Economy
Inflation Rate to Further Drop to 16.13% on Base Effect
By FSDH Research
We expect the May 2017 inflation rate (year-on-year) to drop to 16.13 percent from 17.24 percent recorded in the month of April 2017.
The drop is expected to come mainly as a result of base effect from the increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in May 2016 despite the elevated consumer prices recorded in May 2017.
The sharp increase in the prices of consumer goods in May 2017 show that inflationary pressure persists in Nigeria.
Based on the data release calendar on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website, we expect the NBS to release the inflation rate for the month of May 2017 on June 15, 2017.
The monthly Food Price Index (FPI) that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released today shows that the Index rebounded in May 2017 following three months of consecutive decline. The Index averaged 172.6 points, 2.19 percent higher than the revised value for April 2017, as all the sub-indices increased except sugar.
The FAO Dairy Price Index increased by 5.15 percent in May, as prices for all categories of dairy products were on the increase.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was up by 4.74 percent, primarily driven by increase in both palm and soy oil prices occasioned by the rising global imports demand, low inventories and robust consumption particularly in the United States. The prices of meat have continued to trend upward since the beginning of the year 2017. The FAO Meat Price Index was up 1.47 percent as prices for pig, bovine and ovine meat all increased, while those of poultry meat were stable.
The FAO Cereal Price Index was up by 1.40 percent, largely on account of the increase in the prices of wheat and rice.
Meanwhile, the price of maize was modest due to large global supply. On the flip side, the continued fall in the price of sugar due to the weak global import demand, improved supply conditions in the main sugar producing regions in Brazil and the sudden depreciation in currency of the Brazilian Real weighed on the sugar Index.
Hence, the FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 2.31 percent in May 2017 to a 13-month low.
Our analysis indicates that the value of the Naira appreciated at both the inter-bank and parallel market.
The Naira gained 0.15 percent and 3.66 percent to close at N305.40/$ and N382/$ at both the inter-bank and parallel market at the end of May 2017 respectively. The appreciation in the Naira is expected to have countered the effect of the rising prices of food at the international market to certain extent. This should lead to a moderation in the pass through effect of imported prices on consumer goods in Nigeria.
The prices of most of the food items that FSDH Research monitored in May 2017 increased substantially. The prices of tomatoes, Irish potatoes, yam, meat, rice and sweet potatoes were up by 88.16 percent, 36.8 percent, 32.42 percent, 4.76 percent, 2.54 percent and 0.6 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, the prices of onions, vegetable oil, beans, garri and fish were stable. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 2.5 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 240.28 points.
We also noticed increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between April 2017 and May 2017.
Our model indicates that the general price movements in the consumer goods and services in May 2017 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 230.30 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.78 percent.
We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in May 2017 would produce an inflation rate of 16.13 percent lower than the 17.24 percent recorded in April 2017.
Source: FSDH Research
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
All individual taxpayers in Lagos State have been advised to file their annual tax returns ahead of the March 31 deadline.
This appeal was made by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement issued by its Head of Corporate Communications, Mrs Monsurat Amasa-Oyelude.
The notice quoted the chairman of LIRS, Mr Ayodele Subair, as saying that timely filing remains both a constitutional and statutory obligation as well as a civic responsibility.
The statutory filing requirement applies to all taxable persons, including self-employed individuals, business owners, professionals, persons in the informal sector, and employees under the Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) scheme.
In accordance with Section 24(f) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Sections 13 &14(3) of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act 2025 (NTAA), every individual with taxable income is required to submit a true and correct return of total income from all sources for the preceding year (January 1 to December 31, 2025) within 90 days of the commencement of a new assessment year.
“Filing of annual tax returns is not optional. It is a legal requirement under the Nigeria Tax Administration Act 2025. We encourage all Lagos residents earning taxable income to file early and accurately.
“Early and accurate filing not only ensures full adherence with statutory requirements, but supports effective monitoring and forecasting, which are critical to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and long-term sustainability,” Mr Subair stated.
