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Crude Oil Dips as Investors Weigh Supply Expectations After OPEC+ Moves

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Utapate crude oil blend

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil fell on Thursday as investors weighed the supply outlook after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) delayed its planned output increase by three months to April 2025, with Brent going down by 22 cents or 0.3 per cent to trade at $72.09 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) depleting by 24 cents or 0.35 per cent to finish at $68.30 a barrel.

OPEC+ had been planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024 and after a meeting on Thursday, it agreed to extend the 2 million barrels per day and the 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts until the end of 2026 from the end of 2025 respectively.

Under its formal output strategy, the broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day until December 31, 2026, after previously only applying this quota throughout 2025.

Eight OPEC+ members will now extend their 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September 2026.

The alliance pumps around half of the world’s supply, but market analysts noted that the market is facing a surplus from non-OPEC producers.

So, while there is no shortage of oil, there is no positive sign of what to look forward to in the future to rally prices.

Cooling US Dollar provided some some support for oil prices, as it makes prices cheaper for holders of other currencies.

There are high expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, a move that will further ease the Dollar’s strength and support the oil market.

Market analysts also warned that the oil market will now shift focus to the actions of US President-elect Donald Trump, who when he takes office on January 20, could impose new sanctions on Iran, and tariffs on China and has pledged an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Israel said on Tuesday it would return to war with Hezbollah if their ceasefire collapses and its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has travelled to Qatar and Israel to kick-start the US president-elect’s diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Customs Street Down 0.24% Amid Selling Spree by Investors

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Lagos Customs Street stock exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

Customs Street came under massive sell-offs on Tuesday, triggered by the rebalancing of portfolios by investors, leading to a 0.24 per cent decline at the close of business.

None of the five major market segments ended in the green territory during the trading session as the closest, the industrial goods space, closed flat.

The insurance counter depreciated by 7.68 per cent, the banking index shrank by 0.64 per cent, the consumer goods sector tumbled by 0.38 per cent, and the energy counter declined by 0.10 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) plunged by 249.42 points to 103,398.82 points from 103,648.24 points and the market capitalisation tumbled by N153 billion to close at N63.051 trillion compared with the previous day’s N63.204 trillion.

Business Post reports that investor sentiment turned bearish yesterday as a result of profit-taking, resulting in a negative market breadth index after the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited recorded 19 price gainers and 51 price losers.

FTN Cocoa, RT Briscoe, and Veritas Kapital lost 10.00 per cent each to trade at N1.80, N2.70, and N1.53, respectively, as Sunu Assurances shed 9.98 per cent to quote at N10.01, and Cornerstone Insurance also waned by 9.98 per cent to N4.15.

The duo of PZ Cussons and Abbey Mortgage Bank gained 10.00 per cent each to settle at N27.50, and N3.63, Learn Africa improved by 9.90 per cent to N5.44, NCR Nigeria jumped by 9.77 per cent to N7.30, and NGX Group soared by 9.72 per cent to N29.90.

Yesterday, investors bought and sold 1.1 billion shares worth N14.6 billion in 16,617 deals versus the 856.0 million shares valued at N13.3 billion traded in 16,505 deals on Monday, representing a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 29.94 per cent, 9.77 per cent, and 0.68 per cent, respectively.

The activity chart was led by FBN Holdings with 161.5 million equities worth N4.7 billion, AIICO Insurance exchange 120.7 million shares valued at N225.4 million, Tantalizers traded 104.8 million stocks for N267.4 million, Universal Insurance transacted 93.8 million shares valued at N78.1 million, and Regency Alliance sold 47.3 million equities worth N44.6 million.

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Economy

Crude-For-Naira: Dangote Refinery Gets 395,000bpd Supply

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NNPC vs Dangote refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

About 395,000 barrels per day of crude oil were delivered to the Dangote Refinery in December under the crude-for-Naira deal with the federal government through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

The volume of black gold supplied to the Lagos-based facility was 40 per cent higher than the 280,000 barrels per day delivered in November.

