or 1.93 per cent, while the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.61 per cent or $1.87 to trade at $73.66 per barrel.

Both benchmarks have risen for the past four weeks on optimism over the pace of global COVID-19 vaccinations and expected pick-up in summer travel.

The prices further grew as Mr Raisa, who is referred to as a hardliner, noted that he would seek to improve ties with regional neighbours and revive the 2015 nuclear deal but at the same time ruled out meeting with US President Joe Biden.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) brokered by former American President, Mr Barack Obama, lifted sanctions on Iran products that had crippled its economy and cut its oil exports roughly in half in exchange for curbs to its nuclear program.

In exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief, Iran agreed to dismantle some of its nuclear programmes and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections.

Apart from the United States, France, Germany, the U.K., Russia and China were also signatories of the agreement.

In 2018, then-President Donald Trump kept a campaign promise and unilaterally withdrew the United States from the JCPOA and reintroduced sanctions on the Middle East country that had been previously lifted.

Iran has since ramped up its nuclear activity far beyond the deal’s limits in what it says is a protest against the sanctions.

Now, if they reach a deal, Iran could start exporting an extra 1 million barrels per day, or 1 per cent of global supply, for more than six months from its storage facilities.

Also helping the black gold was a weaker US Dollar, which can send speculative investors into greenback-denominated assets like crude.

Investors also looked at a report from the Bank of America which forecast that oil may surge to $100 a barrel next year as travel demand rebounds.

The bank explained that global oil consumption will continue to outstrip supply in 2022 as the economic recovery from the pandemic boosts fuel consumption, while investment in new production is pressured by environmental concerns.

If crude does return to triple digits, it will be the first time since 2014, before a flood of North American shale oil sent the market into a slump from which it has never fully recovered.

Oil prices have also drawn support from forecasts of limited growth in US oil output.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

SEC Okays 50% Hike in X-Alert Fee for Capital Market Transactions

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a 50 per cent hike in the X-Alert service fee per transaction in the Nigerian capital market.

The X-Alert fee is a flat rate charged for sending real-time SMS/email notifications for transactions to investors from both buy and sell sides.

It was introduced by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) to replace percentage-based charges, aimed at increasing transparency and reducing total transaction costs for investors.

Investors were earlier charged N4 per SMS, but the country’s apex capital market regulator has approved a 50 per cent increase in X-Alert service fee, meaning the new rate is N6 per SMS.

Business Post gathered from one of the players in the ecosystem that the effective date for the new price was Thursday, March 26, 2026.

“We wish to inform you of a revision to the X-Alert (SMS) service fee applicable to transactions executed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

“Following approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the X-Alert fee has been reviewed upward from N4.00 to N6.00 per transaction,” the notice sighted by this newspaper read.

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Economy

World Bank Projects 4.2% Growth for Nigeria Amid Risks

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s economy is projected to remain resilient in the face of mounting global uncertainties, with the World Bank forecasting a 4.2 per cent growth rate in 2026.

However, the global lender has warned that rising fuel costs and persistent inflation, worsened by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could undermine household incomes and slow poverty reduction.

Speaking in Abuja, the bank’s lead economist for Nigeria, Mr Fiseha Haile, noted that while the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed up prices, overall economic activity has remained largely intact.

“Overall business activity has been expanding over the past few ​months, suggesting the impact on growth has been relatively contained. But the shock is still ⁠being felt through higher inflation,” Mr Haile said.

According to him, business activity has continued to expand in recent months, indicating that the broader impact on growth has been “relatively contained,” even as inflationary pressures intensify.

Nigeria’s inflation rate, though significantly reduced from around 33 per cent in December 2024 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026, remains elevated compared to regional peers.

“Inflation is still elevated and under ‌increasing ⁠pressure, and that poses risks to incomes and poverty reduction,” Mr Haile said.

The renewed surge in fuel prices, reportedly rising by over 50 per cent during the Iran conflict, has had a ripple effect on transportation, food, and production costs, amplifying the cost-of-living crisis.

The World Bank urged Nigerian authorities to adopt prudent macroeconomic measures, including tightening monetary policy, avoiding blanket subsidies, and saving windfalls from higher oil prices to strengthen fiscal buffers.

It also recommended reconsidering restrictions on fuel imports as a potential tool to ease inflationary pressures.

The economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu — including the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, and tax restructuring — were acknowledged as ambitious steps aimed at stabilising the economy.

These reforms have contributed to improved external buffers, with rising foreign exchange reserves and reduced volatility.

Additionally, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit stood at 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, while the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade.

Yet, the World Bank cautioned that tighter global financial conditions could still pose risks to capital inflows, borrowing costs, and remittances.

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Economy

FTSE Russell Restores Nigeria’s Frontier Market Status

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Frontier Market status of Nigeria, earlier yanked off by FTSE Russell, has now been fully restored.

The platform earlier reclassified the country’s status to Unclassified following several uncertainties and economic issues.

But after recommendations from its Equity Country Classification Advisory Committee and Policy Advisory Board, the Frontier Market status has been restored by FTSE Russell, marking a significant milestone in the country’s reintegration into global investment indices and signalling renewed opportunity for international investors.

However, this will take effect from September 2026, with the outcome announced as part of the March 2026 interim review and communicated to investors across key global markets.

The decision reflects sustained improvements in Nigeria’s market infrastructure, accessibility, and overall investability, driven in large part by enhancements to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) platform. These include strengthened trading systems, improved settlement processes, and increased transparency, all of which have contributed to a more efficient and accessible market environment for domestic and international investors.

According to the FTSE Quality of Markets assessment, Nigeria recorded Pass ratings across several core criteria, including regulatory oversight, capital repatriation, brokerage competitiveness, tax framework, and settlement efficiency, with a T+2 settlement cycle in operation. These gains reflect deliberate efforts to align market operations with global standards and improve the investor experience.

While acknowledging this progress, the review also highlighted areas for further development, including foreign exchange market depth, transaction cost efficiency, derivatives market availability, and certain custody and clearing mechanisms. Addressing these gaps will require continued coordination across regulators, market operators, and the broader financial ecosystem.

FTSE Russell noted that its country classification process combines detailed technical assessment with input from global institutional investors, ensuring that both structural conditions and real-world investor experience are reflected. The organisation also commended Nigerian market authorities for their continued engagement.

“This milestone reflects the strength of collaboration across Nigeria’s capital market ecosystem, but importantly, the deliberate efforts to strengthen the underlying market infrastructure that supports efficient trading, transparency, and investor access,” the chief executive of NGX Group Plc, Mr Temi Popoola, said.

“At NGX Group, we have remained focused on building a more resilient, accessible, and globally competitive platform, and this reclassification affirms the progress made.

“We will continue to work closely with regulators, market operators and stakeholders to deepen reforms, address identified gaps, and sustain momentum towards higher market classifications,” he added.

The Frontier Market designation is expected to enhance Nigeria’s visibility among global asset managers and index-tracking funds, potentially unlocking new capital inflows and broadening participation in the market.

As global investors increasingly prioritise markets with strong infrastructure, transparency, and accessibility, Nigeria’s re-entry into the FTSE Frontier Market universe underscores the critical role of market infrastructure in enabling capital formation and connecting local opportunities to global capital.

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