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Dangote Refinery to Reduce West Africa’s Petrol Imports—S&P

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West Africa's petrol imports

By Adedapo Adesanya

S&P Global Commodity Insights has projected that when the Dangote Refinery finally ramps up refining activities, it could massively reduce West Africa’s petrol imports from Europe by as much as 290,000 barrels per day.

This was disclosed during a panel discussion themed Exploring West Africa’s Oil Product Flows in a Changing Refining Landscape by S&P analysts, including Mr Joel Hanley, Mr Matthew Tracey-Cook, Ms Kelly Norways and Ms Elza Turner.

The panellists noted that the 650,000 barrels per day $19 billion facility in Lagos will before 2026, significantly change the fuels supply landscape in West Africa.

“Once we see the refinery ramp up, that could mean that West African gasoline imports or the import reliance that they have at the moment could drop by as much as 290,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2026. So really, this could become quite a dominant supplier in the West African market, subject to when we start to see those barrels hit the market in Nigeria and the local region,” said Ms Norways, Downstream Sector Oil analyst at S&P.

Also, S&P said that Nigeria recently cut the maximum sulphur content for gas oil imports from 3,000 parts per million to below 500 parts per million, thereby significantly stifling the import of the product from Europe to Nigeria.

“Once Nigeria sees Dangote reach a steady state capacity, that could mean some 327,000 barrels per day of gasoline (petrol) supply and 244,000 barrels per day of diesel or gas oil. In practice, how that splits between the domestic market and the export market remains to be seen.

“There’s a significant amount of pressure from the Nigerian government for significant volumes of that supply to flow to the domestic market to try and solve this cost of living crisis and prevent significant pay-outs that need to be made onto importing those large volumes.

“But in reality, when we see that start to scale up is still subject to debate. Dangote has been espousing some pretty punchy timelines.”

Mr Hanley also said that the Dangote refinery may also reduce the cargo that often sits off the coast of West Africa.

“If you’ve ever been to Lagos, you see these enormous queues of refined products tankers waiting there. Now, one thing that I think people thought might relieve some of the pressure and, as I said, redress the imbalance somewhat would be the Dangote refinery.

“And it’s finally got going, not fully up to speed perhaps, but we started to see a cargo coming out, which is exciting,” stated the Director at S&P.

Mr Hanley also stated that while the ramp-up is important, it was also important for the firm to look at ‘where the money is.’

“As you said, there’s pressure from the Nigerian government because, of course, they would like this much-vaunted, long-awaited, Waiting for Godot kind of refinery to supply the local market and take some of the pressure off.

“But if the international markets are prepared to pay up for that product, then it’s going to be tricky. It’s a very tricky balance to decide where that flow will go,” Mr Hanley added.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria’s NaFarm Foods Gets $1m Zayed Sustainability Prize

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NaFarms Foods

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A pioneering agricultural solutions provider based in Kaduna, Nigeria, NaFarm Foods, has been named as the winner of the food category of the 2025 Zayed Sustainability Prize for its Hybrid Solar Food Dryer.

The company clinched the accolade for its groundbreaking innovation in reducing post-harvest losses, improving food security, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices across Nigeria.

Hybrid Solar Food Dryer was designed by NaFarm Foods to address the critical issue of food spoilage by combining solar heat and electricity generated from solar panels for efficient, all-weather drying of food, even during rainy or cloudy days.

With a capacity of 500kg per unit and the ability to retain the nutritional quality of food while minimising energy costs, the technology has already benefited over 80 communities across six Nigerian states.

By reducing post-harvest losses for over 65,000 farmers, the dryers contribute significantly to food security and rural economic empowerment.

The Hybrid Solar Food Dryer is transforming food preservation by reducing spoilage rates, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing food, and lowering reliance on fossil fuels.

With a whole-of-life cost of less than 1 cent per 100 litres, the dryers are accessible and economically viable for smallholder farmers and food processors.

By 2030, NaFarm Foods aims to empower two million farmers and reduce carbon emissions by 50,000 metric tonnes annually.

Business Post reports that NaFarms Foods has won $1 million from Zayed to scale its operations by manufacturing and distributing 100,000 dryers across Nigeria and West Africa.

“We are deeply honoured to be recognised as a winner of the Zayed Sustainability Prize. It signifies global recognition of our efforts to tackle food insecurity and promote equitable and sustainable agriculture in Nigeria and beyond.

