Economy
How to Solve Africa’s Power Distribution Problems
By Anastasia Walsh
Electrification is an on-going and foundational investment, and a necessary one to realize all modern-day development objectives. Despite bullish policies, the fact remains that over 640 million Africans lack access to electricity. The effect of this is apparent. It impedes economic growth; it inhibits the advancements of self-reliant local communities, and it threatens national security. African governments are beginning to rethink their electrification plans. Grid modernisation, specifically the deployment of microgrids in rural areas, provides a promising strategy.
The Centralized Utility Model Is Not Adequately Serving Africa’s Needs
Attempting to replicate the centralized utility models implemented in the U.S. and Europe has not succeeded in improving energy access across the continent. Despite this, it seems many governments and utilities wrongly maintain the position that the expansion of the traditional grid infrastructure is the solution. In areas where communities have access to the central grid, they still have to supplement the intermittency of the power with diesel generators. On the flip side, the utilities are financially strained because they are unable to collect revenues from their customers. The low rate of revenue collection is due to the unsustainable tariffs the providers impose on customers as a result of the political pressure exerted on them. This results in the utilities being unable to finance upgrades in infrastructure, further exacerbating the issues.
Those who favor the expansion of the central grid as the most effective means of increasing rates of electrification face the challenge of reconciling two contradicting positions. The first position is that increasing access requires lowering tariffs. The second position is that lowering tariffs will intensify the financial stress utilities are currently under. Neither of these positions is sustainable. The incorporation of microgrids into a hybrid system of electrification is the best solution.
Grid Modernisation and Microgrids
Microgrids are small-scale power grids that run on a combination of solar, wind, or biomass or fossil fuels to provide reliable power. They operate either independently from the main grid or can be synched to it at the same voltage to shift the energy and respond to peaks and troughs in supply and demand. This ensures there is no interruption in power supply, allowing communities to be more energy independent by cutting costs and providing reliable energy access.
Productive Use of Energy (PUE) is Key
The off-grid solar lighting market is thriving thanks to the falling prices of renewable energy equipment. The solar lighting market has been further bolstered by widespread deployment of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) payment systems that utilize mobile-money technology. These solar devices provide sufficient generation for low consumption needs like household lighting, charging cell phones, and the use of small household appliances. Despite its attractiveness to householders, off-grid solar lighting is currently not scalable. The deployment of microgrids will be necessary to provide the adequate output required to power commercial businesses, hospitals, schools. Demand for electricity from small industry and business, which is classified as the productive use of energy will determine the success of microgrids; without this demand, the deployment of microgrids will not be financially viable. Ensuring the Productive Use of Energy enhances the economic and social development impacts of microgrids and rural electrification in the wider context.
Leading The Way: Kenya and Nigeria
Africa is forecast to be the world’s fastest-growing market for microgrids at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 27%, representing 1,145MW by 2027. Within the continent, Kenya and Nigeria are at the forefront of the grid modernisation revolution.
With strong renewable energy and microgrid policies, Kenya has doubled its energy access rates since 2014. To reach its goal of 100% electrification by 2030, Kenya should implement a hybrid-decentralized system. This entails a combination of traditional utility distribution and the deployment of an extensive network of microgrids. The prevalent use of mobile money in the region, if harnessed correctly will provide the best means of collecting payment of energy bills. Nigeria similarly has ambitions to drastically increase their generating capacity by 2030 with 30% of that planned to be from renewable sources. Microgrids are expected to provide 5.3GW of this increased generation capacity.
Nation-Specific Policies
To improve energy access, African nations should consider incorporating the following into their policies: First, targeting rural populations for distributed energy via microgrids; then implementing low-cost and low-barrier permitting and licensing rules with standardized quality control and operating requirements; and finally ensuring that electrification strategies are financially viable.
Decentralized/hybrid solutions such as microgrids are the most cost-effective solution. The PAYGO business model provides an efficient means for project developed to collect revenues from their investments. Despite the tendency to paint all sub-Saharan countries with the same brush, as it relates to electrification rates, this is especially inappropriate. When it comes to implementing electrification and grid modernisation strategies, policymakers should consider their countries unique geography, natural resources, climate, population density, and power demand patterns.
