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Inflation to Moderate to 11.01% in July—FSDH

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

It has been predicted that inflation rate in Nigeria for the month of July 2019 will go down to 11.01 percent from 11.22 percent recorded in the month of June 2019.

In their Inflation Watch report, analysts at the research arm of Lagos-based investment company, FSDH Merchant Bank Ltd, attributed the expected easing of the rate “largely to the harvest season.”

The inflation rate target of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is between 6 percent and 9 percent and as earlier noted, FSDH said Nigeria will unlikely achieve a single-digit rate of inflation in the short-term.

“We must also note that an increase in the inflation rate is not entirely bad, as a reasonable increase in general prices is important to encourage production.

“No manufacturer will be encouraged to produce in an environment when the prices of the goods that are produced are going down. What most countries and central banks are guarding against is an excessive increase in general prices,” the report said.

Business Post reports that on Friday, August 16, 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the July 2019 inflation figure to the general public and if this prediction is correct, it would be the second consecutive month the inflation rate is moderating and it would be the lowest inflation rate recorded in Nigeria since February 2016.

In the last few years, the apex monetary authority has been initiating several policies to help promote the agricultural sector. The aim of this is to boost agricultural yields, which would in turn kerb general price increases.

According to FSDH, the CBN’s focus on the agricultural sector is deliberate, as food prices significantly affect the country’s inflation rate.

Looking at the movement of food prices in the international market, the overall price of a basket of certain food items dropped in July relative to June 2019.

In its July 2019 Food Price Index, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) observed that the prices of food items in the international market decreased during the month.

The FAO further noted that the prices of cereal, dairy products and sugar decreased between June and July 2019. The drop offset the increase in the prices of oils and meat recorded during the same period.

Despite the expected decrease in the inflation rate in the next few months, FSDH Research expects increased volatility in the inter-bank rates and a gradual increase in the rates at the Open Market Operations (OMOs) from August through to December 2019.

“This is due to huge maturities in excess of N9.62 trillion of government securities which we expect to hit the Nigerian financial market during the period.

“Ordinarily, the expected large inflow of funds into the financial system may lead to inflationary pressure.

“In this situation, the way to manage the expected high liquidity is for the CBN to increase its ‘mopping-up’ activities in the inter-bank market, leading to an increase in the OMO rate.

“Therefore, we conclude that the next few months will throw up some interesting financing and investment opportunities in the Nigerian financial market,” the report said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

NNPC Gets Approval for $20bn Final Investment Decision on Bonga Deepwater Project

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A targeted fiscal incentive designed to unlock the long-awaited Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Bonga Southwest Aparo (BSWA) deepwater project has been approved by President Bola Tinubu.

The approval followed months of intensive technical and commercial negotiations involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited as the concessionaire, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Olu Verheijen, and the chief executive of Shell, Mr Wael Sawan.

In a statement signed on Tuesday by the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC, Mr Andy Odeh, it was disclosed that the project is estimated to attract about $20 billion in Foreign Direct Investment and position Nigeria for a new era of deepwater production.

It was said that it has the potential to attract strategic investments and accelerate sustainable economic growth, adding that it signals renewed confidence in Nigeria’s policy direction and its resolve to translate reform momentum into tangible investment outcomes.

The chief executive of NNPC, Mr Bashir Bayo Ojulari, said, “This approval is a testament to the President’s leadership, NNPC’s disciplined execution and our ability to structure complex, bankable transactions that deliver value for Nigeria.

“For nearly two decades, the Bonga Southwest project remained stalled. Today, under President Tinubu’s reform-driven leadership and through NNPC’s sustained advocacy, we have broken that logjam. This is what partnership, persistence, and policy clarity can achieve.”

“This milestone further affirms NNPC’s commitment, under the President’s leadership, to unlocking Nigeria’s vast energy potential through partnerships, disciplined innovation and execution excellence,” he further stated.

The Bonga Southwest project will be the first FID on a Nigeria deepwater Production Sharing Contract asset since 2008, re-establishing Nigeria as a premier deepwater investment destination.

