Economy
Looming Fed Meeting May Lead to Choppy Trading on Wall Street
By Investors Hub
Major U.S. index futures are pointing to a higher on Friday as traders digest the results of the election in the U.K. The upward momentum on Wall Street comes even though no party gained a clear majority in the U.K. election, resulting in a hung parliament.
Nonetheless, trading activity may be somewhat subdued on the day as traders look ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.6 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter point next week.
With the Fed widely expected to raise rates, traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement for clues about future rate hikes.
Stocks showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Thursday as traders kept an eye on developments on Capitol Hill. Despite the choppy trading, the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed to a new record closing high.
The major averages all closed in positive territory, although the Nasdaq outperformed its counterparts. While the Nasdaq rose 24.38 points or 0.4 percent to 6,321.76, the Dow edged up 8.84 points or less than 0.1 percent to 21,182.53 and the S&P 500 crept up 0.65 points or less than 0.1 percent to 2,433.79.
The lackluster performance on Wall Street came as traders focused on former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
The questioning of Comey came after his statement released by the committee on Wednesday appeared to confirm some recent reports about his interactions with Trump.
The statement included details of a conversation during which Trump seemed to ask Comey to drop an investigation of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn’s contact with Russian officials.
“I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go,” Trump said, according to Comey.
Comey told the committee he took the comment from Trump as a directive but said the determination of whether the request amounted to obstruction of justice would be up to Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
However, Trump’s personal attorney Marc Kasowitz rejected many of Comey’s claims, denying the allegation that the president called for an end of the investigation of Flynn.
The European Central Bank announced its latest monetary policy decision earlier in the day, with the ECB leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
The ECB said interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time but dropped any reference to a future rate cut.
In his subsequent statement, ECB President Mario Draghi lowered the outlook for euro area inflation, citing lower oil prices.
Steel stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the trading session, driving the NYSE Arca Steel Index up by 2.9 percent. Ryerson (RYI) and Olympic Steel (ZEUS) posted standout gains.
The strength among steel stocks came as comments from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross suggested the administration is preparing new steel import restrictions.
Considerable strength was also visible among financial stocks, with the Dow Jones Banks Index and the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index climbing by 1.7 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.
Semiconductor, computer hardware, and internet stocks also saw notable strength, helping to lift the tech-heavy Nasdaq to a new record closing high.
On the other hand, gold stocks showed a substantial move to the downside, dragging the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down by 1.8 percent. The weakness among gold stocks came amid a steep drop by the price of the precious metal.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Energy stocks influenced the 4.76 per cent loss recorded by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, December 5.
The culprits were the duo of 11 Plc and Nipco Plc,with the former shedding N32.17 to end at N291.83 per share compared with the previous day’s N324.00 per share, and the latter down by N21.00 to sell at N195.00 per unit versus the previous session’s N216.00 per unit.
Consequently, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slumped by 170.16 points to 3,401.37 points from 3,571.53 points and the market capitalisation lost N101.81 billion to close at N2.035 billion from the N2.136 trillion quoted in the preceding session.
The OTC securities exchange suffered the decline yesterday despite the share prices of three companies closing green.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was up by N1.80 to close at N39.80 per share compared with Thursday’s price of N38.00 per share, Air Liquide Plc appreciated by N1.09 to N11.99 per unit from N10.90 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by 78 Kobo to N56.57 per share from N55.79 per share.
During the session, the volume of transactions rose by 6,885.3 per cent to 18.2 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of transactions ballooned by 10,301.7 per cent to N389.7 million from N347.2 million, but the number of deals declined by 29.7 per cent to 26 deals from 37 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units valued at N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units worth N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units worth N524.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira depreciated further against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, December 5, as FX demand pressure mounts.
The Nigerian currency lost N2.60 or 0.18 per cent against the greenback to close at N1,450.43/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.83/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency declined against the Pound Sterling in the official forex market during the session by N4.48 to trade at N1,935.45/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,930.97/£1 and shrank against the Euro by 43 Kobo to end at N1,689.17/€1 versus the preceding session’s rate of N1,688.74/€1.
Similarly, the local currency performed badly against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to close at N1,455/$1 versus Thursday’s N1,453/$1 but traded flat at the parallel market at N14.65/$1.
As the country gets into the festive period, pressure mounted on the local currency reflecting higher foreign payments and lower FX inflows.
However, there are expectations that the Nigerian currency will be stable, supported by interventions by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the face of steady dollar Demand and inflows from Detty December festivities that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month.
Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450/$1 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.
As for the crypto market, it was down yesterday due to profit-taking associated with year-end trading. However, the December 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation by the University of Michigan fell to 4.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent previously and 4.5 per cent expected. The 5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 3.2 per cent from 3.4 per cent previously and 3.4 per cent expected.
With the dearth of official economic data of late, these private surveys have taken on a new level of significance and the market banks of them to make decisions.
Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 5.7 per cent to $0.4142, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 5.1 per cent to $0.1394, Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 3.9 per cent to $3,039.75, Solana (SOL) declined by 3.8 per cent to $133.24, and Litecoin (LTC) fell by 3.7 per cent to $80.59.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 2.6 per cent to sell at $89,683.72, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 2.2 per cent to $883.59, and Ripple (XRP) shrank by 2.1 per cent to $2.04, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market was up on Friday on increasing expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, which could boost economic growth and energy demand.
Brent futures rose by 49 cents or 0.8 per cent to $63.75 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 41 cents or 0.7 per cent to $60.08 per barrel.
Investors digested a US inflation report and recalibrated expectations for the Federal Reserve to reduce rates at its December 9-10 meeting.
US consumer spending increased moderately in September after three straight months of solid gains, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the third quarter as a lackluster labor market and the rising cost of living curbed demand.
Traders have been pricing in an 87 per cent chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Investors also focused on news from Russia and Venezuela to determine whether oil supplies from the two sanctioned members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) will increase or decrease in the future.
The failure of US talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine has helped to boost oil prices so far this week.
A loss of Venezuelan oil production in case of a US military intervention will materially impact global benchmark prices as the market will have to replace Venezuela’s heavy crude.
Venezuela is estimated to pump about 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil at present, so if the US-Venezuela tension escalation into an invasion in the South American country, this volume of crude would be at risk.
Reuters reported that the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban in a bid to reduce the oil revenue that helps finance Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Any deal that could lift sanctions on Russia, the world’s second-biggest crude producer after the US, could increase the amount of oil available to global markets, weakening prices.
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