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Crude Oil Loses 4% Ahead of Next Week’s OPEC Meeting

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opec oil output

By Adedapo Adesanya 

Prices of crude oil went down by more than 4 percent at the international market on Friday as a result of reports which fuelled doubt that the extension on production cut that is expected to be made at next week’s meeting of the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) may not follow through.

As a result of this, major futures depreciated from gains gathered during the month of November. By implication, Brent crude, the international benchmark which traded up to $64 during the week, fell by 4.39 percent as it shed $2.78 to trade at $60.49 per barrel.

Likewise, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 4.63 percent equivalent to $2.69 to close at $55.42 per barrel.

The report from Bloomberg suggested that Saudi Arabia will probably indicate that it’s no longer willing to compensate for excessive production by other members of OPEC.

It is to be recalled that the oil cartel and its allies, including Russia, had earlier in the year agreed to cut combined oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day that will run till March 2020.

The oil market had looked at expectations for the group to possibly extend production cut agreements beyond March to June 2020 when the body meets in Vienna on December 5 and 6 and this had driven oil prices to their highest since September following the attacks on the Aramco oil fields.

Also, contributing to this state of oil was the resignation announcement by Iraq’s prime minister after weeks of deadly protests that had seen oil prices gain, with this, oil may remain bearish.

On the trade deal front, the move by the US President Trump to sign into law the Human Rights and Democracy Act in favor of Hong Kong did not sit well China and this may cause a stir for a market that has been influenced by the actions of the sixteen-month long war between the world’s largest economy.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Naira Firms to N1,548/$1 at Official Market, Tumbles at Black Market

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Black Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira recovered about 0.26 per cent or N3.99 against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, January 23 after coming under pressure in recent times.

During the session, the exchange rate of the local currency to its American counterpart closed at N1,548.59/$1 in the official market compared with the previous day’s N1,552.58/$1.

Also, against the Pound Sterling, the domestic currency gained N3.32 yesterday to trade at N1,912.21/£1 compared with Wednesday’s value of N1,915.53/£1 and on the Euro, it improved by N3.82 to sell for N1,617.72/€1 versus N1,613.89/€1.

The forex market may be reacting positively to news that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would launch a FX Code, which will serve as a guideline to the banking industry to promote ethical conduct of Authorised Dealers in the Nigerian FX market, next week.

The code will further reduce speculative activities, eliminate market distortions, and give the CBN improved oversight capabilities to effectively regulate the market.

The bank noted that authorised dealers would subsequently conduct all FX transactions in the interbank FX market on the EFEMS approved by the apex bank where transactions will be reflected immediately.

However, in the black market segment, the Nigerian Naira lost N5 against the greenback during the session to quote at N1,665/$1, in contrast to midweek’s rate of N1,660/$1.

As for the cryptocurrency market, it was lively yesterday as attention is increasingly centered on potential policy developments under the government of President Donald Trump of the US.

On Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order to ban the digital dollar and promote crypto and AI innovation in the country.

Meanwhile, the US data released recently showed the “all tenant rent” index, which leads the shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose at a slower pace last quarter. That has raised hopes that the US Federal Reserve will walk back on its hawkish December rate forecasts.

These helped Ethereum (ETH) gain 5.4 per cent on Thursday to sell at $3,394.79, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 4.4 per cent to $260.86, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 2.9 per cent to $1.00, and Litecoin (LTC) expanded by 2.6 per cent to $116.78.

Further, Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.1 per cent to $1o4,978.31, Ripple (XRP) leapt by 0.7 per cent to $3.16, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased by 0.6 per cent to $0.3572, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 1.6 per cent to $710.31, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Brent, WTI Dip as Trump Urges OPEC to Lower Prices

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west texas intermediate WTI crude

By Adedapo Adesanya

The global crude oil market waned on Thursday after the US President, Mr Donald Trump, urged the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries  (OPEC) to bring down the cost of the commodity during his address at the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Brent crude futures lost 71 cents or 0.9 per cent after the speech to close at $78.29 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) crude futures contracted by 82 cents or 1.09 per cent to $74.62 per barrel.

At WEF in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump announced he would ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.

Since he took office, the uncertainty over how Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies would affect global economic growth and energy demand have weighed on prices.

He threatened to add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war with Ukraine.

He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25 per cent tariffs against Canada and Mexico.

On China, Mr Trump said his administration was discussing a 10 per cent punitive duty because fentanyl is being sent from there to the US.

On Monday, he declared a national energy emergency intended to provide him with the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects; and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline infrastructure.

Market analysts say there will be more potential for a downward choppy movement in the oil market in the near term due to the Trump administration’s lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy and the impending higher oil supplies from the US.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory dip of 1 million barrels for the week to January 17. In fuels, the EIA estimated mixed changes.

The change in crude inventories compared with a draw of 2 million barrels for the previous week, which also saw another round of sizable builds in fuels.

This contradicts forecasts by the American Petroleum Institute (API) which showed that on the US oil inventory front, crude stocks rose by 958,000 barrels in the week ending January 17 and added that gasoline (petrol) inventories rose by 3.23 million barrels and distillate stocks climbed by 1.88 million barrels, they said.

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Economy

NGX All-Share Index Tumbles 0.05% as Investors Recalibrate Portfolios

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All-Share Index

By Dipo Olowookere

The recalibration of portfolios by investors further depressed the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Thursday by 0.05 per cent in the absence of a positive trigger.

Amid the profit-taking, the banking space continued to witness bargain-hunting during the session, rising at the close of business by 1.04 per cent.

However, sell-offs crushed the insurance sector by 1.23 per cent, the consumer goods index depreciated by 0.81 per cent, and the energy sector lost 0.36 per cent, while the industrial goods counter closed flat.

As result, the All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated by 47.93 points to 102,788.20 points from 102,836.13 points and the market capitalisation gained N1 billion to close at N63.148 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N63.147 trillion.

Like the previous session, the market breadth index was flat after the bourse ended with 28 price gainers and 28 price losers.

Morison Industries depleted by 9.98 per cent to N3.61, C&I Leasing slumped by 9.91 per cent to N3.91, Ikeja Hotel crashed by 8.89 per cent to N12.30, Neimeth went down by 8.51 per cent to N3.44, and Sunu Assurance shed 8.03 per cent to settle at N5.50.

But SCOA Nigeria gained 9.76 per cent to sell for N3.60, DAAR Communications increased by 9.09 per cent to 84 Kobo, May and Baker jumped by 8.43 per cent to N9.00, Prestige Assurance appreciated by 6.82 per cent to N1.41, and Red Star Express chalked up 4.99 per cent to finish at N5.05.

The activity chart was mixed yesterday after the trading volume shrank by 0.10 per cent, the trading grew by 50.00 per cent, and the number of deals leapt by 12.95 per cent.

A total of 394.4 million stocks valued at N22.8 billion were traded in 12,160 deals during the session versus the 394.8 million stocks worth N15.2 billion transacted in 10,766 deals in the preceding day.

GTCO ended as the busiest equity after the sale of 42.2 million units for N2.6 billion, UBA traded 37.5 million units worth N1.3 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 25.2 million units valued at N1.2 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 24.3 million units for N601.6 million, and Jaiz Bank traded 13.8 million units worth N41.4 million.

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