Economy
COVID-19 Second Wave Scare to Impact Oil Prices This Week
By Adedapo Adesanya
Price of crude oil will likely decline this week as a possible second wave of coronavirus spread across Asia is spurring fresh lockdowns, which will only worsen demand and likely increase oversupply with more output expected from oil producers from next week.
Demand has been unstable for the past few weeks despite the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies having optimistic projections for world oil demand to recover during the second half of 2020 and into 2021.
Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipate global oil demand to increase in the months ahead as well.
In China, infections not involving people returning from overseas hit the highest number since early March, with a total of 57 domestic transmissions reported out of 61 new cases.
According to reports, in the northeast city of Liaoning province, there was a fifth straight day of new infections and Jilin province reported two new cases, its first since late May.
Hong Kong is also expected to announce further restrictions this week including a ban on restaurant dining and mandated face masks outdoors.
This aligns with other countries like Australia as authorities warned a six-week lockdown in parts of south-eastern Victoria state may last long after the country registered its highest daily increase in infections.
In Japan, the government said it would urge businesses to increase telecommuting and enhance other social distancing measures amid a rise in coronavirus cases among workers. A record surge in cases during the past week in Tokyo and other urban centres has experts worried the country faces a second wave.
Last week, prices were pressured by escalating tensions between the United States and China but turned higher after a Euro Zone report lifted market sentiment. Euro Zone business activity grew in July for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic hit.
The reports showed the economy improved from June, but they came in lower than the forecast, which suggested the economic recovery may be slower than previously expected, which was not able to sustain the gains.
On the US-China front, tension may continue well into this week after China retaliated a US -closure of its consulate by ordering a counter-closure. The market will be on alert to the next line of action that might be taken by either side.
Still, Brent is on track for a fourth straight monthly gain in July while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is set to rise for a third month due to the supply cuts from OPEC+ which has served its purpose to prop up prices.
However, investors are also watching for any impact from storm Hanna which battered the Texas coast over the weekend, threatening heavy rains in Texas and Mexico. Oil and gas producers and refiners said that they did not expect the storm to affect operations.
As at the time of this report, Brent crude was down by 28 cents or 0.67 per cent to $43.05 a barrel, while the WTI crude was at $41.04 a barrel, down by 25 cents or 0.61 per cent.
Economy
Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.
Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.
At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.
In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.
Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.
“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”
The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.
Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.
He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.
“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.
Economy
PenCom Extends Deadline for Pension Recapitalisation to June 2027
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The deadline for the recapitalisation of the Nigerian pension industry has been extended by six months to June 2027 from December 2026.
This extension was approved by the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the agency, which regulates the sector in the country.
Addressing newsmen on Thursday in Lagos, the Director-General of PenCom, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, explained that the shift in deadline was to give operators more time to boost the capital base, dismissing speculations that the exercise had been suspended.
“The recapitalisation has not been suspended. We have communicated the requirements to the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), and we expect every operator to be compliant by June 2027. Anyone who is not compliant by then will lose their licence,” Ms Oloworaran told journalists.
She added that, “From a regulatory standpoint, our major challenge is ensuring compliance. We are working with ICPC, labour and the TUC to ensure employers remit pension contributions for their employees.”
The DG noted that engagements with industry operators indicated broad acceptance of the policy, with many PFAs already taking steps to raise additional capital or explore mergers and acquisitions.
“You may see some mergers and acquisitions in the industry, but what is clear is that the recapitalisation exercise is on track and the industry agrees with us,” she stated.
PenCom wants the PFAs to increase their capital base and has created three categories, with the first consists operators with Assets Under Management of N500 billion and above. They are expected to have a minimum capital of N20 billion and one per cent of AUM above N500 billion.
The second category has PFAs with AUM below N500 billion, which must have at least N20 billion as capital base.
The last segment comprises special-purpose PFAs such as NPF Pensions Limited, whose minimum capital was pegged at N30 billion, and the Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited, whose minimum capital was fixed at N20 billion.
Economy
Three Securities Sink NASD Exchange by 0.68%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Thursday, December 18.
According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc led the losers’ group after it slipped by N2.87 to N36.78 per share from N39.65 per share, Golden Capital Plc depreciated by 77 Kobo to end at N6.98 per unit versus the previous day’s N7.77 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped 19 Kobo to sell at N60.00 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N60.19 per share.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation lost N16.81 billion to finish at N2.147 billion compared with the preceding session’s N2.164 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 24.76 points to 3,589.88 points from 3,614.64 points.
Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold increased by 49.3 per cent to 30.5 million units from 20.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 211.8 per cent to N225.1 million from N72.2 million, and the number of deals jumped by 33.3 per cent to 28 deals from 21 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
Similarly, InfraCredit Plc ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units exchanged for N524.9 million.
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