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Zenith Bank, GTBank Remain Strongest in Nigeria Despite Fitch Downgrade

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

GTBank and Zenith have emerged the highest rated banks in Nigeria with Long-Term IDRs and VRs of ‘B+’ and ‘b+’ respectively despite the revision of four Nigerian Banks’ Outlook to Negative by Fitch Ratings this week.

According to the world leading rating agency, the ratings of the two banks are driven by solid company profiles, management quality and strong through-the-cycle performance.

In a statement issued by Fitch on Wednesday, The IDR Outlooks on Zenith and GTB (both at B+) were revised to Negative following a recent similar action on Nigeria’s (B+) Outlook, but despite this, they still remain the highest rated banks in Nigeria.

The Negative Outlooks on their Long-Term IDRs reflect Fitch’s view that they cannot be rated above the sovereign due to the close correlation between the domestic operating environment and their credit profiles, including large holdings of government securities.

The statement noted that the IDRs of all the banks (except SIBTC/SIBTCH) are driven by Fitch’s assessment of their standalone creditworthiness as captured in their Viability Ratings (VRs).

The IDRs are all in the ‘B’ range, indicating highly speculative fundamental credit quality, and factor in the banks’ weakened credit profiles due to challenging macro-economic conditions and market volatility.

The operating environment continues to be affected by the oil price shock, slow GDP growth, continuing pressure on the naira, scarcity of hard currency in the FX interbank market and policy uncertainty.

The VRs continue to be pressured by tight foreign currency liquidity, asset quality deterioration and limited capital buffers. The sector remains largely profitable, but operating profits in 2016 were inflated by foreign currency revaluation gains (due to the sharp depreciation of the naira in June 2016). Foreign currency-adjusted ‘normalised’ operating profit, although still healthy, is vulnerable to rising loan impairment charges (LICs). As a consequence, the banks VRs remain in the highly speculative ‘b’ range.

Fitch said it is monitoring the banks’ ability to meet maturing external obligations given current difficult market conditions and limited supply of foreign currency from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The new foreign-exchange regime has provided limited respite in accessing foreign currency in the interbank market. FX forward contracts provided by the CBN since June 2016 have helped the banks access foreign currency to reduce a large backlog of overdue trade finance obligations. These were either extended or refinanced with international correspondent banks.

Further depreciation of the naira against the US dollar would negatively impact banks’ regulatory capital ratios due to the translation effect of risk-weighted assets (RWAs). Some banks have limited buffers over regulatory minimums and further erosion of capital ratios beyond our expectations could be credit-negative.

Fitch said UBA’s VR reflects the bank’s strong franchise and company profile, which includes a broad pan-African footprint, as well as healthy financial metrics, including adequate capital and leverage ratios and resilient earnings.

Access’s VR reflects the bank’s expanding franchise and market share as well as a strengthened business model and good track-record of execution. The rating also considers the bank’s healthy financial profile, including strong asset quality and capital ratios.

FBNH’s and FBN’s VRs reflect the group’s traditionally strong franchise and company profile in Nigeria and regionally and a large retail network. The VRs also factor in the bank’s very high non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, large loan concentrations to the oil sector and weak capital position. The Outlook on the Long-Term IDRs is revised to Negative to reflect continued pressure on capital as addressing its substantial asset quality problems will likely take time.

Diamond’s VR reflects the bank’s high risk appetite and weaker earnings. The Outlook on the Long-Term IDR is revised to Negative to reflect a very tight foreign currency liquidity position and pressure on capital arising from weak asset quality.

Fidelity’s VR reflects the institution’s strong second-tier franchise and sound capital ratios as well as sensitivity to high credit concentrations and weak earnings.

FCMB’s VR reflects the bank’s limited company profile, exposure to higher-risk segments, tight foreign currency liquidity and weak earnings generation.