According to a report from Argus, the crude receipts at the 650,000 barrels per day capacity Dangote refinery rose to a new high in December.

It gathered the data from its tracking systems as well as from Kpler and Vortexa data.

The report said that this was the fourth consecutive month that crude deliveries were all Nigerian and did not include any US WTI.

Deliveries of WTI had been anticipated in December, but did not materialise.

The Dangote Group said it is aiming for 350,000 barrels per day throughput in a first phase of operations.

It had achieved this mark in June as receipts hit 350,000 barrels per day but fell back after that. Since March, when crude delivery began to increase, estimated receipts have averaged a little under 275,000 barrels per day.

Recall that Dangote Refinery had bought some foreign cargoes when NNPC could not adequately supply it with the needed resources.

In July, President Bola Tinubu directed the NNPC to commence sales of crude oil in Naira to local private refiners as part of efforts to boost domestic capacity and reduce foreign exchange pressure on the economy.

Last month’s receipts included cargoes of Nigerian grades Escravos, Bonny Light, CJ Blend, Qua Iboe, and Erha.

Bonny Light was the largest single grade at 140,000 barrels per day.

It was disclosed that three deliveries on very large crude carriers (VLCC) helped boost receipts in the review month.

Argus added that no cargoes of Forcados or Amenam were delivered to Dangote last month, having previously been regular grades at the refinery.

Dangote Group is also maintaining a very consistent slate in terms of gravity and especially sulphur content.

Argus assessed Dangote’s December slate at a weighted average gravity of 36.3°API and under 0.2 per cent sulphur content, compared with 36.4°API and under 0.2 per cent sulphur in November. In March-December, the slate averaged 36.3°API and again, under 0.2 per cent sulphur.

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Economy

Seplat Targets Oil Production of 120,000bpd in Six Months

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Seplat Energy

By Adedapo Adesanya

Seplat Energy plans to increase its crude oil production by 140 per cent from about 50,000 barrels a day to roughly 120,000 barrels per day over the next six months, a top executive management disclosed this in a series of interviews with the Financial Times.

Recall that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October 2024 approved Seplat’s acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil as part of a series of approvals.

The completion of the $1.28 billion Seplat-ExxonMobil deal has created Nigeria’s leading independent energy company, with the enlarged company having equity in 11 blocks (onshore and shallow water Nigeria); 48 producing oil and gas fields; 5 gas processing facilities; and 3 export terminals.

The acquisition of the entire issued share capital of MPNU adds the following assets to the Seplat Group: 40 per cent operated interest in OML 67, 68, 70 and 104; 40 per cent operated interest in the Qua Iboe export terminal and the Yoho FSO; 51 per cent operated interest in the Bonny River Terminal (‘BRT’) NGL recovery plant; 9.6 per cent participating interest in the Aneman-Kpono field; and approximately 1,000 staff and 500 contractors will transition to the Seplat Group.

“The assets have had very minimal investments until now,” the oil major’s chief financial officer, Mrs Eleanor Adaralegbe, told the newspaper.

“We expect that once we come in there will be an opportunity to grow that much further,” she added.

The company also plans to revive hundreds of Nigerian oil wells laying fallow, which according to Seplat’s chief executive, Mr Roger Brown, will be done in a collaborative effort with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited as legally mandated in the country’s oil and gas industry.

“We have no concerns working with NNPC . . . There’s been a massive change with President Tinubu, realising that production is a great way of getting dollars into the country and supporting the currency,” Mr Brown said.

This was backed up by Seplat’s chief operating officer, Mr Samson Ezugworie, who noted that some of the assets will require time and investment so they can begin to produce again after being left idle.

“We have over 600 wells drilled and barely 200 of them are producing. We have significant idle wells that need to be rejuvenated and brought back into production within a short period of time.”

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