Economy
Crude Closes 2020 Positive Despite COVID-19, Price Crash Impacts
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices ended the year 2020 on a positive note, in a year marred by the coronavirus pandemic and an oil price crash.
On Thursday, the Brent crude gained 17 cents or 0.33 per cent to sell at $51.80 per barrel, while the United States’ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 7 cents or 0.18 per cent to trade at $48.42 per barrel.
Futures might have ended 2020 on a positive note but they suffered a hefty yearly fall, only partially recovering from the hit to crude demand from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Brent, according to market analysis, fell 21.5 per cent for the year, its largest annual drop since 2015 while the WTI fell 20.5 per cent in 2020, its second annual fall in three years.
In terms of month and quarter, Brent crude rose 8.9 per cent in December and 26.5 per cent in the final quarter of the year while WTI saw a 7 per cent rise in December and gained more than 20 per cent for the fourth quarter.
Oil prices were hit during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and this was worsened as Saudi Arabia and Russia engaged in a price war that flooded the world with oil, dropping prices to unprecedented levels.
However, efforts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) in curbing production excesses helped the market recover a little after instituting a record cut that took away 10 per cent of global supply. This was later tapered in batches with output level expected to rise from January 1.
OPEC+ will meet on Monday and is likely to further relax its output curbs, adding another 500,000 barrels a day to global supply.
Business Post reported that crude was buoyed Wednesday by a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories, as well as weakness in the US dollar.
Crude oil inventories decreased by 1.2 per cent for the week ending December 25, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 493.5 million barrels, more than the market expectation of a fall of 2.1 million barrels.
A weaker dollar is typically seen as a positive for commodities priced in the US unit, making them cheaper to buyers using other currencies. Expectations for a lower trend for the dollar have boosted expectations among bulls for further gains for crude and other commodities in 2021.
Next year, there are expectations that oil demand will rebound more slowly than initially anticipated as the aviation sector takes longer to recover from the coronavirus hit.
Global consumption is expected to come in at 96.9 million barrels a day next year which is up from the 91.2 million barrels per day forecast for 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
On its part, OPEC final 2020 oil demand forecast stood at 9.8 million barrels per day lower than 2019 and projects oil demand to bounce back by 6.2 million barrels per day in 2021.
By Dipo Olowookere
About 0.04 per cent was recovered on Friday from the loss recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) the previous due to profit-taking.
Yesterday, investors were in the market with renewed vigour, mopping up stocks trading at relatively cheaper prices.
According to data, the insurance counter gained 0.41 per cent, the banking sector appreciated by 0.38 per cent, and the consumer goods index grew by 0.14 per cent.
The gains achieved by these three sectors were enough to lift Customs Street at the close of business despite the 0.26 per cent decline printed by the industrial goods segment and the 0.14 per cent loss suffered by the energy industry. The commodity counter was flat during the session.
A total of 43 equities gained weight on the last trading day of this week, while 26 equities shed weight, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Red Star Express increased its share price by 10.00 per cent to N13.20, NCR Nigeria grew by 9.97 per cent to N128.55, SCOA Nigeria inflated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, Omatek appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N1.77, and Deap Capital expanded by 9.85 per cent to N4.46.
On the flip side, McNichols decreased by 8.81 per cent to N6.00, Legend Internet crumbled by 7.56 per cent to N5.50, Cornerstone Insurance crashed by 6.48 per cent to N6.35, C&I Leasing contracted by 6.29 per cent to N8.20, and Austin Laz slipped by 5.78 per cent to N3.75.
Yesterday, 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion were transacted in 48,023 deals versus the 1.0 billion shares worth N31.6 billion executed in 51,227 deals in the preceding day, implying a shrink in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 46.01 per cent, 47.15 per cent, and 6.26 per cent apiece.
Zenith Bank was the most active for the day with 54.6 million stocks sold for N3.8 billion, Jaiz Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N359.4 million, Secure Electronic Technology transacted 37.7 million units valued at N39.2 million, Access Holdings exchanged 30.5 million units for N699.2 million, and Lasaco Assurance transacted 27.2 million units worth N68.3 million.
When the market closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 72.21 points to 166,129.50 points from 166,057.29 points and the market capitalisation gained N31 billion to N106.354 trillion from N106.323 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was a positive ending for the Naira this week after it further appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 16 by N1.33 or 0.09 per cent to sell for N1,417.95/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,419.28/$1.
The domestic currency also gained N2.41 against the Euro in the official market to close at N1,647.51/€1 versus the preceding session’s closing price of N1,649.92/€1, however, it suffered a N7.97 loss against the Pound Sterling in the same market window to trade at N1,901.32/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,893.35/£1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to quote at N1,427/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,425/$1, but strengthened against the greenback at the black market yesterday by N5 to settle at N1,485/$1 versus the N1,490/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
Improved supply conditions helped keep the market within range as exporters’ and importers’ inflows in addition to non-bank corporate supply enhanced liquidity as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made no visible intervention.
Stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and improving current account dynamics, continue to align with structural support in the wider economy.
Nigeria has seen projections of a stronger economic or gross domestic product (GDP) growth and lower inflation in 2026, with these forecasts citing improved macroeconomic fundamentals and reform impacts.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was mixed following selloff in precious metals and lower US stocks appeared to be denting crypto sentiment.
Gold and silver, both of which also enjoyed big rallies earlier this week, tumbled 1.2 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively while key US stock indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average — all reversed from early gains to modest losses in Friday trade.
Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 2.2 per cent to $0.1370, Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.8 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.7 per cent to $3,228.56, and Bitcoin (BTC) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $95,086.80.
Conversely, Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $74.48, Solana (SOL) rose by 0.4 per cent to $143.70, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 0.2 per cent to $0.3942, and Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.1 per cent to $935.88, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher amid lingering worries about a possible US military strike against Iran, a decision that may still occur over the weekend.
Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel after going up by 37 cents or 0.58 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $59.44 a barrel after it gained 25 cents or 0.42 per cent.
The US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea.
Market analysts noted that it doesn’t seem likely anything will happen soon. However, the weekends have become the perfect time for actions so as not offset the markets.
The market had risen after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4 per cent on Thursday as the American president said Iran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 4 per cent of global crude production, so it was not a coincidence that markets rallied sharply through Tuesday and Wednesday as President Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and posted that “help is on its way” to Iranian protesters, raising fears of potential US military strikes that sent prices surging toward multi-month highs.
Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela.
The Trump administration is exploring plans to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for US medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns, since not all all oil belongs in the reserve.
According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while US producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange.
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
Some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the US.
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