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Economy

Currency Markets in Focus Amid Escalating Trade War

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By Investors Hub

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a lower opening on Wednesday, with stocks likely to move back to the downside following yesterday’s notable rebound.

The downward momentum on Wall Street comes as the escalating U.S.-China trade war has investors paying close attention to daily developments on the currency front.

The People’s Bank of China set the midpoint for onshore yuan trading at 6.9996 per dollar, slightly stronger than the key 7.00 per dollar level but 0.4 percent weaker than 6.9683 on Tuesday.

The Chinese central bank setting the midpoint for the Chinese currency at a stronger than expected level contributed yesterday’s rally.

Negative sentiment may also be generated in reaction to disappointing earnings from Disney (DIS), with the entertainment giant slumping by nearly 5 percent in pre-market trading.

After the close of trading on Tuesday, Disney reported fiscal third quarter results that missed analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines.

Overall trading activity may be somewhat subdued, however, as another light day on the U.S. economic front may keep some traders on the sidelines.

The economic calendar remains relatively sparse throughout the week, although a report on producer price inflation may attract attention on Friday.

Following the sell-off seen on Monday, stocks showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Tuesday. The major averages fluctuated after an early upward move but maintained a positive bias throughout the session.

The major averages finished the session near their best levels of the day. The Dow jumped 311.78 points or 1.2 percent to 26,029.52, the Nasdaq soared 107.23 points or 1.4 percent to 7,833.27 and the S&P 500 surged up 37.03 points or 1.3 percent to 2,881.77.

The strength on Wall Street was partly due to bargain hunting, with traders picking up stocks at reduced levels after the major averages ended Monday’s trading at their lowest closing levels in two months.

News the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint for the Chinese currency at a stronger than expected level also helped ease investor jitters.

A recent drop in the value of the Chinese yuan further fueled speculation Beijing is devaluing its currency to counter President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat.

After refusing to do so several times in the past, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin officially declared China a currency manipulator on Monday.

The Treasury Department said Mnuchin will subsequently engage with the International Monetary Fund to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage created by China’s latest actions.

In a tweet this morning seemingly aimed at calming the markets, Trump claimed, “Massive amounts of money from China and other parts of the world is pouring into the United States for reasons of safety, investment, and interest rates!”

“We are in a very strong position. Companies are also coming to the U.S. in big numbers. A beautiful thing to watch!” he added.

Telecom stocks showed a significant move to the upside after falling sharply over the past few sessions, with the NYSE Arca North American Telecom Index jumping by 2 percent after ending Monday’s trading at its lowest closing level in well over two months.

Significant strength also emerged among biotechnology stocks, as reflected by the 1.7 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index. The index bounced off a two-month closing low.

Software, healthcare, retail and utilities stocks also saw considerable strength on the day, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.

Meanwhile, energy stocks bucked the uptrend, as the price of crude oil showed another steep drop amid concerns about the outlook for global energy demand.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Crude Oil Down on Steady US Energy Demand Forecast

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Crude Oil Loan Facility

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil went down on Tuesday after a projection showed steady demand in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States, for 2025, Brent futures declining by $1.09 or 1.35 per cent to settle at $79.92 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude losing $1.32 or 1.67 per cent to finish at $77.50 a barrel.

On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration said the country’s oil demand would remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million barrels per day, an increase from the agency’s previous forecast of 13.52 million barrels per day for this year.

Also, the oil market shrank a few days after prices gained following new US sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China.

On Monday, prices jumped 2 per cent after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers.

Analysts say this move could have a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, however, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest.

ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000 barrels per day surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower.

Uncertainty about demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, could impact tighter supply this year.

China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending January 10.

For the week prior, the API reported a draw of 4.022 million barrels in US crude oil inventories amid build season, while product inventories saw a hefty build.

In 2024, crude oil inventories dropped by more than 12 million barrels, according to the API’s inventory data. In the first few weeks of 2025, crude inventories have shed more than 6.6 million barrels.

Official data from the US EIA will be due later on Wednesday, confirming the actual level of stockpiles.

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Economy

Stock Exchange Suffers Heavy Loss as Investors Pull Out N1.1trn

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Local Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, going down by 1.66 per cent as investors embarked on profit-taking after most stocks on the trading platform gained in the past few trading sessions.

It was observed that the industrial goods sector was the most affected yesterday as it went down by 4.99 per cent due to the decline suffered by Dangote Cement and others.

The insurance continued its downward trend during the day as it lost 2.80 per cent, the consumer goods counter fell by 0.27 per cent, and the banking index shed 0.10 per cent, while the energy sector appreciated by 0.29 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) deflated by 1,745.16 points to settle at 103,622.09 points compared with the previous trading day’s 105,367.25 points and the market capitalisation moderated by N1.1 trillion to finish at N63.188 trillion versus Monday’s N64.252 trillion.

Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak on Tuesday after the bourse ended with 41 depreciating equities and 23 appreciating equities, representing a negative market breadth index.

Honeywell Flour lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N9.54, Dangote Cement declined by 9.98 per cent to N431.00, Julius Berger crashed by 9.98 per cent to N139.80, Sovereign Trust Insurance decreased by 9.68 per cent to N1.12, and Prestige Assurance tumbled by 9.30 per cent to N1.17.

On the flip side, Northern Nigerian Flour Mills appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N45.10, Livestock Feeds grew by 9.91 per cent to N6.10, Academy Press expanded by 9.90 per cent to N3.22, University Press increased by 9.82 per cent to N4.81, and Neimeth gained 9.76 per cent to quote at N3.15.

During the session, market participants bought and sold 503.3 million shares valued at N12.6 billion in 12,900 deals compared with the 505.8 million shares worth N8.1 billion traded in 14,259 deals a day earlier, indicating a rise in the trading value by 55.56 per cent and a drop in the trading volume and number of deals by 0.49 per cent and 9.53 per cent, respectively.

The most active stock for the session was GTCO with 54.4 million units worth N3.2 billion, Nigerian Breweries transacted 32.2 million units for N1.0 billion, Universal Insurance traded 30.8 million units valued at N22.6 million, AIICO Insurance exchanged 26.6 million units worth N47.2 million, and Chams transacted 20.0 million units valued at N40.9 million.

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Economy

FG Offers 18% Interest on Savings Bonds

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FGN Savings Bonds

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).

In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.

Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.

According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.

These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.

Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.

However, interested investor can only  buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.

This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.

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