Economy
Moody’s Upgrades Nigeria to B3 Amid Improved External, Fiscal Positions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Credit ratings agency, Moody’s, has upgraded Nigeria’s rating by to B3 from Caa1, in its latest report on Friday, due to significant improvements in the country’s external and fiscal positions.
The company noted that the recent overhaul of Nigeria’s foreign exchange management framework has markedly improved the balance of payments and bolstered the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) external reserves.
“The upgrade reflects significant improvements in Nigeria’s external and fiscal positions. A more flexible exchange rate has greatly bolstered external reserves. Concurrently, the removal of oil subsidies has alleviated budgetary spending pressures,” it said.
It noted that initially, these policy shifts posed inflationary risks, with, as a result, a potential for policy reversal.
Earlier this month, the World Bank said that Nigeria’s economy achieved its fastest growth in about a decade in 2024, driven by a strong fourth quarter and an improved fiscal position but warned that persistently high inflation remains a challenge.
For Moody’s inflationary risks in Nigeria, driven by policy shifts, have diminished.
“These risks have now diminished, with inflation and domestic borrowing costs showing nascent signs of easing, giving us confidence that the policy changes are becoming more entrenched,” it said in the statement.
The agency also revised Nigeria’s outlook to “stable” from “positive”, as it expects recent progress on external and fiscal fronts to continue, though at a slower pace, if oil prices fall.
“The stable outlook reflects our expectations that external and fiscal improvements will decelerate but will not reverse entirely,” Moody’s said.
Moody’s also said the recent overhaul of Nigeria’s foreign exchange management framework carried out in 2023 has markedly improved the balance of payments and bolstered the CBN’s foreign exchange reserves.
“This reform has also strengthened the non-oil segment of the balance of payments, thereby reducing Nigeria’s vulnerability to declining oil prices. Although under our baseline assumption oil prices will decline by 16 per cent in 2025, this will moderate the positive dynamics but will not reverse it.”
The FX framework eliminated multiple foreign exchange rate windows and established a unified forex market. Currently, the Naira trades around N1,586 per Dollar.
“The forex market reforms have yielded two major benefits: first, the naira is now more accurately priced by the market, correcting its previous overvaluation and facilitating significant external rebalancing. Secondly, there is now a more efficient distribution of forex liquidity within the economy and CBN reserves,” Moody’s added.
Economy
Uzoka-Anite Warns Against Inflation Risks from Oil, Gas Earnings Surge
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of State for Finance and chairman of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, has cautioned that a projected surge in oil and gas revenues following President Bola Tinubu’s latest executive order could trigger inflationary pressures and exchange rate volatility if not carefully managed.
She said that the recent executive order mandating the direct remittance of certain oil sector revenues to the federation account would provide regulatory clarity and significantly strengthen revenues accruing to the federation account, but warned that sudden liquidity injections into the economy may complicate monetary policy coordination with the Central Bank of Nigeria and erode the real value of allocations to federal, state and local governments.
While addressing members of FAAC in Abuja, Mrs Uzoka-Anite commended President Tinubu on the order, describing the development as a structural fiscal correction aimed at restoring constitutional discipline to petroleum revenue management and enhancing distributable income across the three tiers of government.
She said that the revenue outlook was improving due to ongoing structural reforms introduced by the Federal Government.
According to her, the newly implemented tax reform measures are broadening the tax base, improving compliance and enhancing administrative efficiency.
“Also, the executive order signed by Mr President on February 13 is reinforcing revenue discipline in the oil and gas sector and reducing leakages,” she said.
The minister said that the order suspends the 30 per cent allocation to the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF) and suspends the 30 per cent management fee on oil and gas profit payable to NNPC Limited.
She said that the order also directed that gas flare penalties be paid into the federation account, and mandated full remittance of petroleum revenues without unconstitutional deductions.
Mrs Uzoka-Anite said that the reform marks a shift from a retention-based oil revenue model to a gross remittance, federation-first model.
“The implications for FAAC are very significant; more oil and gas profit will now flow directly into the federation account.
“Gas flare penalties will become distributable revenue, and previously retained management fees will no longer reduce remittable inflows,” she said.
She said that the reforms were expected to result in higher monthly gross inflows into the federation account, and increased allocations to federal, state and local governments.
The minister said that a retrospective audit of the FFF, the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure, was due, and NNPC management fee deductions could lead to recoveries that may provide a one-off fiscal boost.
She welcomed the improved revenue outlook and cautioned against the risks associated with sudden liquidity injections.
“Experience shows that when revenues rise sharply and are distributed fully and immediately, large liquidity injections can increase inflationary pressures, complicate monetary management and reduce the real purchasing power of allocations,” she said.
She said that excess aggregate demand, exchange rate pressure, asset price distortions and inflationary risks could arise if increased inflows were not carefully managed.
