By Adedapo Adesanya

Fitch Ratings has projected Nigeria’s external debt service to reach $5.2 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2024, though it maintained a stable outlook for the country in its latest rating.

The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.

The rating firm had upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.

The $5.2 billion in debt service, according to Fitch, includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November.

The development highlights the growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms by the federal government.

Fitch noted, “The government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to $3.5 billion in 2026.”

It warned that although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns, adding that general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.

However, it expressed concerns over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.

“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” it stated.

The company observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41 billion at the end of 2024, before declining to $38 billion due to debt service payments.

Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies, adding that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.

“Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term,” a part of the report stated.

It commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy, noting that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.

However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Katsina State government has attracted an investment worth about $500 million for the development, financing and execution of a series of major energy infrastructure projects across the state.

The state government recently sealed the deal with a United Kingdom-based leading Pan-African clean energy infrastructure development and asset management company, Genesis Energy Holding.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the two parties outlines a strategic partnership for the development, financing, construction, operation, and maintenance of key energy projects.

In addition, these projects aim to accelerate the industrialisation and socio-economic advancement of Katsina State and provide clean, reliable, and sustainable energy solutions for the region.

It also provides the framework for the collaborative development of a diverse portfolio of energy projects, focusing on solar, wind, hydro, mini-grids, and natural gas solutions.

The Governor of Katsina State, Mr Dikko Radda, described the partnership as “a significant step toward providing reliable, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly power solutions, fostering economic growth, and attracting investments to Katsina State.”

“This MOU represents a major milestone in our ongoing efforts to build resilient infrastructure that will not only address Katsina’s immediate energy needs but also lay the foundation for a prosperous and greener future for generations to come.

“The first of the series of projects being constructed under this partnership will shortly be commissioned before the end of this April 2025,” he added.

On his part, the Chairman and CEO of Genesis Energy, Mr Akin II Omoboriowo, noted that, “Lighting Up Africa is more than just a vision for Genesis; it is the very heartbeat that drives us. We are committed to enduring the rigorous process of developing and financing projects to bring sustainable energy solutions to the continent.

“For Genesis Energy, this marks a significant milestone as we continue to actively partner with Katsina State in achieving energy independence, creating a pivotal opportunity to industrialize the state and position it as a major player in clean and renewable energy generation.”

The primary objective of this collaboration is to address the state’s growing energy needs and support the Nigerian Government’s broader energy security and sustainability goals.

The MOU lays the foundation for creating a multi-phased energy platform that will provide power to critical sectors, including healthcare, industry, and agriculture while contributing to the regional transition to a green economy.

The key initiative of the MOU involves powering critical sectors and providing critical energy infrastructure across key sites across the State, deploying suitable energy technologies.

Phase One of the projects is expected to be executed concurrently across multiple initiatives, aimed at promoting energy independence, facilitating industrialisation, creating jobs, and displacing significant amounts of CO² emissions.