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Crude Oil Rises on Trade Deal Signing Expectations

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Prices of crude oil at the global market increased on Tuesday after five consecutive days of losses. The gains posted yesterday was helped by the optimism of a signing of phase one of a trade deal between the United States and China today.

The market, which had fallen as Middle East tensions eased, picked up on Tuesday as the two world’s largest economies get set to sign the first phase of a trade deal that put aside an 18-month trade war that affected world economy.

At Tuesday night, the Brent crude gained 41 cents or 0.64 percent to trade at $64.61 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 25 cents or 0.43 percent to tradeat $58.33 per barrel.

The signing will mark a major step in ending a dispute that has cut global growth and dented demand for oil, affecting key economies especially oil dependent nations like Nigeria.

Investors will also be banking on this and any development that can push prices up, but the major lookout is for the trade signing expected to take place in Washington DC.

The trade deal details, which are not yet fully disclosed, may see China buy more than $50 billion in energy supplies from the United States over the next two years.

It is expected that the deal may also include an expansion of US food, agriculture and seafood product exports as well as an agreement by China to end its long-standing practice of forcing or pressuring foreign companies to transfer their technologies to Chinese companies.

However, data showed that despite the trade dispute between the country and the United States, China’s crude oil imports in 2019 rose 9.5 percent from the previous year, setting a record for a 17th straight year as demand growth from new refineries propelled purchases by the world’s top importer.

Prices were supported by expected drops in crude oil inventories which reportedly may have declined by 0.8 million barrels last week, January 10. The poll was conducted ahead of original data expected from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

Prices are expected to keep up the trend into Wednesday when the signing will take place between Chinese Vice Premier, Liu He and President Donald Trump of the United States.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

OPEC+ Boost Output by 206kb/d as Iran War Limits Production

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May.

Eight members of ​OPEC+, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to the increase in May quota at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.

However, the rise will be in theory, as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has affected production.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil route, since the end of February and cut ​exports from some OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. These are the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise ​production even before the conflict began.

Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others, ​such as Russia, are unable to increase output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine. For Nigeria, even as Africa’s largest producer, it has not been able to keep production quotas steady.

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day ​represents less than 2 per cent of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Also meeting on Sunday, a separate OPEC+ panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply.

May’s OPEC+ increase is the ​same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the ​war began to disrupt ⁠oil flows.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million barrels per day or up to 15 per cent of global supply.

The eight OPEC+ members have raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to ​March 2026. The sub-group holds its next meeting on May 3.

Market analysts have warned that oil prices could hit $150 per barrel if the closure of the strait is prolonged and continues, due to damage to energy assets across the critical Middle East region.

As of the time of this report, Brent crude is trading at $108 per barrel, below the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $109 per barrel.

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Economy

Seplat Operations Resume After Pay Rise Deal With Striking Workers

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Workers at Seplat Energy will resume work after a strike action that impacted production was called off by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) over the weekend, with the company issuing written commitments ‌on pay rises.

Top employees began an indefinite strike last Friday as talks over a collective bargaining agreement and staff ​welfare issues broke down. The action came at a time when Nigeria is ​seeking to maximise production amid rising global oil ⁠prices.

According to Reuters, in an April 4 letter to the chief executive of Seplat Nigeria, Mr Roger Brown, PENGASSAN said it had directed members at the local energy firm to immediately suspend industrial action after negotiations resumed with ​the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited. Other less-skilled workers are covered by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and did not partake in the strike with PENGASSAN.

The union said ​talks on a 2026 collective bargaining agreement would continue, with the ‌aim ⁠of concluding outstanding issues by April 13. However, according to the publication, the union did not disclose more details about its financial demands.

“We can confirm that the union has suspended its notice ​of industrial action ​to allow ⁠negotiations to conclude on outstanding items within an agreed framework,” Seplat spokesperson, Mr Ogechukwu Udeagha, ​said, adding that “operations are recommencing at our various locations.”

Seplat Energy’s group production averaged 131,506 ​barrels of oil ​equivalent per ⁠day in 2025, according to its latest audited results. That is the equivalent of around ​7 per cent–9 per cent of Nigeria’s total liquids production.

The company expects ​output ⁠to rise to 155,000 barrels of oil ​equivalent per ⁠day, making any sustained disruption particularly sensitive for Nigeria’s supply outlook. This comes as it seeks to ​scale production while remaining a major supplier of gas to Nigeria’s ​domestic power market.

With the company’s output expected to rise, any prolonged disruption would have significantly impacted Nigeria’s oil supply and fiscal outlook.

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Economy

NGX Weekly Turnover Drops 27.7% to 2.856 billion Equities

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By Dipo Olowookere

The weekly turnover of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited shrank by 27.70 per cent or 1.094 billion equities, partly due to the inability of market participants to trade last Friday as a result of the Good Friday public holiday declared by the federal government.

In the week, investors bought and sold 2.856 billion equities worth N113.597 billion in 215,287 deals versus the 3.950 billion equities valued at N201.312 billion transacted in 359,642 deals in the preceding week.

The activity chart was led by the financial services industry with 1.811 billion shares valued at N61.901 billion in 86,818 deals, contributing 63.41 per cent and 54.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The services sector traded 299.895 million stocks worth N2.966 billion in 13,797 deals, and the ICT segment exchanged 183.233 million equities for N14.654 billion in 25,287 deals.

Wema Bank, Access Holdings, and Secure Electronic Technology accounted for 734.659 million shares worth N14.134 billion in 12,319 deals, contributing 25.72 per cent and 12.44 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.

Data from the NGX said 29 stocks gained weight versus 47 stocks of the previous week, as 57 shares lost weight versus 45 shares in the preceding week, while 62 equities closed flat versus 56 equities a week earlier.

Multiverse led the gainers’ chart after it gained 20.66 per cent to trade at N20.15, UPDC REIT appreciated by 15.49 per cent to N8.20, International Energy Insurance chalked up 12.54 per cent to quote at N3.32, Austin Laz grew by 10.47 per cent to N4.43, and Unilever Nigeria rose by 10.00 per cent to N103.40.

Conversely, Secure Electronic Technology topped the losers’ table after it lost 21.54 per cent to close at N1.02, John Holt declined by 18.47 per cent to N15.45, May and Baker depreciated by 16.57 per cent to N35.00, Aluminium Extrusion moderated by 16.27 per cent to N10.55, and Legend Internet slipped by 16.00 per cent to N6.30.

Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 0.39 per cent to 201,698,89 points, and the market capitalisation rose by 0.65 per cent to N129.806 trillion.

In the same vein, all other indices finished higher apart from the main board, insurance, MERI Value, consumer goods, industrial goods and growth indices, which went down by 0.29 per cent, 4.25 per cent, 0.36 per cent, 1.74 per cent, 0.24 per cent, and 0.06 per cent, respectively, while the sovereign bond index closed flat.

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