Mrs Uzoka-Anite said that to mitigate such risks, she proposed phased disbursement of one-off recoveries.
She suggested that retrospective recoveries be staggered rather than injected into the economy in bulk, with a portion temporarily warehoused in a stabilisation buffer.
She also recommended strengthening the excess crude and stabilisation buffer mechanism to channel part of incremental inflows into a fiscal stabilisation window.
“This could offset revenue shortfalls in weaker months and reduce procyclicality in spending.
According to her, enhanced coordination with the CBN would be pursued to align fiscal injections with liquidity management tools and support open market operations where necessary.
Mrs Uzoka-Anite urged states and federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to prioritise capital expenditure over recurrent expenditure.
She called for investment in infrastructure, agriculture, energy and other productive sectors, and avoid unsustainable wage or consumption spikes.
“Productive spending expands supply capacity and mitigates inflation,” she said.
She also announced plans to introduce monthly revenue transparency dashboards, production-to-remittance reconciliation reporting, and clear reporting of incremental inflows arising from tax reforms and the executive order.
The junior finance minister said that the reforms presented an opportunity to deepen fiscal federalism, enhance distributable revenue, restore constitutional clarity and strengthen trust among tiers of government.
She also advised that increased revenue must not translate into fiscal complacency.
“We must resist the temptation to treat incremental inflows as permanent windfalls. We should reduce debt burdens, clear arrears responsibly, build buffers and invest in growth-enhancing sectors,” she said.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Shares to be Available to Public in Five Months
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chairman of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, has said that within the next five months, Nigerians should be able to purchase shares of Dangote Petroleum and Refinery.
Mr Dangote made this revelation on Sunday during a tour of the facility by the chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mr Bayo Ojulari, alongside members of the company’s executive management.
The $20 billion refinery is the largest single-train refinery in the world with 650,000 barrels per day refining capacity. There are efforts to boost the capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day soon.
Speaking with journalists, Mr Dangote said, “And the other issue is that they (NNPC) are holding 7.25 per cent of the shares that we have here, which is more than the shares Elon Musk has in Tesla. And they are holding that on behalf of Nigerians,” he said.
“So individually, Nigerians too will have an opportunity in the next, maybe a maximum of four to five months. There will actually be an opportunity to buy the shares.”
He added that shareholders will have the option to receive their dividends in either naira or dollars, as the refinery also earns in dollars.
Commenting on Mr Ojulari’s visit, the billionaire businessman said the NNPC, represented by Mr Ojulari and its management team, was not just a guest but a shareholder.
“Today is really our best day ever” at the facility. I know NNPC invested in us when we were not really sure whether the refinery would be successful.
“So that’s the kind of level of confidence. But right now, the relationship with the new set of people that we have at NNPC, I think the sky is the limit, and we will cooperate and also make sure that we work together to make sure that we make Nigerians proud.”
Speaking on prospects of partnership with NNPC in the upstream sector, he said, “We have block 71, 72, but we’re going to look much deeper”.
“Most likely, depending on our own discussions with them, we will partner with them, maybe in some of the upstream. They, too, will partner with us here because here is not just a refinery, it’s an industrial hub.
“And that’s why we’re doing linear alkaline benzene, which is a raw material for detergents, ” he added.
Economy
NGX Investigates Zichis Stocks After 859% Rise in One Month
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited has launched an investigation into trading activities on the shares of Zichis Agro-Allied Industries Plc.
A notice from Customs Street on Monday disclosed that this has led to the suspension of the company for now.
This development comes about a month after Zichis was listed on the domestic bourse and placed in the growth board of the NGX.
In the circular, it was disclosed that the suspension may be lifted after the conclusion of the findings, but for now, investors will not be able to trade the organisation’s securities on the NGX platform.
“The suspension of trading in Zichis shares shall be lifted upon the conclusion of an investigation into the trading activities on the company’s shares,” a part of the disclosure stated.
The bourse explained that it wielded the big stick on Zichis in compliance with Rule 7.0, Rules on Suspension of Trading in Listed Securities, Rulebook of The Exchange (Issuers’ Rules).
This part of the law states that, “Notwithstanding any of the foregoing provisions, the exchange may, in accordance with any of its rules, place the trading of any security on suspension.
“It may also do so if it is of the view that such suspension will be in the interest of the investing public and in accordance with the SEC Rules.”
In announcing the action on the firm, the NGX declared that, “The shares of Zichis Agro-Allied Industries Plc have been suspended from trading on the facilities of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), effective today, Monday, February 23, 2026.”
Business Post reports that last week, shares of Zichis appreciated by 60.74 per cent to N17.36. It joined the stock exchange at N1.81, indicating it has gained N15.55 or 859.12 per cent in one month.
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