Union’s VR reflects a high NPL ratio compared with peers, tight foreign currency liquidity and modest, albeit improving, revenue generation. It also reflects pressure on regulatory capital ratios, which the bank intends to address by raising core capital.

Wema’s VR reflects the bank’s small franchise, modest earnings and profitability and still low capital buffers. It also reflects a lower proportion of foreign currency assets and liabilities than peers’, meaning it is less affected by current liquidity pressures.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR

The Support Ratings of ‘5’ and Support Rating Floors of ‘No Floor’ for all the banks reflect sovereign support is possible but cannot be relied upon.

Fitch said it believes that the Nigerian authorities retain a willingness to support the banks, but their ability to do so in foreign currency is weak due to Nigeria’s low foreign currency reserves and revenues. In addition, we have limited confidence that any available reserves will be used to support the banks rather than to execute other priority policy objectives.

FBNH’s Support Rating of ‘5’ also reflects Fitch’s view that the authorities retain a low propensity to provide support to bank holding companies that do not have significant senior obligations.

SENIOR AND SUBORDINATED DEBT

The senior debt ratings of Zenith, Access (issued via the bank and Access Finance BV), GTB (issued via GTB Finance BV), Diamond and Fidelity are in line with their respective Long-Term IDRs.

The subordinated debt ratings of FBN (issued via FBN Finance BV) and Access are rated one notch below their respective VRs to reflect higher-than-average loss severity for subordinated relative to senior debt. No additional notches for non-performance risk have been applied.

NATIONAL RATINGS

National Ratings reflect Fitch’s opinion of each bank’s creditworthiness relative to the best credit in the country. We have downgraded the National Ratings of FBN/FBNH and Diamond to reflect their weaker financial metrics relative to peers.

SIBTC’s and SIBTCH’s National Ratings are based on the probability of support from their parent, Standard Bank Group Limited (SBG; BBB-/Negative). SBG has a majority 53.2% stake in SIBTCH, which owns 100% of SIBTC. Fitch believes SBG’s support would extend equally to both the bank and the holding company.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

IDRS AND VRs

The IDRs are sensitive to rating action on the banks’ respective VRs. This is mostly likely to be triggered by further asset quality and capital deterioration as well as continued pressure on foreign-currency funding and liquidity.

FBN/FBNH’s and Diamond’s VRs face heightened sensitivity to a downgrade if asset quality, and therefore capitalisation, continues to deteriorate. For Diamond, additional weakening of its foreign currency liquidity position is also a rating sensitivity given its foreign currency refinancing risks.

Upside is limited for all banks’ VRs due to the difficult operating environment.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR

Upside to the SRs and SRFs of all banks is unlikely in the near term due to the recent downgrades and revisions (in November 2016). In the medium term, positive rating action could result from a significant improvement in the sovereign’s foreign-currency reserves and a significant improvement in foreign-currency liquidity in the system. It may also be triggered by clear evidence of timely extraordinary sovereign support for domestic banks, if required.

NATIONAL RATINGS

The banks’ National Ratings are sensitive to changes in their creditworthiness relative to other Nigerian entities. The National Ratings of SIBTC and SIBTCH are sensitive to a change in potential support (relating to both ability and propensity) from their ultimate parent, SBG. The National Ratings of SIBTCH and SIBTC could withstand a two-notch downgrade of SBG’s Long-Term IDR.

SENIOR AND SUBORDINATED DEBT

The senior debt ratings of Zenith, Access (issued via the bank and Access Finance BV), GTB (issued via GTB Finance BV), Diamond and Fidelity are sensitive to a change in their Long-Term IDRs.

The subordinated debt ratings of FBN (issued via FBN Finance BV) and Access are sensitive to a change in their VRs.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Banking

Coronation Merchant Bank Targets Top-Tier African Status in Next Growth Phase

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Coronation Merchant Bank Group1

By Adedapo Adesanya

Coronation Merchant Bank has set its sights on attaining top-tier status among African banks, leveraging a decade of operations and Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms to drive its next phase of growth across key sectors.

