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GTBank Foresees Banks Struggling With 15% CAR

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GTBank Beta Health

**Expects Tighter System Liquidity, Rise in Interest Rates in 2021

By Dipo Olowookere

One of the leading financial institutions in the country, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) Plc, is projecting a further increase in interest rates.

In its Nigeria Macro Economic and Banking Sector Outlook for 2021 obtained by Business Post, the lender said the spike in the interest rates would be triggered by “the additional borrowings by the government as well as relatively lower OMO maturities into the system.”

GTBank disclosed in the report that it also foresees the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sustaining its “policy stance going into 2021 driven largely by the need to improve credit flow to spur economic growth.”

Recall that recently, in a move to attract portfolio flows and reduce the consistent exit of investors, the CBN increased yields of fixed income securities, causing investors to abandon the equity market, which has so far lost 4.03 per cent this year.

Liquidity expectation

Commenting on the liquidity outlook for the year, GTBank said it expects it to be tighter, noting that, “For one, only N4.3 trillion in OMO securities will be maturing this year, with over 50 per cent of that maturing within the first quarter of the year which implies about N2.5 trillion of liquidity injection into the system in Q1, with attendant CRR implications assuming that the CBN maintains its trend of reissuing a portion of the maturing securities.”

The lender noted that, “This could result in the outflow of more funds from the market in form of CRR,” adding that from Q2 2021, however, “we expect a shift in the liquidity situation of the market, based on the significantly reduced OMO maturities of N1.7 trillion.”

According to the bank, “In the absence of other liquidity injection sources, market liquidity is expected to tighten significantly with a resultant decline in special CRR debits.”

“As a result of the tightening of liquidity conditions expected in the market from Q2 2021, we anticipate a rise in volatilities within the money market and fixed income space.

“We also anticipate a renewed scramble for deposits by banks and other financial institutions to meet demands on them for funds.

“Money market rates, should on average, rise steadily across the period with a resultant pull on deposit and lending rates.

“In view of the above, the CBN might have to consider the possibility of releasing some of the CRR sterilised by it,” the report further said.

Banking sector capitalisation

In terms of the capitalisation of the banking sector, GTBank said it foresees some players struggling with the regulatory minimum capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 15 per cent as a result of the devaluation of Naira.

“Consequently, we expect banks with shortfalls in their capital positions to retain more of [their] earnings to shore up their capital and keep themselves within touching distance of the minimum regulatory capital requirement.

“It is also not unlikely that the apex bank will offer some form of regulatory forbearance to banks that fall short of the minimum regulatory capital,” the report noted.

Over a decade ago, the banking sector in Nigeria went through a major transformation, with mergers and acquisitions to meet up with the minimum capital base of N25 billion. Some observers have called for a revisit of this amount because of the devaluation of the local currency since then.

Banks and Fintech competition

GTBank said in its report that it projects a level playing field for traditional banks and their non-bank competitors, which are mainly the financial technology (fintech) companies.

It explained this is expected because the CBN, with an expanded role in the new Banking and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020, would likely increase the operational and regulatory costs of fintechs, which would stifle their drive in the long to medium term.

FX Outlook

In the report, the lender projected a tightening of the gap between the parallel market rate and the official rate due to a marginal adjustment of the currency in 2021.

“Our expectation of the appreciation of parallel market rates is predicated on increased supply to that market, however, it should be noted that a devaluation in the official market usually triggers an immediate devaluation in the parallel market even if short-lived.

“Notably, a further devaluation to levels closer to the general consensus of the true value of the Naira is expected to trigger increased foreign portfolio flows into the country,” it stated.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Banking

Senate Seeks CBN’s Full Disclosure on Unremitted N1.44trn Surplus

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senate cbn

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Senate has demanded detailed explanation from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over the alleged non-remittance of N1.44 trillion in operating surplus.

The Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, chaired by Mr Tokunbo Abiru, opened its statutory briefing with a firm call for transparency at the apex bank, noting that the Auditor-General’s query on the unremitted funds required a full, clear and documented response, insisting that public trust in monetary governance depended on strict accountability.

While acknowledging the CBN’s achievements in stabilising the foreign exchange market and reducing inflation, Mr Abiru underscored that such progress must be accompanied by institutional responsibility.

He stated the Senate expected the CBN to explain the circumstances surrounding the query, outline corrective steps taken and reveal safeguards against future lapses.

This came as the Governor of the central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, appeared before the senate committee and offered an extensive review of economic conditions, asserting that Nigeria was experiencing renewed macroeconomic stability across major indicators.

Mr Cardoso attributed the progress to bold monetary reforms, foreign-exchange liberalisation and disciplined liquidity management implemented since mid-2025.

According to him, headline inflation had declined for seven consecutive months, from 34.6 per cent in November 2024 to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, marking the steepest and longest disinflation trend in over a decade.

Food inflation accruing to him also slowed to 13.12 per cent, supported by improved supply conditions and exchange-rate predictability.

The CBN governor described the foreign-exchange market as fundamentally transformed, adding that speculative attacks and arbitrage opportunities had largely disappeared.

According to him, the premium between the official and parallel markets had fallen to below two per cent, compared to over 60 per cent a year earlier. As of November 26, the naira traded at N1,442.92 per dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, stronger than the N1,551 average recorded in the first half of 2025.

