Economy
Crude Oil Drops 1% on US Recession Warnings
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil fell by about 1 per cent on Wednesday as possible US recession outweighed optimism that China’s lifting of COVID-19 curbs will fuel demand for crude in the world’s top oil importer.
Brent crude went down by 94 cents or 1.1 per cent to settle at $84.98 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude depreciated by 70 cents or 0.9 per cent to trade at 79.48 per barrel.
Fear came into the market after comments from US Federal Reserve officials sparked worries that the country’s central bank may not pause interest rate hikes any time soon.
St. Louis Fed President, Mr James Bullard, and Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, said rates needed to rise beyond 5 per cent to control inflation in the world’s largest economy.
This took out gains expected as data showed retail sales and manufacturing production declined more than forecast in December, on hopes the Fed would now ease up on interest rate hikes.
It also overshadowed support that came from China as the world’s second-largest economy reported positive data that beat forecasts after the country started rolling back its zero-COVID policy in early December.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that China’s reopening is set to drive global oil demand to a record high of 101.7 million barrels per day this year, up by 1.9 million barrels per day from 2022.
The Paris-based agency raised its demand growth estimate for 2023 by 200,000 barrels per day from 1.7 million barrels per day growth expected in December.
Almost half of the oil demand growth this year will come from China after the country lifted its COVID-19 restrictions, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) for January.
At the same time, world oil supply growth in 2023 is set to slow to 1 million barrels per day, following last year’s growth of 4.7 million barrels per day led by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+.
It also warned that the European Union (EU) ban on Russian oil products from February 5 could soon mean that “the well-supplied oil balance at the start of 2023 could quickly tighten, however, as western sanctions impact Russian exports.”
Crude inventories figure from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published on Thursday as it was delayed a day due to Monday’s Martin Luther King Day federal holiday.
Economy
Crude Oil Slumps Amid Hopes of Strait of Hormuz Reopening
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil plummeted on Wednesday on hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
Brent crude futures moderated to $94.75 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased to $94.41 a barrel.
President Trump said on Wednesday that the US will work closely with Iran and will be talking about tariff and sanctions relief with Iran.
However, analysts cautioned that the ceasefire is a temporary two-week reprieve rather than a permanent resolution, and the global energy system remains fragile due to structural damage to regional infrastructure.
Reuters reported that Iran could open the strait in a limited and controlled way on Thursday or Friday ahead of a meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan.
Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that two ships appeared to have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran ceasefire deal. A Greek-owned bulk carrier and a Liberia-flagged vessel both transited the waterway early on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Israel carried out its heaviest strikes on Lebanon since the conflict with Hezbollah broke out last month, even as the Iran-aligned group paused attacks on northern Israel and Israeli troops in Lebanon under the ceasefire.
Also, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical artery bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, was reportedly hit in an Iranian drone attack. Prior to the attack, the pipeline was pumping at its emergency capacity of 7 million barrels per day to bypass the shuttered strait.
The strikes occurred just hours after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which has so far failed to halt regional hostilities. Other facilities in the kingdom were also targeted in the wave of strikes, which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed included oil facilities owned by American companies in Yanbu.
US crude stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels during the week ended April 3, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
Economy
Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.
In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.
Recall that on August 5, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed into law the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act ( NIIRA 2025).
This landmark legislation repeals the Insurance Act 2003, and consolidates related provisions, ushering in a modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.
The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.
According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.
NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.
“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”
Economy
Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.
The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.
The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.
This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.
“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.
Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.
While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.
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