The fiscal package approved by President Tinubu includes an enhanced Production Tax Credit and resolution of the 2021 dispute settlement agreement, creating a competitive framework that balances national value with investor returns.

The Bonga Southwest Aparo project, operated by Shell with all IOCs in Nigeria as partners, will create over 5,000 direct and indirect jobs, and deliver 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil and 140 million standard cubic feet per day of gas upon completion.

NNPC Limited, as concessionaire, worked closely with SNEPCo and the broader contractor party to develop alternative fiscal solutions that address structural constraints while protecting Nigeria’s long-term interests.

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Economy

Nigeria Posts N5.17trn Surplus as Trade Value Falls to N36.02trn in Q1 2025

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N5.17 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report.

This affirmed that the country’s exports rose faster than imports for yet another quarter.

The report showed that the country’s total merchandise trade stood at N36.02 trillion in the period under review, higher than the N33.93 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024 by 6.19 per cent, but lower than the N36.60 trillion achieved in the previous quarter by 1.58 per cent.

Total exports were valued at N20.60 trillion, accounting for 57.18 per cent of total trade. This represents a 7.42 per cent increase from ₦19.18 trillion recorded in the first quarter of 2024 and 2.92 per cent higher than the N20.01 trillion posted in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Meanwhile, imports came in at N15.43 trillion during the period, 4.59 per cent more than the N14.75 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024, but 7.02 per cent lower than the N16.59 trillion of the preceding quarter.

The NBS report showed that Nigeria’s export trade continued to be dominated by crude oil, which was valued at N12.96 trillion and accounted for about 62.89 per cent of total exports, while non-crude oil exports were valued at N7.64 trillion, representing 37.11 per cent of total exports, and non-oil products contributed N3.17 trillion or 15.38 per cent of the export value.

The NBS noted that India, the Netherlands, the United States, France and Spain were Nigeria’s major export partners during the quarter.

On the import side, China remained Nigeria’s largest trading partner, followed by India, the United States, the Netherlands and the United Arab Emirates.

Major commodities exported during the period included crude oil, liquefied natural gas, petroleum gases, urea and cocoa beans, while key imports included gas oil, motor spirit, crude petroleum oils, cane sugar for refining and durum wheat.

The stats office added that the country’s positive trade balance rose by more than 50 per cent compared with the previous quarter, reflecting a stronger export performance

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Economy

Tinubu Writes Senate to Confirm Oyedele as Minister, Magnus Abe as NUPRC Chair

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By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu on Tuesday asked the Senate to screen and confirm Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the Minister of State for Finance, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite.

The President made the request through a letter read on the floor of the Senate by the Senate President, Mr Godswill Akpabio, after a three-week recess for the budget defence exercise.

The request was subsequently referred to the Committee of the Whole for further legislative consideration.

President Tinubu also sought the confirmation of Mr Magnus Abe as Chairman of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), alongside two commissioner nominees.

The Senate President also read another letter from the President seeking confirmation of Mr Mainasara Illo as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Nigeria Anti-Doping Centre. The nomination was referred to the Senate committees on Narcotics and Drugs and Sports for joint screening.

Another letter from Mr Tinubu sought confirmation of Mr Francis Ifeanyi Asogwa as a commissioner representing the South-East in a federal commission. The nomination was referred to the Senate Committee on Judiciary, Human Rights, and Legal Matters for screening.

The Senate also received requests from the President to confirm two nominees as commissioners of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission: Mrs Amina Gamawa from Bauchi State and Mr Abdullahi Murktar from Kaduna State.

All nominations have been referred to the relevant committees for further legislative action and screening.

The nomination of the former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) as minister was announced in a statement by presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, last week.

Mrs Uzoka-Anite will now move to the Ministry of Budget and National Planning, as the Minister of State, her third portfolio in the administration, the presidential spokesman added.

The 50-year-old is a public policy expert, an accountant, and an economist.

He attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in accountancy and finance.

Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.

The Senate also received the 2026 statutory budget of the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) from President Tinubu for consideration and approval.

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