Economy
Economy Contracted by 1.54% in 2016—FG
Nigeria’s economy is projected to have contracted 1.54 percent in 2016, according to a budget ministry document, with Africa’s most populous country mired in its first recession in a quarter of a century.
Nigeria is heavily dependent on crude oil exports to fuel its economy, but low global prices and militant attacks on the Delta oil hub have hammered those exports and slashed government revenues.
“The Nigerian economy, in response to both external and internal economic pressures, inevitably contracted and is currently in recession with a projected growth of -1.54 percent for 2016,” the document released to Reuters by the ministry on Saturday said.
The budget ministry draft, called “Key issues in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan”, said the recession was also caused by growth dependent on consumption rather than investment and “huge leaks in government resources through corruption and inefficient spending”.
The International Monetary Fund has predicted that Nigeria’s economy would shrink 1.8 percent in 2016. Final official figures are due to be released by Nigeria on February 28.
President Muhammadu Buhari’s government came to power on a pledge to diversify the economy, fight corruption and tackle the Islamist Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast.
But Buhari’s critics say the administration has made little headway, with the economy in recession, corruption still endemic and Boko Haram continuing to carry out attacks.
Nigeria’s central bank, backed by Buhari, has also kept the naira rate to the dollar at 40 percent above the unofficial – or parallel – market rate, which has dried up dollar supplies on official channels.
The government is now formulating an “Economic Recovery and Growth Plan” for 2017 to 2020.
“First-class infrastructure and an economic environment that supports the private sector and enables it to expand, take risk and employ people are essential to achieve Nigeria’s aspirations for a dynamic, competitive economy,” the budget ministry’s document on the plan said.
Nigeria also plans to increase oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2020, the document said. In January the vice president said production was 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day.
The government also wants to improve domestic refineries so that petroleum product imports can be cut by 60 percent by 2018, said the document.
To lift growth, the plan will focus on building up Nigeria’s agriculture, energy and small and medium-sized businesses, the document said, adding that the country aims to have 10 gigawatts of power capacity by 2020.
Of particular concern is job creation, said the document, as unemployment steadily rises. The unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2016, the latest for which there is publicly available data, was 13.9 percent. At the end of 2015, the rate was 6.4 percent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pressure further mounted on the Nigerian Naira in the different segments of the foreign exchange market on Tuesday, making its value to shrink against the United States Dollar at the close of business.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the domestic currency crashed against its American counterpart during the session by 0.18 per cent or N2.73 to settle at N1,552.78/$1, in contrast to Monday’s closing price of N1,550.05/1.
But against the Pound Sterling and the Euro, the local currency traded flat in the official market yesterday at N1,906.98/£1 and N1,613.48/€1, respectively.
As for the black market segment, the Naira weakened against the Dollar on Tuesday by N5 to sell for N1,670/$1 compared with the preceding day’s value of N1,665/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market heaved a sigh of relief during the session as President Donald Trump created a crypto task force dedicated to “developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.”
The task force will be led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, a long-time advocate for the crypto industry, and will work closely with the crypto industry to develop regulations. This is after Mr Gary Gensler, an opponent of crypto, officially stepped down as chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after Mr Trump’s term started.
The task force will also work with Congress, providing “technical assistance” as it crafts crypto regulations.
Solana (SOL) recorded a 9.2 per cent growth to sell at $257.09, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 7.6 per cent to $0.36789, Ripple (XRP) added 4.0 per cent to finish at $3.18, and Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 3.7 per cent to $105,515.03.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 2.8 per cent to close at $699.01, Cardano jumped by 2.1 per cent to trade at $0.9972, Ethereum (ETH) soared by 2.0 per cent to settle at $3,308.21, and Litecoin (LTC) went up by 1.5 per cent to end at $116.72, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of the Brent crude oil grade went below the $80 mark on Tuesday after it shed 86 cents or 1.1 per cent to trade at $79.29 per barrel after the US President, Mr Donald Trump, signaled the possibility of his country boosting its oil production.
This move raised concerns of higher US output in a market widely expected to be oversupplied this year, with the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures falling by $1.99 or 2.6 per cent during the session to $75.89 per barrel.
On his first day in office, the US President signed an executive order to unleash America’s energy by easing the barriers to oil and gas extraction and production and revoking a series of climate orders by former President Joe Biden.
As pledged in the campaign, the executive order follows the declaration of a national energy emergency.
The declaration includes measures to expedite energy infrastructure delivery, and emergency approvals by agencies “to facilitate the identification, leasing, siting, production, transportation, refining, and generation of domestic energy resources, including, but not limited to, on Federal lands.”
This will likely confirm expectations that the oil market will be oversupplied this year after weak economic activity and energy transition efforts weighed heavily on demand in top-consuming nations the US and China.
President Trump also said he was considering imposing 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from February 1, rather than on his first day in office as promised.
The delay helped ease concerns of an immediate tightening of the market among US refiners, many of which are geared to process the type of crude oil supplied by these countries.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reiterated on Tuesday its expectations for oil prices to decline both this year and next.
On its part, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects robust demand growth in the world both this year and next.
In 2025, OPEC says demand is set to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day leaving its projection unchanged from the December report.
However, losses were also limited after the US president said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is the second-biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China.
Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea.
Yemen’s Houthis said on Monday they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.
By Dipo Olowookere
Transactions on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rallied on Tuesday by 0.75 per cent after investors intensified their demand for local stocks.
It was a tough battle between the bulls and the bears during the session, but the former overcame by a whisker after the bourse recorded 29 appreciating equities and 28 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The growth posted by Customs Street yesterday could be attributed to the appetite for MTN Nigeria shares, which chalked up 10.00 per cent to settle at N256.30.
SCOA Nigeria appreciated by 9.93 per cent to N2.99, Omatek grew by 9.88 per cent to 89 Kobo, Universal Insurance rose by 8.70 per cent to 75 Kobo, and CAP gained 8.52 per cent to trade at N47.75.
Conversely, Secure Electronic Technology lost 9.88 per cent to quote at 73 Kobo, Abbey Mortgage Bank declined by 9.09 per cent to N3.30, Sunu Assurances tumbled by 8.21 per cent to N6.15, Deap Capital slumped by 7.08 per cent to N1.05, and C&I Leasing depreciated by 6.82 per cent to N4.10.
A total of 440.3 million equities valued at N12.0 billion exchanged hands in 13,087 deals compared with the 1.3 billion equities worth N17.7 billion transacted in 13,891 deals on Monday, representing a decline in the trading volume, value and number of deals by 66.79 per cent, 32.20 per cent and 5.79 per cent, respectively.
Lasaco Assurance ended the session as the most traded stock after it sold 108.1 million units valued at N338.7 million, Access Holdings traded 44.0 million units for N1.1 billion, UBA exchanged 27.9 million units worth N945.7 million, Zenith Bank transacted 26.7 million units for N1.3 billion, and Universal Insurance traded 22.7 million units valued at N16.7 million.
On Tuesday, the insurance, banking and industrial goods sectors jumped by 1.03 per cent, 0.30 per cent, and 0.03 per cent, respectively, and the consumer goods and energy counters lost 0.38 per cent and 0.36 per cent apiece.
The All-Share Index (ASI) went up yesterday by 767.63 points to 103,137.99 points from 102,370.36 points and the market capitalisation increased by N472 billion to N63.333 trillion from N62.861 trillion.
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