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IEA Forecast Improved Oil Demand of 92.1mbpd in 2020

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By Adedapo Adesanya

  • Global oil supply falls to nine-year low in June.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has increased its 2020 oil demand forecast on Friday to 92.1 million barrels per day, up 400,000 barrels per day from its outlook in June, citing a lesser decline than expected in the second quarter of the year.

In its monthly oil report published on Friday, it noted that the appetite for oil still remain weakened by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which is suppressing overall oil demand.

It said global oil demand is forecast to average 92.1 million barrels per day in 2020 and 97.4 million barrels per day in 2021.

According to the Paris-based organisation, global oil demand will decline by 7.9 million barrels per day in 2020 but recover by 5.3 million barrels per day in 2021. However, it added, “the recent increase in COVID-19 cases and the introduction of partial lockdowns introduces more uncertainty to the forecast.”

“While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress, the large, and in some countries, accelerating the number of COVID-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said.

On the supply side of things, the agency noted that global supply had declined to its lowest level since 2011 due to massive production cuts made by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies known as OPEC+.

It noted that oil supply globally plunged to an average of 86.9 million barrels per day in June, down 2.4 million barrels per day from May.

In a breakdown, it said all participating members in the OPEC cuts supplied 27.2 million barrels per day in June, down by 1.9 million barrels per day from the previous month’s level of 29.1 million barrels in May.

Also, non-OPEC oil supply decreased to 59.7 million barrels per day in June, a fall of 0.5 million barrels daily from May’s level of 60.1 million barrels per day.

This brought down the world’s total oil supply to the lowest level in nine years, dropping by 2.39 million barrels per day from 89.3 million barrels per day in May to 86.9 million barrels per day last month.

“During June, global oil output tumbled to a nine-year low after Saudi Arabia cut an extra 1 million barrels per day below its OPEC+ target and output in both Iraq and the US fell by around 0.5 million barrels per day.

“Record OPEC+ cuts drove most of the decline in June. The group cut crude output by nearly 2 million bpd more than in May, lifting its overall cut above 10 million bpd and boosting compliance to 108% from 88% a month earlier,” the IEA said.

The easing of lockdown measures in many countries caused a strong rebound to fuel deliveries in May, June and likely also July, the IEA added.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria Makes Maiden AfCFTA Shipment to Kenya

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s maiden shipment under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has successfully arrived at the Mombasa Port in Kenya.

According to the Nigeria AfCFTA Coordination Office in a statement, the development marks a historic moment for Africa’s trade landscape.

The Senior Trade Expert at the Nigeria AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mr Olusegun Olutayo, said in line with its mandate under the leadership of the National Coordinator, Mr Olusegun Awolowo, the office had coordinated the landmark event.

He said the achievement marked a significant milestone for Nigeria in realising the vision of increased intra-African trade and economic integration championed by the agreement in line with the decision of the AU Assembly at the 31st Ordinary Session of the Assembly.

“In times of escalating geopolitical tension and looming geo-economic fragmentation, AfCFTA presents a perfect opportunity for Africa to leverage trade as a strategic instrument for enhanced market access among state parties.

“This is a historic moment, a realisation of the vision of our continent’s founding fathers and mothers.”

He also said the first consignment which was a synthetic filaments product of Nigeria’s Lucky Fibres Limited (Lush), a subsidiary of the Tolaram Group, was exported under AfCFTA preferential terms.

Mr Olutayo lauded the bold economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu, emphasising their catalytic role in enabling the country’s active participation in AfCFTA, fostering continental economic integration and industrialisation goals.

He also commended the seamless cooperation and commitment from Kenyan authorities, which exemplifies the true spirit of AfCFTA.

He acknowledged the pivotal leadership role of the AfCFTA Secretariat in fostering the success and emphasised the collaborative efforts of the Kenya AfCFTA Implementation Committee and the Kenya Revenue Authority (Customs).

