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Economy

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc: Strong Ending from Troubled 2016

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Dangote Sugar

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc released its Q4 and full year 2016 results last week and its 94.5 percent y/y revenue and PAT growth apiece, in the final quarter, summed up an impressive year for the company, wherein top-line grew by 67.9 percent while post-tax profit increased by 29.2 percent.

The Board is recommending N0.60 dividend per share (vs. N0.50 in 2015, and in line with our estimate).

Q4-2016 – The Hand of Price and Fair Value Adjustments

The revenue growth of 94.5 percent y/y reported during the fourth quarter was ahead of our estimate of 77 percent y/y, on higher-than-expected sales volume (+14% ahead of our forecast). The volume sold during the period (164k tonnes), though ahead of our estimate, was expectedly at record low level considering the magnitude of price increase (+34%) implemented during the period. Compared to other FMCG companies in our coverage, DANGSUGAR implemented about the highest (+70% average) price increase over 2016 to prevent the severe NGN depreciation and raw materials price increases experienced during the year from eroding margins.

Gross margin fell sharply (403bps q/q) to 7.3%, as the price increase mentioned above trailed the 39 percent increase in cost per tonne.

Raw materials cost (+46% q/q per tonne) was the biggest driver of the increase in per tonne cost, reflecting both the increase in the international price of raw sugar from the third quarter and the continued slippage of the Naira exchange rate at the alternative markets.

A significant surge in depreciation charge (the highest during the year) was also responsible for the shrinkage in gross margin.

Operating expenses was down 0.5 percent y/y, but was the highest – consistent with the historical trend – in all quarters of the year. But thanks to the huge price-driven revenue growth, the opex/revenue ratio was maintained at 4 percent.

Below the EBIT line, fair value adjustments came in at N1.82 billion, similar to Q4-15, and had a major positive impact on PBT (84.8% y/y and 3.2% q/q). The fair adjustments relate to the revaluation of the sugar cane plantations.

Below PBT, a significantly lower effective tax rate of 0.4% (vs. 34% average in 9M-16 and 5% in Q4-15) had positive feed-through to PAT.

The management claims to have had a strong start to 2017, capturing market share from competitors and smugglers. It expressed optimism in the ability of the strengthening Naira to eliminate the challenges of sourcing FX. Risk, however, is that raw sugar prices remain volatile in the international market and subsequent appreciation could more than offset gain from a stable Naira exchange rate.

http://research.cordros.com/view-reports

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

World Bank Upwardly Reviews Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.4%

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Nigeria's economic growth

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Nigeria has been projected to record an economic growth rate of 4.4 per cent in 2026 by the World Bank Group, higher than the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.

In its 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the global lender also said the growth for next year for Nigeria is 4.4 per cent rather than the 3.8 per cent earlier projected.

As for the sub-Saharan African region, the economy is forecast to move up to 4.3 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.

It stressed that growth in developing economies should slow to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent in 2025 before rising to 4.1 per cent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.

In the report, it also noted that growth is expected to jump in low-income countries by 5.6 per cent due to stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.

As for the world economy, the bank said it is now 2.6 per cent and not 2.4 per cent due to growing resilience despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” a part of the report stated.

“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” it noted.

World Bank also said, “Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s — while carrying record levels of public and private debt.

“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”

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Economy

Seven Equities Buoy NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.73%

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NASD securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Seven price gainers triggered a 0.73 per cent appreciation in the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Tuesday, January 13.

The advancers were led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which added N5.06 to its value to close at N75.00 per unit versus the preceding day’s N68.70 per unit, followed by MRS Oil Plc, with a price appreciation of N5.06 to sell at N200.00 per share compared with the previous session’s N194.94 per share, and Air Liquide expanded by N1.00 to settle at N14.00 per unit versus N13.00 per unit.

Further, Food Concepts Plc climbed by 31 Kobo to N3.37 per share from N3.06 per share, IPWA Plc appreciated by 11 Kobo to N1.23 per unit from N1.12 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc grew by 6 Kobo to N6.90 per share from N6.84 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc grew by 1 Kobo to end at N1.29 per unit versus Monday’s closing price of N1.28 per unit.

The gains recorded by these seven securities raised the market capitalisation by N15.95 billion to N2.2 trillion from the preceding session’s N2.184 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) added 26.65 points to close at 3,678.13 points compared to 3,651.48 points.

Business Post reports that three stocks she weight yesterday, with Afriland Properties Plc down by N1.49 to N14.73 per share from N16.22 per share. Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by 64 Kobo to N40.13 per unit from N40.77 per unit, and UBN Property Plc lost 1 Kobo to close at N2.05 per share versus N2.06 per share.

Yesterday, the number of deals executed soared by 39.6 per cent to 67 deals from 48 deals, the total value of transaction surged by 84.1 per cent to N86.1 million from N46.8 million, while the volume of trades shrank by 59.6 million to 1.6 million units from 4.03 million units.

CSCS Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 2.0 million units sold for N81.4 million, trailed by MRS Oil Plc with 265,697 units worth N53.1 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 6.4 million units traded for N43.4 million.

By volume, Geo-Fluids Plc topped the chart with 6.4 million units valued at N43.4 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 3.1 million units transacted for N1.9 million, and CSCS Plc with 2.0 million units valued at N81.4 million.

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Economy

Naira Now N1,419/$1 at Official Forex Market

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naira official market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The value of the Naira further appreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, January 13 by N1.80 or 0.13 per cent to N1,419.66/$1 from Monday’s N1,421.46/$1.

This was boosted by an inject of $50 million into the official forex market by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in an effort to defend the local currency.

At the same spot market, the Nigerian currency improved its rate against the Pound Sterling during the session by N1.86 to close at N1,913.98/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,915.84/£1 and gained N5.09 on the Euro to settle at N1,656.59/€1, in contrast to the N1,661.68/€1 it was transacted a day earlier.

At the parallel market and the GTBank FX counter, the Naira maintained stability against the DOllar yesterday at N1,490/$1 and N1,431/$1, respectively.

Market analysts have noted that proper CBN support, stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), improving current account dynamics, and more disciplined FX management will give the Naira stronger footing in the near term, with threats coming from externalities.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was elevated on Tuesday as US inflation eased and political uncertainty around the Federal Reserve increased demand for non-sovereign assets.

Ease in US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates this year. Lower inflation eased pressure on bond yields and improved liquidity conditions, a setup that has historically favored crypto and other risk assets.

Also, reports that the US Justice Department had served grand jury subpoenas on the Federal Reserve earlier this week unsettled markets and weakened the Dollar, boosting the appeal of assets viewed as insulated from central bank risk.

Cardano (ADA) surged by 7.5 per cent to $0.4206, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 6.2 per cent to $3,321.77, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 5.8 per cent to $0.1472, Ripple (XRP) rose by 3.9 per cent to $2.14, Binance Coin (BNB) expanded by 3.1 per cent to $936.96, Litecoin (LTC) jumped by 3.1 per cent to $78.58, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 2.9 per cent to $94,662.42, and Solana (SOL) soared by 1.6 per cent to $144.03, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece. 

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