Banking
GTBank Foresees Banks Struggling With 15% CAR
**Expects Tighter System Liquidity, Rise in Interest Rates in 2021
By Dipo Olowookere
One of the leading financial institutions in the country, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) Plc, is projecting a further increase in interest rates.
In its Nigeria Macro Economic and Banking Sector Outlook for 2021 obtained by Business Post, the lender said the spike in the interest rates would be triggered by “the additional borrowings by the government as well as relatively lower OMO maturities into the system.”
GTBank disclosed in the report that it also foresees the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sustaining its “policy stance going into 2021 driven largely by the need to improve credit flow to spur economic growth.”
Recall that recently, in a move to attract portfolio flows and reduce the consistent exit of investors, the CBN increased yields of fixed income securities, causing investors to abandon the equity market, which has so far lost 4.03 per cent this year.
Liquidity expectation
Commenting on the liquidity outlook for the year, GTBank said it expects it to be tighter, noting that, “For one, only N4.3 trillion in OMO securities will be maturing this year, with over 50 per cent of that maturing within the first quarter of the year which implies about N2.5 trillion of liquidity injection into the system in Q1, with attendant CRR implications assuming that the CBN maintains its trend of reissuing a portion of the maturing securities.”
The lender noted that, “This could result in the outflow of more funds from the market in form of CRR,” adding that from Q2 2021, however, “we expect a shift in the liquidity situation of the market, based on the significantly reduced OMO maturities of N1.7 trillion.”
According to the bank, “In the absence of other liquidity injection sources, market liquidity is expected to tighten significantly with a resultant decline in special CRR debits.”
“As a result of the tightening of liquidity conditions expected in the market from Q2 2021, we anticipate a rise in volatilities within the money market and fixed income space.
“We also anticipate a renewed scramble for deposits by banks and other financial institutions to meet demands on them for funds.
“Money market rates, should on average, rise steadily across the period with a resultant pull on deposit and lending rates.
“In view of the above, the CBN might have to consider the possibility of releasing some of the CRR sterilised by it,” the report further said.
Banking sector capitalisation
In terms of the capitalisation of the banking sector, GTBank said it foresees some players struggling with the regulatory minimum capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 15 per cent as a result of the devaluation of Naira.
“Consequently, we expect banks with shortfalls in their capital positions to retain more of [their] earnings to shore up their capital and keep themselves within touching distance of the minimum regulatory capital requirement.
“It is also not unlikely that the apex bank will offer some form of regulatory forbearance to banks that fall short of the minimum regulatory capital,” the report noted.
Over a decade ago, the banking sector in Nigeria went through a major transformation, with mergers and acquisitions to meet up with the minimum capital base of N25 billion. Some observers have called for a revisit of this amount because of the devaluation of the local currency since then.
Banks and Fintech competition
GTBank said in its report that it projects a level playing field for traditional banks and their non-bank competitors, which are mainly the financial technology (fintech) companies.
It explained this is expected because the CBN, with an expanded role in the new Banking and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020, would likely increase the operational and regulatory costs of fintechs, which would stifle their drive in the long to medium term.
FX Outlook
In the report, the lender projected a tightening of the gap between the parallel market rate and the official rate due to a marginal adjustment of the currency in 2021.
“Our expectation of the appreciation of parallel market rates is predicated on increased supply to that market, however, it should be noted that a devaluation in the official market usually triggers an immediate devaluation in the parallel market even if short-lived.
“Notably, a further devaluation to levels closer to the general consensus of the true value of the Naira is expected to trigger increased foreign portfolio flows into the country,” it stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of ThetaRay, a fintech software and big data analytics company, Mr Brad Levy, says the recent directive by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) requiring financial institutions to deploy automated anti-money laundering (AML) systems is a strategic leap towards building a modern financial system optimised for digital trade.
The central bank issued a circular on March 10 requiring banks, mobile money operators and other regulated institutions to deploy automated AML solutions within 18 to 24 months. The move signals a shift by the regulator to tighten oversight and reduce financial crime risks in Nigeria’s banking system, as digital transactions continue to grow.
Mr Levy, whose ThetaRay works with financial institutions and fintechs across Africa, including in Nigeria, to implement AI-powered AML transaction monitoring solutions capable of detecting complex financial crime patterns in real time, noted that Nigeria is applying revolutionary methods in financial regulation—skipping older, manual compliance systems and going straight to advanced, AI-driven ones.
“The CBN’s mandate is Nigeria’s ‘mobile phone’ moment for financial integrity. Just as Africa bypassed landlines for mobile and the U.S. lagged on chip-and-pin tech, Nigeria is now leapfrogging the failing, manual ‘landline’ era of compliance. By mandating AI, Nigeria is skipping decades of Western technical debt to build a 21st-century infrastructure of trust that moves at the speed of modern trade,” he told Business Post.