According to him, the shipment, exported under AfCFTA preferential trade terms, underscores partnership, shared vision, the agreement’s potential to transform Africa’s economic landscape and pave the way for a new era of trade-driven prosperity.

The AfCFTA seeks to create a single market across Africa by reducing barriers to trade, investment, and labour.

The agreement’s goal is to increase socioeconomic development, reduce poverty, and make Africa more competitive globally.

On March 21, 2018, the AfCFTA agreement was adopted and opened for signature in Kigali, Rwanda. The agreement entered into force on May 30, 2019 and officially commenced on January 2021

Former President Muhammadu Buhari established the National Action Committee on AfCFTA (NAC) in December 2019.

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Economy

Capital Market Operators Get January 31 Deadline for Licence Renewal

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fixed January 31 as deadline for all Capital Market Operators (CMOs) to renew their operating licence.

In a circular to the operators on Sunday, the apex regulatory agency in the country’s capital market said the annual registration renewal would last between January 1 and 31, 2025.

SEC said the annual registration renewal enforcement for CMOs was aimed at ensuring that only “fit and proper” persons operate in the capital market, warning that CMOs without valid registration will be penalised and may be excluded from capital market activities.

”This is to inform all CMOs and the general public that the annual renewal of registration of CMOs for the year 2025 will commence from January 01.

“All CMOs applying for renewal are required to include their 2025 annual subscription receipt from their respective trade groups as part of their application.

“In line with the commission’s Rules & Regulations, all CMOs are to complete the process of renewal of registration for 2025 on or before January 31 via registration renewal portal at www.eportal.sec.gov.ng,” it said.

The commission added that CMOs desiring to make enquiries or get support to complete the process should contact [email protected].

The regulator said it had in 2021 re-introduced periodic registration renewal by CMOs to create a reliable active operators’ data bank in the country’s capital market.

It said the renewal arrangement aimed at updating operators information on capital market for official use by local and foreign investors, other regulatory agencies and the public.

The agency added that the renewals would drastically reduce incidences of unethical practices by CMOs which may affect investors’ confidence and impact the capital market negatively, noting that the exercise will strengthen supervision and monitoring of CMOs by the commission.

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Economy

Seven Equities Boost NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 1.24%

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The third trading week of 2025 ended on a positive note at the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange, with seven equities on the platform inspiring a 1.24 per cent growth.

Consequently, the market capitalisation of the bourse increased by N21.56 billion during the five-day trading week to N1.075 trillion from the N1.053 trillion quoted in the preceding week (Week 2) as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) expanded by 37.98 points to 3,111.91 points from the 3,073.93 points it ended in the preceding week.

In the period under review, the volume of transactions went down by 42.1 per cent to 9.45 million units from the 16.30 million units in the previous week, as the value of trades declined by 53.1 per cent to N48.4 million from the N104.11 million, with these transactions completed in 122 deals involving 15 different stocks.

Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 50 per cent in the week to close at 36 Kobo per share versus 34 Kobo per share, Mixta Real Estate Plc increased by 20 per cent to end at N2.58 per unit compared with the previous week’s N2.15 per unit, and Okitipupa Plc rose by 10 per cent to N39.59 per share from N35.99 per share.

Further, UBN Property Plc grew by 10 per cent to N2.20 per unit from N2.02 per unit, Newrest Asl Plc jumped by 9.9 per cent to N31.38 per share from N28.53 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc surged by 3.7 per cent to N39.65 per unit from N38.22 per unit, and 11 Plc advanced by 0.3 per cent to N256.00 per share from N255.31 per share.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc topped the activity chart last week by value with with N0.030 billion, 11 Plc recorded N0.009 billion, Central Security Clearing System (CSCS) Plc raked in N0.004 billion, IGI Plc followed with N0.002 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc recorded N0.002 billion.

However, IGI Plc was the most traded instrument by volume with 7.5 million units, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc transacted 0.77 million units, UBN Property Plc recorded 0.38 million, Geo-Fluids Plc traded 0.37 million units, and CSCS Plc posted 0.16 million units.

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