Anastasia Walsh is from International Energy Consultant in Johannesburg
Economy
Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Drops Slightly to 1.422mb/d in December 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.436 million barrels per day in November, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), quoting primary sources, noted that the oil output was below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota for the nation.
The OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million barrels per day, Q2: 1.481 million barrels per day, Q3: 1.444 million barrels per day, and 1.42 million barrels per day in Q4.
However, the cartel acknowledged that despite the gradual decrease in oil production, Nigeria’s non-oil sector grew in the second half of last year.
The organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”
According to the report, cooling inflation, a stronger Naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
“A stronger naira, easing food prices due to the harvest, and a cooling in core inflation also point to gradually fading underlying pressures”, the report noted.
It forecast inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.
OPEC, however, stated that while preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.
Economy
NBS Puts Nigeria’s December Inflation Rate at 15.15% After Recalculation
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday revealed that inflation rate for December 2025 stood at 15.15 per cent compared with the 14.45 per cent it put the previous month.
However, it recalculated the November 2025 inflation rate at 17.33 per cent after using a 12-month index reference period where the average consumer price index (CPI) for the 12 months of 2024 is equated to 100. This is a departure from the single-month index reference period, in which December 2024 was set to 100, which would have produced an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate.
The NBS had earlier informed stakeholders a few days ago that it was changing its methodology for inflation to reflect the economic reality. This is coming after the organisation changed the base year from 2009 to 2024 earlier in 2025.
In its report released today, the stats agency explained that this process was in line with international best practice as contained in the Consumer Price Index Inter-national Monetary Fund (IMF) Manual, specifically in Section 9.125 and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Manual, which address index reference period maximisation, following a rebasing exercise.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2025 was 0.54 per cent, lower than the 1.22 per cent recorded in November 2025.
The NBS also revealed that on a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate for last month stood at 14.85 per cent versus 37.29 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it jumped to 0.99 per cent from 0.95 per cent in the preceding month.
As for the rural inflation rate in December 2025, it stood at 14.56 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 32.47 per cent in December 2024, and on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.55 per cent from 1.88 per cent in November 2025.
It was also disclosed that food inflation rate in December 2025 was 10.84 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 39.84 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.36 per cent from 1.13 per cent in November 2025 (1.13%).
This was attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, grounded pepper, fresh onions and others.
Economy
LIRS Reminds Companies of Annual Tax Returns Filing Deadline
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Companies operating in Lagos State have been reminded of their obligations to file their annual tax returns for the 2025 financial year on or before January 31, 2026.
This reminder was given by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement made available to Business Post on Thursday.
In the notice signed by the chairman of the tax agency, Mr Ayodele Subair, it was stressed that filing the tax returns is an obligation as stipulated in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025.
He explained that employers are required to file detailed returns on emoluments and compensation paid to their employees, as well as payments made to their service providers, vendors and consultants, and to ensure that all applicable taxes due for the year 2025 are fully remitted.
Mr Subair emphasised that filing of annual returns is a mandatory legal obligation, and warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including administrative penalties, as prescribed under the new tax law.
According to Section 14 of the NTAA, employers are required to file detailed annual returns of all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. Such returns must be filed and submitted not later than January 31 each year.
“Employers must prioritise the timely filing of their annual income tax returns. Compliance should be part of our everyday business practice.
“Early and accurate filing not only ensures adherence to the law as required by the Nigerian Constitution, but also supports effective revenue tracking, which is important to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability,” he noted.
The LIRS chief disclosed that electronic filing via the organisation’s eTax platform remains the only approved and acceptable mode of filing, as manual submissions have been completely phased out. This measure, he said, is aimed at simplifying and standardising tax administration processes in the state.
Employers are therefore required to submit their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.
Dr Subair described the channel as secure, user-friendly, accessible 24/7, and designed to provide employers with a convenient and efficient means of fulfilling their tax obligations, advising firms to ensure that the tax identification number (Tax ID) of all employees is correctly captured in their filings, noting that employees without a Tax ID must generate one promptly to avoid disruptions during the filing process.
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