He also announced a sharp rise in external reserves to $46.7 billion, the highest in nearly seven years and sufficient to cover over ten months of imports.

Diaspora remittances, he noted, had tripled to about $600 million monthly, while foreign capital inflows reached $20.98 billion in the first ten months of 2025, 70 per cent higher than in 2024 and more than four times the 2023 figure.

Cardoso further confirmed that the CBN had fully cleared the $7 billion verified FX backlog, restoring investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.

On banking-sector stability, he reported that recapitalisation efforts were progressing smoothly. Twenty-seven banks had already raised new capital, with sixteen meeting or surpassing the new regulatory thresholds ahead of the March 31, 2026 deadline, highlighting improvements in ATM cash availability, digital-payments oversight and cybersecurity compliance.

Despite the positive indicators, the Senate sought clarity on several policy decisions.

Mr Abiru pressed for explanations on the sustained 45 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), the 75 per cent CRR applied to non-Treasury Single Account public-sector deposits, FX forward settlements, mutilated naira notes in circulation, excessive bank charges, failed electronic transactions and the compliance of CBN subsidiaries with parliamentary oversight.

He also requested an update on the activities of the Financial Services Regulatory Coordinating Committee, arguing that stronger inter-agency cooperation was necessary to maintain public confidence.

The session later moved into a closed-door meeting.

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Banking

Toxic Bank Assets: AMCON Repays CBN N3.6trn, Still Owes N3trn

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AMCON headquarters

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

About N3.6 trillion has been repaid to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) by the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) since its inception in 2010.

This information was revealed by the chief executive of AMCON, Mr Gbenga Alade, during a media parley to update the press on the activities of the agency.

Mr Alade said at the moment, the organisation still owes the central bank about N3 trillion for toxic assets of banks in the country.

He praised the organisation for its asset recovery drive, stressing that when compared with others across the world, Nigeria has done well.

“It is important to stress that the corporation has done tremendously well, especially when compared to other notable government-owned Asset Management Corporations around the world.

“Based on the balance at purchase, AMCON outperformed other Asset Management Corporations all over the world by achieving over 87 per cent in recoveries despite the unique challenges associated with debt recovery in Nigeria.

“The Malaysian Danaharta, which is adjudged one of the best performing Asset Management Corporation’s, only achieved 58 per cent. The Chinese Asset Management Corporation, despite its stricter laws, achieved just 33 per cent.

“Only the Korean Asset Management Corporation (KAMCO), South Korea, has achieved more recoveries than AMCON, with about 100 per cent. This was due to their brute force with which they chased the obligors.

“Despite KAMCO’s recovery records, the agency is still operational to date with slight realignments in its mandate.

“Other noted Asset Management Corporations that have transitioned into a perpetual institution of the various governments include, China Asset Management Company, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) USA, and KFW Germany.

“So, gentlemen, without sounding immodest, AMCON has done well, and we will not relent until all the outstanding debts are fully realized,” Mr Alade stated.

On the financial performance of AMCON, he said last year, the firm posted a revenue of N156.25 billion and operating expenses of N29.04 billion, while for the 2025 fiscal year should be a revenue of N215.15 billion and operating expenses of N29.06 billion.

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Banking

The Alternative Bank Opens Effurun Branch in Delta

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The Alternative Bank Effurun

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

One of the non-interest banks in Nigeria, The Alternative Bank (AltBank), has opened a new branch in Effurun, Delta State.

The new office will serve the Edo-Delta region and provide purposeful banking and real financial empowerment for individuals, entrepreneurs, and businesses, a statement from the firm stated.

The lender disclosed that the Effurun branch is a bold move in its mission to reshape banking in Nigeria.

The launch was graced by key dignitaries, including the Ovie of Uvwie Kingdom, Emmanuel Ekemejewa Sideso Abe I; the Chairman of Uvwie Local Government, Anthony O. Ofoni, represented his vice, Andrew Agagbo; and the Special Adviser to the Governor of Delta State on Community Development, Mr Ernest Airoboyi; amongst others.

The Divisional Head for South at The Alternative Bank, Mr Chukwuemeka Agada, emphasised the institution’s commitment to Warri and its surrounding communities.

“By establishing a presence here, we are initiating a transformation in the way banking serves the people of Delta. Our purpose-driven approach ensures that customers’ financial goals are not just met but exceeded,” he stated.

“This branch represents our pledge to empower Warri’s dynamic businesses and families, providing them with the tools to grow without compromise,” Mr Agada added.

“We understand the heartbeat of this community, and we are excited to integrate our bank into the fabric of this dynamic region,” he stated further.

On his part, the representative of the Ovie, Mr Samuel Eshenake, challenged the bank to facilitate development and employment within the Effurun community.

The Regional Head for Edo/Delta at The Alternative Bank, Mr Akanni Owolabi, embraced this challenge, pledging that the bank will work sustainably to drive local commerce.

“At The Alternative Bank, we are committed to being an active partner in the development of Effurun. We see this branch as a catalyst for creating opportunities, driving employment, and supporting the growth of local businesses.

“Our mission is to empower this community, ensuring that every step forward is one of progress, prosperity, and shared success.”

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