Economy

Equities Market May Remain Bearish After 2019 Elections

Published

6 years ago

15/11/2018

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Nigerian stock market has not been having it good since the January bull run. The local bourse, which gained over 40 percent last year, has lost 16.68 percent in 2018, which has only 45 days to wrap up.

The downtrend has mainly been attributed to uncertainty over the 2019 general elections in the country, but analysts at Cordros Research fear that the market may remain weak after the much-awaited polls.

“In our view, without any meaningful positive trigger, investors may see the lukewarm market performance persist even after the general election, come next year,” Cordros Research stated in one of its latest report obtained by Business Post.

The firm said notably, marginally tightened global liquidity conditions, together with the rhetoric of trade protectionism, and the economic crises in Argentina and Turkey drove negative sentiments across emerging and frontier markets, including Nigeria, which was not spared in the selloffs “largely induced by external factors.”

Furthermore, disappointing growth data, together with unimpressive corporate earnings further weakened appetite for Naira risk assets, the report said.

“Oil prices may have remained firm, but it would appear that external concerns weigh stronger on sentiments. To add, MTN’s listing, which would have had a bit of a positive impact, was soured by the management-CBN spat. Even as the unflinching sell-offs made valuations somewhat compelling, investors remain unconvinced,” the report added.

“Certainly, election period is imminent and the polity is gradually heating up. Nonetheless, we believe they are yet to strongly impact market sentiments thus far this year and will remain so over November and December.

“Undeniably, election-related risk-off sentiments will be stronger from January 2019, however, we believe that the external events and the domestic macro fundamental issues highlighted above will remain the key drivers of market movement.

“It is therefore noteworthy that investors reassess the impression that local equities have been held down largely by election risk, thus implying imminent recovery post polls next year,” Cordros Research noted.

“To underscore why this matter, we observed the performance of the local market in the last two election years and found that post-election gains were sharp, albeit short-lived.

“In 2015, the market was thrilled by the news of the victory of the opposition, with the index gaining 14 percent between April and May, before crashing in subsequent months.

“In the same vein, Nigeria’s equities market warmly welcomed the election of President Jonathan in 2011 as NSEASI returned 5.0 percent between April and May of that year, and went south thereafter,” the report said.

It stressed that, “Clearly, on both occasions, the failure of the economic managers to meet market expectations tanked the post-election rallies. We suggest investors take a cue from the experiences when framing investment strategies ahead of next year.”

“In our view, barring less hawkish monetary policy rhetoric across developed economies, better global trade talks, and improved economic landscape across emerging economies, most of which are unlikely in the near term, and from which NSEASI will certainly benefit, post-election activities in the local market will follow the historical pattern, and more so, in the absence of market-friendly policy changes/announcements,” the report concluded.

Economy

Local Stock Market Depletes by N141bn

Published

8 hours ago

12/04/2025

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under pressure on Friday, staggering by 0.21 per cent at the close of trading activities.

Investors embarked on profit-taking yesterday, particularly in the energy and industrial goods sectors, which closed lower by 0.43 per cent and 0.06 per cent, respectively.

The gains reported by the others could not extend the stay of Customs Street in the positive territory yesterday.

Data showed that the insurance counter closed higher by 2.07 per cent, and the banking space improved by 0.55 per cent, while the consumer goods and commodity indices closed flat.

When the closing gong was struck by 2:30 pm, the All-Share Index (ASI) was down by 224.91 points to 104,563.34 points from 104,788.25 points and the market capitalisation contracted by N141 billion to N65.707 trillion from N65.848 trillion.

Deap Capital lost 9.71 per cent to trade at 93 Kobo, Royal Exchange crumbled by 9.09 per cent to 80 Kobo, Sovereign Trust Insurance fell by 7.61 per cent to 85 Kobo, Guinea Insurance depreciated by 7.35 per cent to 63 Kobo, and Oando dwindled by 5.57 per cent to N39.00.

Conversely, Caverton jumped by 9.96 per cent to N2.54, VFD Group surged by 9.90 per cent to N87.70, Abbey Mortgage Bank gained 9.86 per cent to close at N6.13, FTN Cocoa advanced by 9.83 per cent to N1.90, and Regency Alliance rose by 9.43 per cent to 58 Kobo.

On Friday, investors traded 380.0 million equities worth N10.1 billion in 10,791 deals versus the 432.6 million equities valued at N9.7 billion transacted in 12,027 deals in the previous trading session, indicating an uptick in the value of transactions by 4.12 per cent and contractions in the volume of trades and the number of deals by 12.16 per cent and 10.28 per cent apiece.

Access Holdings retained its position as the most active equity with 73.2 million units sold for N1.5 billion, Zenith Bank exchanged 33.4 million units worth N1.7 billion, Cutix transacted 29.7 million units valued at N63.0 million, GTCO traded 25.7 million units worth N1.7 billion, and Fidelity Bank transacted 19.7 million units valued at N374.2 million.

Economy

NASD Index Closes Lower by 0.31%

Published

9 hours ago

12/04/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange went down by 0.31 per cent on Friday, April 10, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) depreciating by 1038 points to 3,277.57 points from the previous session’s 3,287.85 points.

Similarly, the market capitalisation of the bourse depleted by N6.02 billion to close at N1.919 trillion from the N1.925 trillion it ended on Thursday.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gave away N2.95 to close at N35.55 per unit versus the previous day’s N38.50 per unit and Acorn Petroleum Plc lost 13 Kobo to end at N1.17 per share from the previous closing value of N1.30 per share.

During the session, there was a 750.8 per cent surge in the volume of securities transacted to 152.3 million units from the 18.1 million units transacted in the previous trading day, the value of transactions grew by 2,268.9 per cent to N4.6 billion from N192.9 million, and the number of deals went down by 20 per cent to 16 deals from 20 deals.

Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 153.6 million units sold for N4.9 billion, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 71.2 million units valued at N24.2 million.

However, Okitipupa Plc became the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 153.6 million valued at N4.9 billion, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 14.6 million units worth N562.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million.

Economy

Naira Appreciates to N1,611.08 Per Dollar at Official Market

Published

9 hours ago

12/04/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira closed the last trading session of the week in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on a positive note on Friday, April 11 with a gain of 1.2 per cent or N18.86 against the United States Dollar.

During the trading day, it was exchanged at the official forex market at N1,611.08/$1, in contrast to the N1,629.94/1 it was traded a day earlier.

The local currency strengthened yesterday at the currency market after the Dollar weakened in the international scene, making currencies like the Naira have a sigh of relief.

Also supporting this is efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to prop the market with the necessary liquidity.

However, the domestic currency depreciated against the British Pound Sterling at the spot market during the session by N5.57 to settle at N2,090.58/£1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N2,085.01/£1 and lost N10.18 against the Euro to sell for N1,815.82/€1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,805.64/€1.

At the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira traded flat against the greenback on Friday, remaining unchanged at N1,620/$1.

As for the cryptocurrency market, it was bullish after the US Dollar fell to a 3-year low and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation dropped sharply.

The drop in the greenback made it possible for investors and traders to buy more while the index came in at 2.7 per cent versus the anticipated 3.3 per cent while the core PPI print also surprised to the downside.

Solana (SOL) appreciated by 5.4 per cent to $123.31, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 4.3 per cent to $0.1638, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 3.2 per cent to $83,697.39, and (XRP) added 2.4 per cent to quote at $2.04, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 1.4 per cent to $587.41.

In addition, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 1.2 per cent to $1,573.75, Cardano grew by 0.3 per cent to $0.6234, Litecoin (LTC) also went up by 0.3 per cent to $76.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.