He further noted that failure to file returns by the statutory deadline attracts administrative penalties, interest, and other enforcement measures as prescribed by law.
To enhance convenience and efficiency, all individual tax returns must be submitted electronically via the LIRS eTax portal at https://etax.lirs.net. The platform enables taxpayers to register, file returns, upload supporting documents, and manage their tax profiles securely from anywhere.
In keeping with global best practices, Mr Subair reiterated that LIRS continues to prioritise digital tax administration and taxpayer support services. He affirmed that the LIRS eTax platform is secure and accessible worldwide. Taxpayers requiring assistance may visit any of the LIRS offices or other channels.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has said the Gas Master Plan 2026 targets over 230 per cent scale-up of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply from 1.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 5 MTPA this year.
The Executive Vice President for Gas, Power and New Energy at NNPC, Mr Olalekan Ogunleye, unveiled the strategic direction of the NNPC Gas Master Plan 2026, outlining an aggressive expansion drive to position Nigeria as a regional and global gas powerhouse.
Mr Ogunleye delivered the keynote address at the 2026 Lagos Energy Week, organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), where he detailed plans to accelerate gas development, deepen infrastructure and significantly scale domestic supply.
According to him, the Gas Master Plan targets a scale-up of LPG or cooking gas supply from 1.5 MTPA to 5 MTPA, alongside expanded feedstock for Mini-LNG and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) projects.
“The NNPC Gas Master Plan 2026 is a blueprint to unlock Nigeria’s vast gas potential and translate it into tangible economic value,” Mr Ogunleye said.
He added that the strategy would also drive exponential growth in Gas-Based Industries, GBIs, strengthening local manufacturing, fertiliser production and power generation.
“Our renewed focus is on turning abundant gas resources into inclusive economic growth and improved quality of life for Nigerians,” he stated.
Mr Ogunleye said the plan aligns with the Federal Government’s Decade of Gas initiative and the presidential production targets of achieving 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and 12 BCF/D by 2030.
Industry leaders at the event, including executives from Chevron Corporation, Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Limited, Midwestern Oil and Gas Company Limited, Abuja Gas Processing Company and Shell Nigeria Gas, commended the plan and praised Ogunleye’s leadership in driving implementation excellence.
The new blueprint signals NNPC’s determination to anchor Nigeria’s energy transition on gas, leveraging infrastructure expansion and domestic utilisation to consolidate the country’s status as Africa’s largest gas reserve holder.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Vice President Kashim Shettima has attributed the Naira’s recent depreciation to the intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the foreign exchange (FX) market, stating that the currency could have strengthened to around N1,000 per Dollar within weeks if the apex bank had allowed market forces to prevail.
The local currency has dropped over N8.37 on the Dollar in the last week, as it closed at N1,355.37/$1 on Tuesday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), after it went on a spree late last month and into the early weeks of February.
However, speaking on Tuesday at the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF), Renewed Hope Ambassadors Strategic Summit in Abuja, the Nigerian VP said the intervention was to ensure stability.
“In fact, if not for the interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria yesterday, the 1,000 Naira to a Dollar we are going to attain in weeks, not in months. But for the purpose of market stability, the CBN generously intervened yesterday.
“So, for some of my friends, especially one of our party leaders who takes delight in stockpiling dollars, it is a wake-up call,” the vice president said.
He was alluding to CBN buying US Dollars from the market to slow down the rapid rise of the Naira.
Latest information showed that last week, the apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.
The move was aimed at preventing foreign portfolio investors from exiting Nigeria’s fixed-income market, as large-scale sell-offs could heighten demand for US Dollars, intensify capital flight, and exert further pressure on the exchange rate.
Amid this, speaking after the 304th meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN on Tuesday, Governor of the central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, said Nigeria’s gross external reserves have risen to $50.45 billion, the highest level in 13 years.
This strengthens the country’s foreign exchange buffers, enhances the apex bank’s capacity to defend the Naira when needed, and boosts investor confidence in the stability of the Nigerian FX market.
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