Economy
Expectations of Analysts at Stock Market This Week
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Last week was a very busy one at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as investors and analysts were engaged in the analysis of results of listed companies for the first quarter of 2019.
Though some companies disappointed with their earnings, especially Dangote Cement, which did not excite shareholders with its results, few others were amazing.
At the close of transactions last week, the stock market remained underwater, after losing 1.78 percent week-on-week to leave the year-to-date loss to 7.06 percent.
But this week, analysts at Cowry Asset said there should be a slight improvement in the market indices.
“In the new week, we expect domestic equities market to close marginally in green territory. Hence, we feel investors would take advantage of the low share prices to buy the dip,” they said.
According to analysts at Afrinvest, the lack of positive news to trigger buying pressure will continue to leave the market bleeding profusely and also make the bears and bulls fight for a firm control of the market.
“We view the market as lacking drivers for a sustained bullish run and so expect the market to continue to trade sideways, with profit-taking and bargain-hunting activities dominating an equal amount of trading session over the short term,” they said.
Consequently, the analysts opined that, “This week, we expect to see profit taking activities in some bellwether stocks which could potentially drive negative returns in the NSE ASI.
“However, we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook as investors’ sentiment show signs of improvement.”
In the view of analysts at Vetiva Research, “We expect a mixed trading pattern today and a positive bias, as investors look out for bargains on already beaten down stocks.
“We foresee activity levels remaining average in the absence of any catalyst to alter the trend.”
Business Post analysts are also of the view that there will likely not be any change in the performance of the market this week because of low confidence of investors at the moment.
“While we expect some investors to continue to load their portfolios with ‘good’ stocks trading at low prices at the moment, others will just use this opportunity to quickly take profit and watch the market from the sidelines.
“This started to manifest last week when the share price of one of the market’s newest darlings, Dangote Flour, began its downtrend last Friday after its initial rise as a result of news of the company’s proposed acquisition by Olam for N130 billion at the average share price of N26 per unit.
“We see the market still closing in the red zone at the end of this week and if there would be a rise, it would be very marginal.
“However, this is still the best time for smart investors to enter the market, especially when there are people willing to sell off some of their holdings,” analysts at Business Post said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Foreign Exchange (FX) demand pressure eased on the Naira on Wednesday, April 8, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) after gaining N14.84 or 1.07 per cent against the greenback to quote at N1,371.82/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,386.66/$1.
Also, the local currency appreciated against the Euro in the same market window at midweek by N1.54 to close at N1,604.07/€1 versus Tuesday’s closing rate of N1,605.61/€1, but lost N6.26 against the Pound Sterling to trade at N1,844.83/£1 versus N1,838.57/£1.
In the parallel market, the exchange rate of the Naira to the US Dollar remained unchanged yesterday at N1,410/$1, according to data sourced by Business Post.
There were indicators that the official FX market experienced a liquidity surge, which eased worries around the dominant US Dollar on Wednesday, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed interbank deals rose to 220 from 71 reported the previous day.
The domestic currency has been in strong demand from foreign portfolio investors seeking to purchase OMO bills and other fixed-income instruments.
Forecasts also show that the local currency will remain relatively stable during the second quarter of the year, trading within the N1,340 to N1,430 per Dollar band on improved FX liquidity, stronger oil earnings, and rising external reserves, which have climbed above 50 billion dollars.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it fell after an initial ceasefire-fueled rally, with markets retracing Wednesday’s “ceasefire euphoria” as cracks emerge in the US-Iran truce while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
Global risk assets face renewed pressure as geopolitical uncertainty combines with what analysts call “uncoordinated tightening” by major central banks, reinforcing higher-for-longer interest-rate expectations.
The price of Cardano (ADA) fell by 4.7 per cent to $0.2500, Ripple (XRP) slumped 3.7 per cent to $1.33, Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 3.5 per cent to $0.0915, Binance Coin (BNB) slipped 2.6 per cent to $600.02, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 2.5 per cent to $2,183.82, Solana (SOL) dipped 2.5 per cent to $82.24, and Bitcoin (BTC) depreciated by 1.1 per cent to $70,995.20.
However, TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.4 per cent to $0.3173, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rallied by 0.28 per cent on Wednesday despite weak investor sentiment, as the bourse ended with 18 price gainers and 38 price losers, implying a negative market breadth index.
The growth recorded yesterday by Customs Street was influenced by the 2.11 per cent rise posted by the energy index, and the 1.79 per cent jump achieved by the banking sector.
The other sectors experienced profit-taking, with the consumer goods losing 1.07 per cent, the insurance counter down by 0.36 per cent, and the industrial goods space down by 0.19 per cent.
Universal Insurance chalked up 10.00 per cent to sell for N1.21, Omatek improved by 9.78 per cent to N2.47, VFD Group expanded by 9.71 per cent to N11.30, CWG appreciated by 9.64 per cent to N21.05, and Livestock Feeds gained 9.56 per cent to close at N7.45.
On the flip side, UPDC REIT lost 10.00 per cent to settle at N6.75, Fortis Global Insurance shed 9.92 per cent to quote at N1.18, Deap Capital depreciated by 9.85 per cent to N5.40, Chams went down by 9.47 per cent to N3.06, and Japaul declined by 8.82 per cent to N3.10.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 562.43 points to 202,585.53 points from 202,023.10 points, and the market capitalisation advanced by N389 billion to N130.404 trillion from N130.015 trillion.
During the session, 1.0 billion stocks worth N40.6 billion exchanged hands in 52,723 deals compared with the 1.1 billion stocks valued at N40.3 billion executed in 78,006 deals a day earlier, indicating an uptick in the trading value by 0.74 per cent, and a shortfall in the trading volume and number of deals by 9.09 per cent and 32.41 per cent apiece.
The activity chart was led by Access Holdings, which sold 233.0 million units valued at N6.1 billion, Fidelity Bank exchanged 113.1 million units worth N2.2 billion, Wema Bank recorded a turnover of 103.3 million units valued at N2.7 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 60.6 million units for N6.5 billion, and Chams traded 47.5 million units worth N154.6 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil plummeted on Wednesday on hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
Brent crude futures moderated to $94.75 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased to $94.41 a barrel.
President Trump said on Wednesday that the US will work closely with Iran and will be talking about tariff and sanctions relief with Iran.
However, analysts cautioned that the ceasefire is a temporary two-week reprieve rather than a permanent resolution, and the global energy system remains fragile due to structural damage to regional infrastructure.
Reuters reported that Iran could open the strait in a limited and controlled way on Thursday or Friday ahead of a meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan.
Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that two ships appeared to have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran ceasefire deal. A Greek-owned bulk carrier and a Liberia-flagged vessel both transited the waterway early on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Israel carried out its heaviest strikes on Lebanon since the conflict with Hezbollah broke out last month, even as the Iran-aligned group paused attacks on northern Israel and Israeli troops in Lebanon under the ceasefire.
Also, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical artery bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, was reportedly hit in an Iranian drone attack. Prior to the attack, the pipeline was pumping at its emergency capacity of 7 million barrels per day to bypass the shuttered strait.
The strikes occurred just hours after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which has so far failed to halt regional hostilities. Other facilities in the kingdom were also targeted in the wave of strikes, which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed included oil facilities owned by American companies in Yanbu.
US crude stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels during the week ended April 3, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
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