Speaking at the Chairman’s Dinner held to commemorate the bank’s 10th anniversary in Lagos, the chief executive of the lender, Mr Paul Abiagam, said the institution had successfully carved out a distinct niche in Nigeria’s highly competitive financial services market despite a decade defined by economic volatility, policy shifts and macroeconomic uncertainty.

“Over the last 10 years, we have found our own space in a very tight market and built credible footprints in the specific markets we chose to serve,” Mr Abiagam said.

Describing the bank’s journey as “valiant” amid the changing economic landscape, he said the anniversary represents both a moment of gratitude to the bank’s founder, shareholders, board and partners, and a recommitment to scale new heights in the decade ahead.

Mr Abiagam attributed the bank’s resilience and steady growth to strong shareholder and board support, as well as a clear and disciplined corporate strategy.

He noted that Coronation Merchant Bank’s focus on defined target markets had enabled it to expand its footprint across key sectors of the economy while maintaining operational clarity.

Looking ahead, the CEO said ongoing reforms and the Federal Government’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy present significant opportunities for financial institutions with the right expertise and positioning.

He identified infrastructure, construction, real estate, oil and gas, and manufacturing as priority sectors where the bank is already aligning its strategy.

“Volatility often comes with opportunity, What we see clearly is opportunity, and our strategy is to ensure we are well positioned to take advantage of it.” Mr Abiagam said.

Among the bank’s notable milestones, Mr Abiagam highlighted its international credit ratings, placing Coronation among a small group of internationally rated merchant banks in Nigeria.

He also pointed to human capital as a core strength, describing the bank’s people and talent as its greatest asset.

In his remarks, the Chairman of Coronation Merchant Bank, Mr Babatunde Folawiyo, reflected on the challenges of operating in Nigeria’s banking sector over the past decade, noting that the true measure of success lies in an institution’s ability to grow through uncertainty and emerge stronger.

“Anyone who has operated in Nigeria’s banking space over the last 10 years knows how challenging it has been,” Mr Folawiyo said, citing policy changes, macroeconomic shifts and leadership transitions. “The real test is whether you can grow through those challenges—and we have.”

Mr Folawiyo said recent reforms have introduced greater certainty into the economy, particularly in the foreign exchange market, which is critical for business planning and sustainable growth. While acknowledging that the adjustment period has been difficult, he stressed that predictability, even at higher exchange rates, is far more beneficial than extreme volatility.

“No business thrives without some level of stability. What hurts the economy most is wild and sudden swings. Predictability allows businesses to plan, adjust and grow,” he said.

On the outlook for the sector, Mr Folawiyo said Nigeria remains significantly underbanked, creating room for diverse players within the financial system. While technology and fintechs are expanding access to financial services, he emphasized the enduring role of specialized institutions such as merchant banks in serving corporate and structured finance needs.

“A corporate client structuring commercial papers or complex funding solutions needs more than a fintech app. It needs a bespoke, one-stop financial partner. That is where merchant banks like ours play a critical role,” the Chairman said.

He added that Coronation Merchant Bank’s strategy is anchored on long-term economic fundamentals rather than political cycles, noting that the current policy direction of the Central Bank and the Federal Government, though initially painful, aligns with sound economic principles.

“These are textbook reforms. There is no gain without pain, and we are already beginning to see the gains, not just in the financial sector but across the broader economy,” he added.

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Banking

S&P Forecasts 25% Credit Growth for Nigerian Banks in 2026

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Nigerian Banks

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian banks are expected to post stronger credit growth of up to 25 per cent in 2026 while retaining positive profitability, according to a new outlook by S&P Global Ratings.

In its Nigerian Banking Outlook 2026, S&P said improved lending to key sectors of the economy alongside resilient non-interest income would help banks absorb the impact of regulatory headwinds and easing interest rates.

