By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigeria’s headline inflation for September 2024 is expected to slightly move up by 0.06 per cent to 32.21 per cent from the 32.15 per cent recorded in August 2024, analysts at Meristem Research have predicted.
This moderate uptick will occur despite a further marginal contraction in food inflation driven by an improved supply of key staples as the harvest season progresses.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers for last month on Tuesday, October 15, 2024.
Last month, the agency announced that inflation cooled for the second straight month in August after rising to a 28-year high of 34.19 per cent in June 2024 as a result of high food prices, energy costs and others.
But in July, it retreated to 33.40 per cent and further eased to 32.15 per cent a month later as a result of a reduction in food inflation to 37.52 per cent, its lowest level since February 2024.
In a note obtained by Business Post, Meristem Research said the ongoing harvest season has improved the supply of key staples like yam, tomatoes and plantain.
However, core inflation edged higher, with the core index rising marginally by 11 basis points to 27.58 per cent, from 27.56 per cent in July, reflecting upward pressure from transportation, accommodation and other non-food components.
“We anticipate a moderate decline in food inflation for September, supported by an improved supply of key staples as the harvest season progresses. However, this could be tempered by the pass-through effect of increased fuel prices on 4transportation costs, potentially driving up food prices, as fuel costs saw a sharp increase during the month.
“For core inflation, we anticipate an upward trend, primarily driven by a 42.68 per cent surge in petroleum prices due to fuel scarcity, which significantly raised transport costs.
“Additionally, the slight depreciation of the Naira (4.31 per cent) in September further supports this outlook.
“Ultimately, we project a moderate uptick in the country’s headline inflation for the month, influenced by these combined factors,” the firm stated.
It predicted that food inflation will slow to 37.26 per cent from 37.52 per cent in August 2024, and core inflation will hit 27.94 per cent versus 27.58 per cent in August 2024.
