Economy
Border Closure to Push Inflation to 11.32%—Analysts
By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at Meristem Research have projected that inflation rate in Nigeria for the month of October 2019 will increase to 11.32 percent from 11.24 percent recorded in September, indicating a year-on-year 0.08 percent rise.
The firm said one of the major factors to cause this increase in inflation rate is the closure of land borders since August 2019, which has caused prices of food items to significantly moved up.
In its inflation report, Meristem Research noted that decline in prices of food items in August 2019 was caused by the harvest season, but things changed when federal government closed the country’s borders, which had impact on commodity prices, triggering a 0.22 percent uptick in inflation in September.
“Data from our most recent survey of commodity and food prices suggests a significant expansion in the prices of staples such as rice, poultry and oil in October.
“Just before announcement of the border closure in August, a 50kg bag of rice retailed for c.N12,000. As the full effect of the closure set in, prices surged by between 75.00 percent and 100.00 percent to N21,000 and NGN24,000 per bag,” the report said.
Continuing, it said, “Poultry products (chicken and turkey) and oils have also recorded average price expansions of 33.00 percent and 17.00 percent respectively over the same period.
“Combined, these items formed the strongest inflationary pressure points, as prices of other local staples remained relatively stable.”
Analysts at Meristem Research said the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also supports the view that inflationary pressures are building as the index for last month rose from 57.7 in September to 58.2.
“We envisage that the imminent upward review in energy tariffs and extension of the border closure period to January 31, 2020 should sustain pressure on the CPI in the near term,” it said.
On the global scene, the Food Price Index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ticked up by 5.97 percent year-on-year in October for the third consecutive month largely due to higher meat (+13.87 percent), dairy (+5.58 percent) and oils (+2.64%) prices.
“While this should ordinarily portend intensified inflationary pressures, owing to Nigeria’s large food import bill, the closure of the country’s land borders has emerged as the major upside risk to inflation,” the report said.
Concluding, Meristem Research said, “Following our evaluation of primary inflationary triggers in the economy, we forecast that headline inflation will tick up by 0.08 percent YoY, to 11.32 percent for October 2019.”
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited reversed the gains of the previous trading session to plunge by 0.35 per cent on Wednesday.
This was triggered by profit-taking from investors who chew on the 0.25 per cent interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Tuesday. The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is currently at 27.50 per cent and the inflation for October stands at 33.88 per cent.
Business Post reports that the selling pressure was visible seen in the consumer goods sector, which went down by 0.34 per cent yesterday, erasing the gains recorded by the others.
The insurance index appreciated by 1.24 per cent, the energy counter improved by 1.02 per cent, the banking space jumped by 0.14 per cent, and the industrial goods sector gained 0.02 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 348.31 points to 97,296.57 points from 97,639.88 points and the market capitalisation declined by N208 billion to N58.970 trillion from N59.178 trillion.
Investor sentiment was weak at midweek after Customs Street ended with 23 price gainers and 26 price losers, representing a negative market breadth index.
John Holt lost 10.00 per cent to finish at N9.90, Aradel Holdings declined by 9.98 per cent to N473.30, Eterna slumped by 9.88 per cent to N22.35, Haldane McCall shed 8.43 per cent to N5.65, and UPDC crumbled by 8.13 per cent to N1.47.
On the flip side, Sunu Assurances gained 9.97 per cent to trade at N4.19, Guinea Insurance grew by 8.16 per cent to 53 Kobo, Conoil rose by 6.56 per cent to N276.00, DAAR Communications expanded by 6.56 per cent to 65 Kobo, and NASCON improved by 6.23 per cent to N32.40.
A total of 822.5 million equities valued at N10.3 billion were traded in 9,385 deals on Wednesday compared with the 552.1 million equities worth N8.0 billion transacted in 9,305 deals on Tuesday, indicating an increase in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 48.98 per cent, 28.75 per cent, and 0.86 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock for the session was Haldane McCall, which sold 373.7 million units for N2.2 billion, Japaul transacted 115.9 million units worth N285.5 million, Tantalizers traded 30.7 million units valued at N34.9 million, UBA exchanged 29.4 million units worth N930.1 million, and GTCO transacted 28.8 million units valued at N1.5 billion.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Dangote Refinery located in the Lekki area of Lagos State has been described as a game-changer for Nigeria’s economy because of its significance to the country’s sustainable growth.
This was the view of the Ogun State Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (OGUNCCIMA) through its president, Mr Niyi Oshiyemi.
“The Dangote Refinery is a game-changer for Nigeria’s economy. With a capacity to refine 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily, it has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products, conserved foreign exchange, and fortified our energy security.
“This milestone reinforces the critical role the private sector plays in national development,” Mr Oshinyemi said, noting that, “The refinery’s operations have created employment for Nigerians at all levels while fostering technology transfer and skills acquisition. This has strengthened local businesses and equipped them with the tools to compete in domestic and global markets.”
The emphasis on local content has been a cornerstone of Dangote Refinery’s strategy. By sourcing materials locally and partnering with indigenous companies, the refinery has supported the growth of Nigerian enterprises and encouraged investments in infrastructure, engineering, and technology.
The ripple effects of the Dangote Refinery extend beyond the energy sector. Its presence has catalyzed industrialization by attracting investments in related sectors such as petrochemicals, manufacturing, and transportation. This multiplier effect has significantly expanded Nigeria’s industrial base and enhanced the nation’s economic competitiveness.
“This refinery is a shining example of what can be achieved through visionary leadership and investment in strategic sectors. It demonstrates Africa’s potential to compete globally and foster regional integration,” Mr Oshiyemi remarked.
In addition to its economic contributions, Dangote Refinery has maintained a strong commitment to corporate social responsibility. The Dangote Group’s investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure have improved the quality of life for many Nigerians and strengthened community resilience.
“Dangote Refinery exemplifies the role of private sector enterprises in driving social progress alongside economic development. Its initiatives in healthcare and education are building a brighter future for Nigerians,” the OGUNCCIMA chief noted.
He urged stakeholders across public and private sectors to emulate the Dangote Refinery’s innovative approach to development. By fostering partnerships and investing in transformative projects, Nigeria can achieve sustainable economic growth and reduce its reliance on external resources.
“This refinery stands as a model for what is possible when the private sector leads with vision and commitment. We call on all stakeholders to collaborate and replicate such success stories to build a resilient, self-reliant, and prosperous Nigeria,” Mr Oshiyemi concluded.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the next three years (2025-2027).
In passing the MTEF, the lower chamber’s committees on Finance, Petroleum Upstream, and Petroleum Downstream were tasked to investigate reports from the Revenue Mobilization, Allocation, and Fiscal Responsibility Commission (RMAFC) alleging that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited’s withheld N8.48 trillion as claimed subsidies for petrol.
Additionally, the investigation will address the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) report that claimed the NNPC failed to remit $2 billion (N3.6 trillion) in taxes to the federal government.
The committees were further directed to verify the total cumulative amount of unremitted revenue (under-recovery) from the sale of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) by the NNPC between 2020 and 2023.
Some of the recommendations in the MTEF as adopted by the house are; that the projected oil benchmark prices are $75, $76.2 and $75.3 per barrel in 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Three-year projections for domestic crude oil production are 2.06 million barrels per day, 2.10 million barrels per day and 2.35 million barrels per day for the subsequent years of 2025, 2026 and 2027.
The country’s economic growth rate forecast, measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) was put at 4.6 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 5.5 per cent for the years 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively.
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