Automation and AI in AML have shifted from a competitive advantage to a regulatory requirement, and the new CBN mandate will help Nigerian banks and fintechs in several areas, including achieving transparency, as transactions are continuously monitored and recorded in real time. This allows for the immediate detection of irregularities such as fraud or money laundering, significantly reducing the window for illicit activities to go unnoticed.
The new rules could drive significant investment in compliance technology, as institutions move away from manual processes that are slower and more prone to errors.
The requirements cover key areas such as transaction monitoring, customer due diligence, risk profiling, case management and regulatory reporting, all of which must now be automated.
The CBN’s directive comes amid intensifying global regulatory pressure on financial institutions to strengthen AML controls, particularly within rapidly expanding digital economies. For Nigeria, these new requirements are poised to significantly transform how banks approach compliance while also opening up new opportunities for startups to deliver specialised compliance and regulatory technology solutions.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
On Monday, March 30, 2026, Fidelity Bank Plc will host a Gele Masterclass to help women build practical, income-generating skills, strengthen professional visibility, and accelerate career growth.
This event will be the second part of a series of masterclasses and support initiatives planned for March 2026 in commemoration of International Women’s Day under the theme Give to Gain.
On March 18, 2026, the lender, through its women-focused proposition, HerFidelity, hosted a masterclass on communication and presentation.
The session offered practical guidance on audience engagement, event moderation, confidence-building, and personal branding, with a strong focus on women looking to improve their public speaking and professional presence.
HerFidelity is positioning the session as a celebration of cultural expression and a marketable skill women can turn into a source of income.
In addition to the masterclasses, the bank will provide professional headshot sessions to help participants update their personal and professional profiles.
“At Fidelity Bank, we believe that empowering women economically creates an impact that extends beyond the individual. It strengthens families, grows businesses, and uplifts communities. That is why we have designed an elaborate plan to upskill women throughout this month.
“We want women to leave these sessions with practical tools they can apply immediately, whether that is speaking confidently in public, building a stronger personal brand, or learning a skill that can generate income,” the Divisional Head of Small and Medium-scale Enterprises Banking at Fidelity Bank, Ms Ugochi Osinigwe, said.
Earlier this month, the bank reaffirmed its commitment to women’s economic empowerment with the signing of strategic MoUs with partner organisations at the launch of its Give Her Power initiative on March 5, 2026.
The collaborations, anchored on the bank’s HerFidelity Apprenticeship Programme, are designed to expand access to vocational training, business support, and sustainable enterprise opportunities for women across multiple sectors.
As part of the initiative, Fidelity Bank is distributing 1,000 sewing and grinding machines to empower women-led microbusinesses across Nigeria.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A partnership aimed to unlock diaspora capital for Nigeria’s growth has been deepened by the United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc and the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM).
The chief executive of UBA, Mr Oliver Alawuba, underscored the diaspora’s critical role as a powerful economic force and a generation of builders shaping new narratives for the continent.
He also reiterated the financial institution’s readiness to leverage its global network and innovative financial solutions to support diaspora engagement, urging Nigerians abroad to tap into opportunities within Africa’s economic landscape.
“You are not limited here; you have opportunities on the continent, and we want you to make good use of them. That is where banking, and we at UBA, become the connecting point that you need to access the opportunities back home.
“Whether you like it or not, the returns are high in Africa, and we are here to help you navigate that space,” the UBA chief said on Monday when he hosted key representatives of NiDCOM led by its chairman, Mrs Abike Dabiri, at the bank’s office in the United Kingdom.
UBA recently launched a Diaspora Banking platform to provide a seamless, integrated platform for Africans in the diaspora to bank, invest, and manage their financial obligations back home, thus connecting global Africans with investment and wealth opportunities.
The lender introduced the platform, with leading ecosystem partners representing a major step in redefining diaspora banking beyond remittances toward structured wealth creation and long-term investment.
“With UBA, you have a financial partner that is with you, that understands what you are going through, and that can support you to make sure you realise your aspirations, both here and in the country,” Mr Alawuba noted.
In her remarks, Mrs Dabiri-Erewa praised UBA for being a trusted financial partner over the years, especially with the recent launch of its diaspora platform.
“Many of you here are the real game-changers. “For years, it has been wonderful engaging Nigerians all over the world. When I started, it felt like we only heard the bad stories, not the good ones. What we have tried to do internationally is to tell and celebrate the good stories. We have Nigerians doing well all over the world, and they are in this room. We must continue to celebrate you,” she stated.
While remarking that the meeting demonstrates a significant step in aligning public and private sector efforts to deepen diaspora inclusion and accelerate Nigeria’s development agenda, she pledged closer collaboration in driving policies and initiatives that encourage Nigerians abroad to actively participate in the country’s economic growth.
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