Economy
Equities Market May Remain Bearish After 2019 Elections
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian stock market has not been having it good since the January bull run. The local bourse, which gained over 40 percent last year, has lost 16.68 percent in 2018, which has only 45 days to wrap up.
The downtrend has mainly been attributed to uncertainty over the 2019 general elections in the country, but analysts at Cordros Research fear that the market may remain weak after the much-awaited polls.
“In our view, without any meaningful positive trigger, investors may see the lukewarm market performance persist even after the general election, come next year,” Cordros Research stated in one of its latest report obtained by Business Post.
The firm said notably, marginally tightened global liquidity conditions, together with the rhetoric of trade protectionism, and the economic crises in Argentina and Turkey drove negative sentiments across emerging and frontier markets, including Nigeria, which was not spared in the selloffs “largely induced by external factors.”
Furthermore, disappointing growth data, together with unimpressive corporate earnings further weakened appetite for Naira risk assets, the report said.
“Oil prices may have remained firm, but it would appear that external concerns weigh stronger on sentiments. To add, MTN’s listing, which would have had a bit of a positive impact, was soured by the management-CBN spat. Even as the unflinching sell-offs made valuations somewhat compelling, investors remain unconvinced,” the report added.
“Certainly, election period is imminent and the polity is gradually heating up. Nonetheless, we believe they are yet to strongly impact market sentiments thus far this year and will remain so over November and December.
“Undeniably, election-related risk-off sentiments will be stronger from January 2019, however, we believe that the external events and the domestic macro fundamental issues highlighted above will remain the key drivers of market movement.
“It is therefore noteworthy that investors reassess the impression that local equities have been held down largely by election risk, thus implying imminent recovery post polls next year,” Cordros Research noted.
“To underscore why this matter, we observed the performance of the local market in the last two election years and found that post-election gains were sharp, albeit short-lived.
“In 2015, the market was thrilled by the news of the victory of the opposition, with the index gaining 14 percent between April and May, before crashing in subsequent months.
“In the same vein, Nigeria’s equities market warmly welcomed the election of President Jonathan in 2011 as NSEASI returned 5.0 percent between April and May of that year, and went south thereafter,” the report said.
It stressed that, “Clearly, on both occasions, the failure of the economic managers to meet market expectations tanked the post-election rallies. We suggest investors take a cue from the experiences when framing investment strategies ahead of next year.”
“In our view, barring less hawkish monetary policy rhetoric across developed economies, better global trade talks, and improved economic landscape across emerging economies, most of which are unlikely in the near term, and from which NSEASI will certainly benefit, post-election activities in the local market will follow the historical pattern, and more so, in the absence of market-friendly policy changes/announcements,” the report concluded.
By Dipo Olowookere
The upward trajectory seen at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in the past sessions was halted on Thursday as a result of profit-taking in Aradel Holdings, MTN Nigeria, GTCO, and others.
Nigerian stocks were down by 0.43 per cent because of the selling pressure. It was the first loss in 2026 and also the first in 23 trading session. The last time Customs Street ended in red was December 10, 2025.
The decision of investors to trim their exposure to equities contracted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 714.66 points during the session to 166,057.29 points from 166,771.95 points and brought down the market capitalisation by N458 billion to N106.323 trillion from N106.781 trillion.
A look at the sectorial performance indicated that the energy, commodity, and insurance indices were down by 2.21 per cent, 1.14 per cent, and 0.24 per cent, respectively, while the banking, consumer goods, and industrial goods sectors were up by 0.78 per cent, 0.33 per cent, and 0.01 per cent apiece.
Yesterday, investor sentiment was weak after the bourse ended with 26 price gainers and 41 price losers, showing a negative market breadth index.
McNichols declined by 9.99 per cent to trade at N6.58, Caverton crashed by 9.47 per cent to N7.65, Ikeja Hotel collapsed by 9.43 per cent to N35.05, FTN Cocoa dropped 9.38 per cent to sell for N7.05, and Neimeth went down by 8.91 per cent to N9.20.
On the flip side, Nestle Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to quote at N2,153.80, NCR Nigeria appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N116.90, Jaiz Bank improved by 9.92 per cent to N8.20, Morison Industries rose by 9.90 per cent to N5.66, and Mecure Industries grew by 9.84 per cent to N97.70.
During the session, market participants traded 1.0 billion stocks worth N31.6 billion in 51,227 deals compared with the 761.9 million stocks valued at N29.9 billion transacted in 55,751 deals at midweek, representing a drop in the number of deals by 8.12 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 31.25 per cent, and 5.69 per cent, respectively.
Sovereign Trust Insurance returned on top of the activity chart with 245.2 million units sold for N798.5 million, Access Holdings traded 78.4 million units worth N1.8 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 72.4 million units for N5.0 billion, Jaiz Bank exchanged 53.7 million units valued at N433.9 million, and Lasaco Assurance traded 53.4 million units worth N135.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil was down by around 4 per cent on Thursday after the United States President, Mr Donald Trump, said the crackdown on protesters in Iran was easing, calming concerns over potential military action against the Middle-East country and oil supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures depreciated by $2.76 or 4.15 per cent to $63.76 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $2.83 or 4.56 per cent, to $59.19 a barrel.
President Trump said he had been told that killings during Iran’s crackdown on protests were easing and he believed there was no current plan for large-scale executions, though he warned that the US was still weighing military action against the oil producer, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Countries (OPEC).
Thousands of people are reported to have been killed in the weeks-long protests, and the American president has vowed to support demonstrators, saying help was “on its way.”
Iran has threatened the US with reprisals were it to be attacked, alongside conciliatory signals, including the suspension of a protester’s execution.
The New York Times reported that many of the US Gulf allies, including several of Iran’s own rivals, have also pushed against a US military intervention, warning that the ripple effects would undermine regional security and damage their reputations as havens for foreign capital.
Regardless, the US withdrew some personnel from military bases in the Middle East, after a senior Iranian official said Iran had told neighbours it would hit American bases if America strikes.
Venezuela has begun reversing oil production cuts made under a US embargo, with crude exports also resuming. The OPEC member’s oil exports fell close to zero in the weeks after the US imposed a blockade on oil shipments in December, with only Chevron exporting crude from its joint ventures with PDVSA under US license.
The embargo left millions of barrels stuck in onshore tanks and vessels. As storage filled, PDVSA was forced to shut wells and order oil production cuts at joint ventures in the country.
With this development, the Venezuelan state oil company is now instructing the joint ventures to resume output from well clusters that were shut.
On the demand side, OPEC said on Wednesday that 2027 oil demand was likely to rise at a similar pace to this year and published data indicating a near balance between supply and demand in 2026, contrasting with other forecasts of a glut.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.436 million barrels per day in November, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), quoting primary sources, noted that the oil output was below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota for the nation.
The OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million barrels per day, Q2: 1.481 million barrels per day, Q3: 1.444 million barrels per day, and 1.42 million barrels per day in Q4.
However, the cartel acknowledged that despite the gradual decrease in oil production, Nigeria’s non-oil sector grew in the second half of last year.
The organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”
According to the report, cooling inflation, a stronger Naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
“A stronger naira, easing food prices due to the harvest, and a cooling in core inflation also point to gradually fading underlying pressures”, the report noted.
It forecast inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.
OPEC, however, stated that while preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.
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