Economy
Investors Renew Confidence in Nigerian Real Estate Sector
By Dipo Olowookere
With Nigeria finally out of recession, there is a renewed sense of investor confidence in the Nigerian real estate sector.
An expert in the field, Mr Tom Mundy, who is the Head of Advisory for Sub-Saharan Africa at JLL, says he believes 2018 will be a year of consolidation and recovery.
Mr Mundy, who would speak at the 2017 edition of West African Property Investment Summit (WAPI) next week, commented that, “Nigeria is finally coming out of recession. Of course, there will be the usual lag between economic recovery and market recovery, but real estate, which has suffered from a sharp supply demand imbalance, widening vacancy rates and falling realised rents, looks close to bottoming. Yes, it will take time for confidence to return fully but there is sound cause to be bullish on Nigeria going forward.”
This positive take on the region is the subject of a paper Mr Mundy will publish at the West Africa Property Investment Summit slated for November 28-29, 2017 at the Eko Atlantic Hotel in Lagos.
In it, he unpacks five key drivers that support the path of improvement.
Firstly, there is increasing optimism as the economy kicks into gear. Mundy says that as the external environment improves, and the government bolsters its fiscal position, so too will sentiment for the Naira. Inflationary pressures are under control and household income outlook is reasonably robust. Add to this the recovery of the oil price and the picture is looking brighter.
Secondly, government policy making is gaining some credibility through coherent plans to support diversification and fiscal consolidation with the backing of external bodies.
Thirdly, there is evidence that the decline in rental rates in Lagos is reaching the bottom of the cycle. While the advantage still rests with the occupier in both corporate and retail markets, Mundy believes this will close through 2018 as the economy recovers.
Fourth, the legislative framework is in place for real estate pricing to mitigate the impact of a volatile economy. This is vital to support greater liquidity. It will allow for a more efficient mediation of capital between the interests of a growing class of savers and alternative asset classes that can provide annuity income, such as real estate.
Lastly, for an economy and population the size of Nigeria’s, Mundy thinks there is a structural undersupply of investment grade real estate stock. This is changing, which will provide increasing opportunities, for both local and international investors.
He says JLL’s experience of other heavily pro-cyclical markets with a close tie in to commodity exports, such as Russia, suggests that in high growth markets, large vacancy rates and volatile rental growth are necessary at the early stage of the real estate cycle.
In line with these five key drivers the WAPI Summit theme is set in the same positive tone with ‘Changing the West African Narrative.’
Mr Mundy lists pipeline projects like Wings Office Complex, Royal Gardens Mall, Eko Atlantic, Lekki City and Landmark Village that will support the institutionalisation of the market and greater liquidity over the longer term.
Of course, the region is not without challenge. The unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) will create uncertainty, the trend of rising public sector indebtedness is a risk across most of Sub-Saharan Africa, and there is considerable political uncertainty around a potential successor for President Buhari.
Obstacles aside, sentiment across the sector is certainly improving, underpinned by quantifiable progress across several areas.
By Dipo Olowookere
About 0.04 per cent was recovered on Friday from the loss recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) the previous due to profit-taking.
Yesterday, investors were in the market with renewed vigour, mopping up stocks trading at relatively cheaper prices.
According to data, the insurance counter gained 0.41 per cent, the banking sector appreciated by 0.38 per cent, and the consumer goods index grew by 0.14 per cent.
The gains achieved by these three sectors were enough to lift Customs Street at the close of business despite the 0.26 per cent decline printed by the industrial goods segment and the 0.14 per cent loss suffered by the energy industry. The commodity counter was flat during the session.
A total of 43 equities gained weight on the last trading day of this week, while 26 equities shed weight, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Red Star Express increased its share price by 10.00 per cent to N13.20, NCR Nigeria grew by 9.97 per cent to N128.55, SCOA Nigeria inflated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, Omatek appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N1.77, and Deap Capital expanded by 9.85 per cent to N4.46.
On the flip side, McNichols decreased by 8.81 per cent to N6.00, Legend Internet crumbled by 7.56 per cent to N5.50, Cornerstone Insurance crashed by 6.48 per cent to N6.35, C&I Leasing contracted by 6.29 per cent to N8.20, and Austin Laz slipped by 5.78 per cent to N3.75.
Yesterday, 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion were transacted in 48,023 deals versus the 1.0 billion shares worth N31.6 billion executed in 51,227 deals in the preceding day, implying a shrink in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 46.01 per cent, 47.15 per cent, and 6.26 per cent apiece.
Zenith Bank was the most active for the day with 54.6 million stocks sold for N3.8 billion, Jaiz Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N359.4 million, Secure Electronic Technology transacted 37.7 million units valued at N39.2 million, Access Holdings exchanged 30.5 million units for N699.2 million, and Lasaco Assurance transacted 27.2 million units worth N68.3 million.
When the market closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 72.21 points to 166,129.50 points from 166,057.29 points and the market capitalisation gained N31 billion to N106.354 trillion from N106.323 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was a positive ending for the Naira this week after it further appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 16 by N1.33 or 0.09 per cent to sell for N1,417.95/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,419.28/$1.
The domestic currency also gained N2.41 against the Euro in the official market to close at N1,647.51/€1 versus the preceding session’s closing price of N1,649.92/€1, however, it suffered a N7.97 loss against the Pound Sterling in the same market window to trade at N1,901.32/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,893.35/£1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to quote at N1,427/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,425/$1, but strengthened against the greenback at the black market yesterday by N5 to settle at N1,485/$1 versus the N1,490/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
Improved supply conditions helped keep the market within range as exporters’ and importers’ inflows in addition to non-bank corporate supply enhanced liquidity as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made no visible intervention.
Stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and improving current account dynamics, continue to align with structural support in the wider economy.
Nigeria has seen projections of a stronger economic or gross domestic product (GDP) growth and lower inflation in 2026, with these forecasts citing improved macroeconomic fundamentals and reform impacts.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was mixed following selloff in precious metals and lower US stocks appeared to be denting crypto sentiment.
Gold and silver, both of which also enjoyed big rallies earlier this week, tumbled 1.2 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively while key US stock indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average — all reversed from early gains to modest losses in Friday trade.
Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 2.2 per cent to $0.1370, Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.8 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.7 per cent to $3,228.56, and Bitcoin (BTC) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $95,086.80.
Conversely, Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $74.48, Solana (SOL) rose by 0.4 per cent to $143.70, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 0.2 per cent to $0.3942, and Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.1 per cent to $935.88, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher amid lingering worries about a possible US military strike against Iran, a decision that may still occur over the weekend.
Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel after going up by 37 cents or 0.58 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $59.44 a barrel after it gained 25 cents or 0.42 per cent.
The US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea.
Market analysts noted that it doesn’t seem likely anything will happen soon. However, the weekends have become the perfect time for actions so as not offset the markets.
The market had risen after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4 per cent on Thursday as the American president said Iran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 4 per cent of global crude production, so it was not a coincidence that markets rallied sharply through Tuesday and Wednesday as President Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and posted that “help is on its way” to Iranian protesters, raising fears of potential US military strikes that sent prices surging toward multi-month highs.
Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela.
The Trump administration is exploring plans to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for US medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns, since not all all oil belongs in the reserve.
According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while US producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange.
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
Some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the US.
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