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Economy

FBN Holdings: Lacklustre Performance Across Income Lines in Q3-17

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By Cordros Research

First Bank of Nigeria Holdings Plc (FBNH) released unaudited Q3-17 results yesterday, wherein gross earnings grew marginally by 1.85% q/q and 0.40% y/y (1.77% above our estimate), while PBT and PAT rose 28.01% q/q (71.19% y/y) and 24.44% q/q (145.47% y/y), respectively.

The growth in earnings is broadly supported by (1) growth in funding income (by 7.73% q/q and 17.43% y/y), which more than subdued the 6.57% and 37.91% y/y contraction in NIR (above our estimate by 13.30%) and (2) decline in opex by 3.51% q/q (+2.27% y/y) to miss our estimate by 4.14%.

The contraction in NIR stemmed from significant declines in dividend income (-50.62% q/q and +119.18% y/y), net gains on foreign exchange income (-72.86%q/q and -96.16% y/y), net gains on investment securities (-259.215 q/q and -270.29% y/y), net fee income (-7.95% q/q and -3.77% y/y), net insurance premium (-33.44% q/q and -23.79% y/y), and net gains on financial instruments (-37.77% q/q and -13.82% y/y). The cumulative impact more than offset the surge in other income (+233.80% q/q and +209.68% y/y).

The marginal growth in funding income (broadly in line with our estimate) reflects the lackluster performance on the interest income lines – investment securities (-1.515 q/q and +22.35% y/y), loans to banks (+3.95% q/q and -24.48% y/y), and loans to customers (+8.80% q/q and 12.23% y/y) – and interest expense lines – deposit to customers (-2.30% q/q and -2.74% y/y), deposit from banks (-17.26% q/q and +85.56% y/y) and borrowings (=8.43% q/q and -8.19% y/y).

Specifically, over 9M-17, gross earnings grew by 5.17%, in line with our estimate. While PBT declined 3.52%, PAT grew by 7.81%, both above our estimates of -6.82% and -1.85% respectively. The marginal growth in gross earnings over the period broadly reflects the impressive yield on interest earning assets (+210 bps to 12.28%) and consequently, robust interest income, which more than offset the significant decline in NIR (47.08%).

Over 9M-17, asset quality deterioration persisted. Despite 190 bps contraction in NPL to 20.10% compared to H1-17, annualized cost of risk remains elevated, rising 20 bps to 5.60% (annualized) following additional provisioning of N35.18 billion in Q3-17, which raised total loan loss provision during the period to N97.69 billion, albeit 14.93% lower compared to N114.72 billion in 9M-16.

However, noteworthy is the 90.08% y/y growth in net recoveries from loans previously written off (with an additional recovery of N1.32 billion over Q3) which we believe reflects the gradual improvements in the general commerce and manufacturing sectors following increased FX liquidity. FBNH reported CAR of 17.8% for the bank in FY-16 and 17.6% for H1-17. Relative to both periods, CAR contracted to 17.2% in 9M-17, though still largely above the required regulatory minimum of 16% for systemically important banks. The 40 bps contraction over Q3 leaves a lot to question.

Parsing through the balance sheet, FBNH’s loan book declined 7.52% y/y (albeit higher 2.27% relative to H1-17), while the holding of investment securities increased 6.43% y/y (+5.50% from H1-17 level). On the other hand, deposits declined marginally by 10.85 y/y and 1.94% over H1-17.

For the rest of 2017, we expect interest expense will remain elevated, as liquidity pressure (liquidity ratio was down to 47.4% in 9M-17, from 50.4% and 52.7% in H1-17 and FY-16, respectively) persists, and with the US Feds rate hike impact on the LIBOR further compounding the already stretched LCY interest rate.

Although we expect the re-pricing of assets, higher yields on investment securities, and FX interest income to support NIM, risk asset creation will remain subdued as the bank takes strategic steps to clean its loan portfolio.

On impairment charges, the bank’s restructuring of some FCY obligations reflected in the contraction in NPL during the period. We expect this to contract further, as the bulk of the upstream oil and gas reclassification reflects in the balance sheet, resulting in lower provisioning by FY-17 in line with our previous forecast.

Based on our last TP of N6.41, implying 4.23% upside from yesterday’s close price of N6.15, we have a HOLD recommendation on the stock. Our estimates are under review.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Nigeria, UK Move to Close £1.2bn Trade Data Gap

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trade value

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and the United Kingdom are moving to tackle a long-standing £1.2 billion discrepancy in their trade records, with both countries agreeing to develop a structured data-sharing system aimed at improving transparency and accountability across bilateral commerce.

The agreement was reached during a high-level meeting in London on March 18, 2026, held on the sidelines of President Bola Tinubu’s State Visit, under the Nigeria–United Kingdom Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP).

According to a statement by Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) spokesperson, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, the talks signal a shift toward deeper operational cooperation between both countries’ customs authorities.

At the centre of the discussions was a persistent mismatch in trade figures. While Nigeria recorded about £504 million worth of imports from the UK in 2024, British records show exports to Nigeria at approximately £1.7 billion for the same period, leaving a gap of roughly £1.2 billion.

To address this, the two countries agreed to explore a pre-arrival data exchange framework that will connect their digital customs systems, with the aim of improving risk management, reconciling trade data, and strengthening compliance monitoring along the corridor.

The meeting was led by Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi and Ms Megan Shaw, Head of International Customs and Border Engagement at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and also focused on customs modernisation and data transparency.

Mr Adeniyi underscored the broader economic implications of the initiative, noting that customs collaboration plays a central role in trade facilitation.

“Effective customs cooperation remains a critical enabler of economic growth and sustainable trade development,” he said.

He added that “customs administrations serve as the frontline institutions responsible for ensuring that trade flows between both countries are transparent, secure, and mutually beneficial.”

The Nigeria–UK trade relationship spans multiple sectors, including industrial goods, agriculture, energy, and consumer products — all of which depend heavily on efficient port and border operations.

Beyond addressing data gaps, the meeting also highlighted ongoing modernisation efforts on both sides. The UK showcased advancements in artificial intelligence-driven trade tools, digital verification systems, and real-time analytics designed to enhance cargo processing, risk assessment, and border security.

The engagement further produced plans for a Customs Mutual Administrative Assistance Framework, alongside technical groundwork for capacity building, knowledge exchange, and a joint engagement mechanism under the ETIP platform.

Mr Maiwada said the outcomes are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and support broader economic reforms.

“The NCS has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening international partnerships as part of a broader modernisation agenda designed to promote transparency, efficiency, and competitiveness in Nigeria’s trading environment,” the statement said.

It added that “insights from this engagement will strengthen its operational capacity, enhance trade facilitation, and support Nigeria’s economic reform objectives under the Renewed Hope programme.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.

The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.

Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.

Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

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Economy

Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue

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Sovereign Trust Insurance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.

The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.

A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.

The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.

Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.

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