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Economy

FSDH Lists Impact of CBN’s Naira Devaluation to N380/$1

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By Dipo Olowookere

Last Friday, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made the second devaluation of the Naira in 2020, crashing the value of the local currency to N380/$1 from N360/$1.

This move, according to insiders, was to adhere to the demands of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who have insisted that until the exchange rate system is unified, it may not release loans to the country.

Nigeria has struggled to earn forex as a result of the low prices of crude oil at the global market. The country largely depends on the sale of the commodity for revenue.

As a result of the low prices of the product since the beginning of this year, Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest economy and producer of oil, has recorded a huge shortfall in forex inflows.

This has consequently put too much pressure on the Naira at the foreign currencies market, selling at about N460/$1 at the black market.

Before the adjustment of the domestic currency last Friday by the CBN, it was first devalued to N360/$1 from N307/$1 earlier in the year.

But the latest move by the apex bank has generated mixed reactions, with some analysts projecting another devaluation probably later in 2020 so as to align with the parallel market rate, which the government still describes as illegal.

Analysts at FDSH Research, while commenting on the development, opined that the devaluation will favour government because it will earn more in Naira, but warned that it could raise the inflation rate.

The firm also noted that the adjustment was in line with the government’s agenda as contained in the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) launched in June in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

FSDH, while listing the expected of the devaluation by the central bank, noted that it will have positive implications on government revenue and in turn, reduce pressure on the exchange rate in the short term.

“However, other markets are expected to adjust accordingly, the move would translate to higher pressures in other markets like the parallel market, raising speculative concerns in the coming months.

“With the reserves at $36 billion and relatively stable oil price, there appears to be a considerable amount of firepower to intervene in the markets.

“But as economic activities improve, higher imports and lower foreign investment inflows relative to 2019 will add pressure on the reserves.

“Despite the adjustments, the CBN will continue to intervene to maintain exchange rate stability and prevent large FX fluctuations.

“The move is also expected to trigger a marginal increase in the inflation rate, particularly imported food inflation,” it submitted in its report titled Macroeconomic Review for 2020 Q2 and Outlook.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

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Economy

SEC Okays 50% Hike in X-Alert Fee for Capital Market Transactions

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a 50 per cent hike in the X-Alert service fee per transaction in the Nigerian capital market.

The X-Alert fee is a flat rate charged for sending real-time SMS/email notifications for transactions to investors from both buy and sell sides.

It was introduced by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) to replace percentage-based charges, aimed at increasing transparency and reducing total transaction costs for investors.

Investors were earlier charged N4 per SMS, but the country’s apex capital market regulator has approved a 50 per cent increase in X-Alert service fee, meaning the new rate is N6 per SMS.

Business Post gathered from one of the players in the ecosystem that the effective date for the new price was Thursday, March 26, 2026.

“We wish to inform you of a revision to the X-Alert (SMS) service fee applicable to transactions executed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

“Following approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the X-Alert fee has been reviewed upward from N4.00 to N6.00 per transaction,” the notice sighted by this newspaper read.

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Economy

World Bank Projects 4.2% Growth for Nigeria Amid Risks

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s economy is projected to remain resilient in the face of mounting global uncertainties, with the World Bank forecasting a 4.2 per cent growth rate in 2026.

However, the global lender has warned that rising fuel costs and persistent inflation, worsened by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could undermine household incomes and slow poverty reduction.

Speaking in Abuja, the bank’s lead economist for Nigeria, Mr Fiseha Haile, noted that while the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed up prices, overall economic activity has remained largely intact.

“Overall business activity has been expanding over the past few ​months, suggesting the impact on growth has been relatively contained. But the shock is still ⁠being felt through higher inflation,” Mr Haile said.

According to him, business activity has continued to expand in recent months, indicating that the broader impact on growth has been “relatively contained,” even as inflationary pressures intensify.

Nigeria’s inflation rate, though significantly reduced from around 33 per cent in December 2024 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026, remains elevated compared to regional peers.

“Inflation is still elevated and under ‌increasing ⁠pressure, and that poses risks to incomes and poverty reduction,” Mr Haile said.

The renewed surge in fuel prices, reportedly rising by over 50 per cent during the Iran conflict, has had a ripple effect on transportation, food, and production costs, amplifying the cost-of-living crisis.

The World Bank urged Nigerian authorities to adopt prudent macroeconomic measures, including tightening monetary policy, avoiding blanket subsidies, and saving windfalls from higher oil prices to strengthen fiscal buffers.

It also recommended reconsidering restrictions on fuel imports as a potential tool to ease inflationary pressures.

The economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu — including the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, and tax restructuring — were acknowledged as ambitious steps aimed at stabilising the economy.

These reforms have contributed to improved external buffers, with rising foreign exchange reserves and reduced volatility.

Additionally, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit stood at 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, while the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade.

Yet, the World Bank cautioned that tighter global financial conditions could still pose risks to capital inflows, borrowing costs, and remittances.

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