The ratings agency projected credit growth of between 20 and 25 per cent in 2026, driven largely by increased investments in oil and gas, agriculture and manufacturing.

It added that the outlook for lending was supported by expectations of moderating inflation and gradual monetary easing, following recent interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

“We expect credit growth of about 20-25 per cent supported by investments in the oil and gas, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors. Although interest rates have started to decrease, profitability should stay resilient in 2026, supported by growth in non-interest income (NII) and lower provisions.

“We expect Nigerian banks to prove resilient and capable of preserving their profitability in 2026,” S&P said, noting that earnings would be supported by transaction driven fees, commissions and a still elevated cost of risk, even as margins come under pressure.

The ratings agency noted further that it expects nominal lending growth to remain high at about 25 per cent, supported largely by investments in the oil and gas sector, agriculture and manufacturing.

S&P said Nigerian banks would continue to benefit from rates that remain high relative to peers, supporting net interest margins while interest rates are expected to decline further in 2026.

“Although interest rates have started to decline, we expect rates to remain high relative to peers, which will continue to support banks’ net interest margins through 2026.

“We forecast the average return on equity (ROE) will normalise at 20-23 per cent in 2026 compared to 25 per cent estimated for 2025, while return on assets will decline marginally to 3.0-3.1 per cent from an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2025. Profitability will be supported by still high interest margins, growing NII, and slightly lower provisions, while capital issuance will increase the equity base leading to a lower ROE.

“Although interest rates have started to decline, we expect rates to be high relative to peers, which will continue to support the banks’ net interest margins through 2026. We forecast an average margin drop of about 50bps to 100bps in 2026, as banks’ margins will continue to benefit from higher yields on government securities and large recourse to low-cost customer deposits.”

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CBN Targets Reforms to Ease Compliance Burdens on Fintech Firms

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fintech innovators

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

To ease regulatory compliance burdens on financial technology (fintech) companies, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is considering some strategic reforms through a policy known as the Single Regulatory Window.

In its 2025 Fintech Report, the central bank said this scheme will significantly reduce time-to-market for new digital financial products by streamlining licensing and supervisory processes across multiple agencies.

The CBN said there would be a shared regulatory infrastructure in form of a Compliance-as-a-Service model to cut down duplicative reporting, ease the burden on regulated fintechs, and enhance supervisory visibility.

The apex bank said it came up with this idea after being aware of some challenges stakeholders, especially operators, go through in the ecosystem.

The bank said fintech firms remain a critical leg in its financial inclusion drive in Nigeria and must be supported to expand their operations to achieve the goal.

The CBN report showed that 62.5 per cent of fintech firms lamented how regulatory timelines materially affect product rollouts, while over one-third noted that it takes more than 12 months to bring a new product to market, largely due to compliance bottlenecks.

“Stakeholders cited delays in approvals and ambiguity in regulatory guidelines as their most pressing concerns,” a part of the report disclosed.

The report recommended “exploring models for a Single Regulatory Window to simplify multi-agency compliance processes and reduce time-to-market.”

It was also suggested that to address the issues, the bank must review “approval timelines and operational guidelines.”

In addition, the central bank was advised to either review the PSB framework or introduce a dedicated digital banking licence that would enable inclusive lending under stronger prudential oversight.

“A dedicated digital bank licence may be a more effective pathway for inclusive lending than expanding the PSB mandate,” the respondents suggested.

As for digital assets, the CBN signalled a shift towards a more nuanced regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, balancing innovation with financial integrity rather than imposing blanket restrictions, as fintechs acknowledged crypto’s potential to drive cost-effective cross-border transactions and strengthen remittance channels, while also warning of risks linked to illicit flows and consumer protection.

“There was broad agreement on the need for a risk-based, activity-focused regulatory framework,” the report stated, adding that regulators must avoid equating all crypto activity with criminality, especially as many scams originate offshore.

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