“This opportunity inspires us to continue pushing boundaries, knowing that our work is not only transforming lives locally but also contributing to a more sustainable and equitable world. For us, this is more than an achievement; it’s a call to action to drive greater impact,” the chief executive of NaFarms Foods, Ms Fatima Jimoh, said.

The Director of the Zayed Sustainability Prize, Dr Lamya Fawwaz, said, “NaFarm Foods’ innovative approach to sustainable food preservation not only improves food security but also empowers rural communities, particularly women and youth, by creating income-generating opportunities. This aligns with the Prize’s mission to drive progress and improve livelihoods.”

NaFarm Foods plans to expand training programmes to empower an additional 25,000 women and youth, fostering entrepreneurship and sustainable economic growth.

Additionally, it intends to establish distribution hubs and implement advanced cluster mapping systems to ensure technology accessibility and improved marketability of produce.

Each year, the Zayed Sustainability Prize rewards organisations and high schools for their groundbreaking solutions, fostering innovation on global challenges. Over the past 17 years, through its 128 winners, the prize has positively impacted 407 million lives worldwide.

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Economy

Naira Falls Further to N1,549.65/$1 at Official Market, Gains N5 at Black Market

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more wealth for investors Naira

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira depreciated against the United States Dollar for the third straight session by 0.05 per cent or N1.36 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Tuesday, January 14.

During the second trading day of the week, the exchange rate closed at N1,549.65/$1 in the official market, in contrast to Monday’s closing price of N1,548.89/$1.

The renewed pressure on the Naira occurred as analysts expected the introduction of the electronic matching FX market system, increasing foreign portfolio inflows, greater access to dollar-denominated debt, rising FX reserves, and a positive current account balance to support the domestic currency in 2025.

Investment banking firm, CardinalStone Securities Limited, said the Naira movement, which has contributed about 20.0 per cent – 30.0 per cent to inflation in the last few years, is likely to be relatively stable in 2025.

Also in the spot market, the local currency weakened against the Pound Sterling yesterday by N2.22 to trade at N1,879.64/£1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,877.42/£1 and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency lost N7.17 to quote at N1,586.05/€1 versus the N1,578.87/€1 it was traded a day earlier.

However, in the black market, the Naira appreciated against the greenback during the session by N5 to finish at N1,650/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,655/$1.

In the cryptocurrency market, the bulls took charge of reports that US President-elect Donald Trump is preparing first-day executive orders that will benefit the crypto industry. The advance continued today, supported by softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) readings for December.

Mr Trump’s expected crypto policies and broader economic plans have brought back positive sentiment among traders — bumping up crypto prices.

Ripple (XRP) added 12.1 per cent to its value to close at $2.84, Cardano jumped by 6.8 per cent to trade at $1.02, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 5.0 per cent to $0.3589, Litecoin (LTC) grew by 3.2 per cent to $101.80, Bitcoin (BTC) expanded by 2.2 per cent to $96,866.89, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 1.5 per cent to $699.45, Solana (SOL) also gained 1.5 per cent to end at $188.57, and Ethereum (ETH) improved by 1.3 per cent to $3,219.28, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Crude Oil Down on Steady US Energy Demand Forecast

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Crude Oil Loan Facility

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil went down on Tuesday after a projection showed steady demand in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States, for 2025, Brent futures declining by $1.09 or 1.35 per cent to settle at $79.92 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude losing $1.32 or 1.67 per cent to finish at $77.50 a barrel.

On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration said the country’s oil demand would remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million barrels per day, an increase from the agency’s previous forecast of 13.52 million barrels per day for this year.

Also, the oil market shrank a few days after prices gained following new US sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China.

On Monday, prices jumped 2 per cent after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers.

Analysts say this move could have a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, however, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest.

ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000 barrels per day surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower.

Uncertainty about demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, could impact tighter supply this year.

China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending January 10.

For the week prior, the API reported a draw of 4.022 million barrels in US crude oil inventories amid build season, while product inventories saw a hefty build.

In 2024, crude oil inventories dropped by more than 12 million barrels, according to the API’s inventory data. In the first few weeks of 2025, crude inventories have shed more than 6.6 million barrels.

Official data from the US EIA will be due later on Wednesday, confirming the actual level of stockpiles.

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